Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone

Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFP^LM) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFP^LM over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O3 could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise

The return to 1980 stratospheric halogen levels: A moving target in ozone assessments from 2006 to 2022

The international scientific assessment of ozone depletion is prepared every four years to support decisions made by the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. In each assessment an outlook of ozone recovery time is provided. The year when equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) returns to the level found in 1980 is an important metric for the recovery of the ozone layer. Over the past five assessments, the expected date for the return of EESC to the 1980 level, for mid-latitudes, has been delayed, from year 2049 in the 2006 assessment to 2066 in the 2022 assessment, which represents a delay of 17 years over a 16-year assessment period. Here, we quantify the primary drivers that have delayed the expected EESC recovery date between each of these assessments. We find that by using identical EESC formulations the delay between the 2006 and 2022 assessment’s expected return of EESC to 1980 levels is shortened to 12.6 years. Of this delay, bank calculation methods account for ~4 years, changes in the assumed atmospheric lifetime for certain ODSs account for ~3.5 years, an under-estimate of the emission of CCl4 accounts for ~3 years, and updated historical mole fraction estimates of ODSs account for ~1 year. Since some of the underlying causes of these delays are amenable to future controls (e.g. capture of ODSs from banks and limitations on future feedstock emissions), it is important to understand the reasons for the delays in expected recovery date of stratospheric halogens

Chemical ozone loss in the Arctic winter 1991–1992

Chemical ozone loss in winter 1991–1992 is recalculated based on observations of the HALOE satellite instrument, Version 19, ER-2 aircraft measurements and balloon data. HALOE satellite observations are shown to be reliable in the lower stratosphere below 400 K, at altitudes where the measurements are most likely disturbed by the enhanced sulfate aerosol loading, as a result of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption in June 1991. Significant chemical ozone loss (13–17 DU) is observed below 380 K from Kiruna balloon observations and HALOE satellite data between December 1991 and March 1992. For the two winters after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, HALOE satellite observations show a stronger extent of chemical ozone loss towards lower altitudes compared to other Arctic winters between 1991 and 2003. In spite of already occurring deactivation of chlorine in March 1992, MIPAS-B and LPMA balloon observations indicate that chlorine was still activated at lower altitudes, consistent with observed chemical ozone loss occurring between February and March and April. Large chemical ozone loss of more than 70 DU in the Arctic winter 1991–1992 as calculated in earlier studies is corroborated here

The Effect of Representing Bromine from VSLS on the Simulation and Evolution of Antarctic Ozone

We use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM), a contributor to both the 2010 and 2014 WMO Ozone Assessment Reports, to show that inclusion of 5 parts per trillion (ppt) of stratospheric bromine(Br(sub y)) from very short lived substances (VSLS) is responsible for about a decade delay in ozone hole recovery. These results partially explain the significantly later recovery of Antarctic ozone noted in the 2014 report, as bromine from VSLS was not included in the 2010 Assessment. We show multiple lines of evidence that simulations that account for VSLS Br(sub y) are in better agreement with both total column BrO and the seasonal evolution of Antarctic ozone reported by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASAs Aura satellite. In addition, the near zero ozone levels observed in the deep Antarctic lower stratospheric polar vortex are only reproduced in a simulation that includes this Br(sub y) source from VSLS

Observed Relationship of Ozone air Pollution with Temperature and Emissions

Higher temperatures caused by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to exacerbate photochemical smog if precursor emissions remain constant. We perform a statistical analysis of 21 years of ozone and temperature observations across the rural eastern U.S. The climate penalty factor is defined as the slope of the ozone/temperature relationship. For two precursor emission regimes, before and after 2002, the climate penalty factor was consistent across the distribution of ozone observations. Prior to 2002, ozone increased by an average of ~3.2 ppbv/°C. After 2002, power plant NOx emissions were reduced by 43%, ozone levels fell ~10%, and the climate penalty factor dropped to ~2.2 ppbv/°C. NOx controls are effective for reducing photochemical smog and might lessen the severity of projected climate change penalties. Air quality models should be evaluated against these observations, and the climate penalty factor metric may be useful for evaluating the response of ozone to climate change

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder OH measurements with Fourier Transform Ultra-Violet Spectrometer total OH column measurements at Table Mountain, California

The first seasonal and interannual validation of OH measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) has been conducted using ground-based OH column measurements from the Fourier Transform Ultra-Violet Spectrometer (FTUVS) over the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Table Mountain Facility (TMF) during 2004–2007. To compare with FTUVS total column measurements, MLS OH vertical profiles over TMF are integrated to obtain partial OH columns above 21.5 hPa, which covers nearly 90% of the total column. The tropospheric OH and the lower stratopheric OH not measured by MLS are estimated using GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System)-Chem and a Harvard 2-D model implemented within GEOS-Chem, respectively. A number of field observations and calculations from a photochemical box model are compared to OH profiles from these models to estimate the variability in the lower atmospheric OH and thus the uncertainty in the combined total OH columns from MLS and models. In general, the combined total OH columns agree extremely well with TMF total OH columns, especially during seasons with high OH. In winter with low OH, the combined columns are often higher than TMF measurements. A slightly weaker seasonal variation is observed by MLS relative to TMF. OH columns from TMF and the combined total columns from MLS and models are highly correlated, resulting in a mean slope of 0.969 with a statistically insignificant intercept. This study therefore suggests that column abundances derived from MLS vertical profiles have been validated to within the mutual systematic uncertainties of the MLS and FTUVS measurements

Near IR photolysis of HO_2NO_2: Implications for HO_x

We report observations and calculations of peroxynitric acid, HO_2NO_2, in the stratosphere and upper troposphere. The simulations show that photolysis of HO_2NO_2 via excitation of purely vibrational modes at wavelengths longward of 760 nm (the near IR) can dominate loss of this species. Consideration of this photolytic pathway reduces calculated HO_2NO_2, resolving a large discrepancy between standard model calculations and observations of HO_2NO_2 at high-latitude spring. The lower calculated abundance of HO_2NO_2 reduces the efficiency of the OH + HO_2NO_2 sink of HO_x. Consideration of this process leads to large increases in calculated HO_x (20 to 60%) for high-latitude spring and better agreement with observed stratospheric abundances of HO_x. Near IR photolysis of HO_2NO_2 alters the coupling between NO_x and HO_x in stratospheric and upper tropospheric photochemical models

Measurement of HO2 and other trace gases in the stratosphere using a high resolution far-infrared spectrometer

This report covers the time period 1 January 1994 to 31 December 1994. During this reporting period we had our fourth Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) correlative balloon flight; the data from this flight have been reduced and submitted to the UARS CDHF. We have spent most of the past year analyzing data from this and past flights. For example, using data from our September 1989 balloon flight we have demonstrated for the first time ever that the rates of production and loss of ozone are in balance in the upper stratosphere. As part of this analysis, we have completed the most detailed study to date of radical partitioning throughout the stratosphere. We have also produced the first measurement of HBr and HOBr mixing ratio profiles over a full diurnal cycle