Model-based inference of conditional extreme value distributions with hydrological applications

Multivariate extreme value models are used to estimate joint risk in a number of applications, with a particular focus on environmental fields ranging from climatology and hydrology to oceanography and seismic hazards. The semi-parametric conditional extreme value model of Heffernan and Tawn involving a multivariate regression provides the most suitable of current statistical models in terms of its flexibility to handle a range of extremal dependence classes. However, the standard inference for the joint distribution of the residuals of this model suffers from the curse of dimensionality because, in a d-dimensional application, it involves a d−1-dimensional nonparametric density estimator, which requires, for accuracy, a number points and commensurate effort that is exponential in d. Furthermore, it does not allow for any partially missing observations to be included, and a previous proposal to address this is extremely computationally intensive, making its use prohibitive if the proportion of missing data is nontrivial. We propose to replace the d−1-dimensional nonparametric density estimator with a model-based copula with univariate marginal densities estimated using kernel methods. This approach provides statistically and computationally efficient estimates whatever the dimension, d, or the degree of missing data. Evidence is presented to show that the benefits of this approach substantially outweigh potential misspecification errors. The methods are illustrated through the analysis of UK river flow data at a network of 46 sites and assessing the rarity of the 2015 floods in North West England

Vaccination with DNA plasmids expressing Gn coupled to C3d or alphavirus replicons expressing Gn protects mice against rift valley fever virus

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an arthropod-borne viral zoonosis. Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an important biological threat with the potential to spread to new susceptible areas. In addition, it is a potential biowarfare agent. Methodology/Principal Findings: We developed two potential vaccines, DNA plasmids and alphavirus replicons, expressing the Gn glycoprotein of RVFV alone or fused to three copies of complement protein, C3d. Each vaccine was administered to mice in an all DNA, all replicon, or a DNA prime/replicon boost strategy and both the humoral and cellular responses were assessed. DNA plasmids expressing Gn-C3d and alphavirus replicons expressing Gn elicited high titer neutralizing antibodies that were similar to titers elicited by the live-attenuated MP12 virus. Mice vaccinated with an inactivated form of MP12 did elicit high titer antibodies, but these antibodies were unable to neutralize RVFV infection. However, only vaccine strategies incorporating alphavirus replicons elicited cellular responses to Gn. Both vaccines strategies completely prevented weight loss and morbidity and protected against lethal RVFV challenge. Passive transfer of antisera from vaccinated mice into naïve mice showed that both DNA plasmids expressing Gn-C3d and alphavirus replicons expressing Gn elicited antibodies that protected mice as well as sera from mice immunized with MP12. Conclusion/Significance: These results show that both DNA plasmids expressing Gn-C3d and alphavirus replicons expressing Gn administered alone or in a DNA prime/replicon boost strategy are effective RVFV vaccines. These vaccine strategies provide safer alternatives to using live-attenuated RVFV vaccines for human use. © 2010 Bhardwaj et al

Functional status predicts acute care readmissions from inpatient rehabilitation in the stroke population

Objective: Acute care readmission risk is an increasingly recognized problem that has garnered significant attention, yet the reasons for acute care readmission in the inpatient rehabilitation population are complex and likely multifactorial. Information on both medical comorbidities and functional status is routinely collected for stroke patients participating in inpatient rehabilitation. We sought to determine whether functional status is a more robust predictor of acute care readmissions in the inpatient rehabilitation stroke population compared with medical comorbidities using a large, administrative data set. Methods: A retrospective analysis of data from the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation from the years 2002 to 2011 was performed examining stroke patients admitted to inpatient rehabilitation facilities. A Basic Model for predicting acute care readmission risk based on age and functional status was compared with models incorporating functional status and medical comorbidities (Basic-Plus) or models including age and medical comorbidities alone (Age-Comorbidity). C-statistics were compared to evaluate model performance. Findings: There were a total of 803,124 patients: 88,187 (11%) patients were transferred back to an acute hospital: 22,247 (2.8%) within 3 days, 43,481 (5.4%) within 7 days, and 85,431 (10.6%) within 30 days. The C-statistics for the Basic Model were 0.701, 0.672, and 0.682 at days 3, 7, and 30 respectively. As compared to the Basic Model, the best-performing Basic-Plus model was the Basic+Elixhauser model with C-statistics differences of +0.011, +0.011, and + 0.012, and the best-performing Age-Comorbidity model was the Age+Elixhauser model with C-statistic differences of -0.124, -0.098, and -0.098 at days 3, 7, and 30 respectively. Conclusions: Readmission models for the inpatient rehabilitation stroke population based on functional status and age showed better predictive ability than models based on medical comorbidities

Heterogeneously catalyzed hydrothermal processing of C5-C6 sugars

Biomass has been long exploited as an anthropogenic energy source; however, the 21st century challenges of energy security and climate change are driving resurgence in its utilization both as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels and as a sustainable carbon feedstock for chemicals production. Deconstruction of cellulose and hemicellulose carbohydrate polymers into their constituent C5 and C6 sugars, and subsequent heterogeneously catalyzed transformations, offer the promise of unlocking diverse oxygenates such as furfural, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural, xylitol, sorbitol, mannitol, and gluconic acid as biorefinery platform chemicals. Here, we review recent advances in the design and development of catalysts and processes for C5-C6 sugar reforming into chemical intermediates and products, and highlight the challenges of aqueous phase operation and catalyst evaluation, in addition to process considerations such as solvent and reactor selection

Survival of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in retail pasteurised milk

A survey of retail purchased semi-skimmed pasteurised milk (n = 368) for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) was conducted between May 2014 and June 2015 across the midlands of England using the Phage-PCR assay. Overall, 10.3% of the total samples collected contained viable MAP cells, confirming that pasteurisation is not capable of fully eliminating human exposure to viable MAP through milk. Comparison of the results gained using the Phage-PCR assay with the results of surveys using either culture or direct PCR suggest that the phage-PCR assay is able to detect lower numbers of cells, resulting in an increase in the number of MAP-positive samples detected. Comparison of viable count and levels of MAP detected in bulk milk samples suggest that MAP is not primarily introduced into the milk by faecal contamination but rather are shed directly into the milk within the udder. In addition results detected an asymmetric distribution of MAP exists in the milk matrix prior to somatic cell lysis, indicating that the bacterial cells in naturally contaminated milk are clustered together and may primarily be located within somatic cells. These latter two results lead to the hypothesis that intracellular MAP within the somatic cells may be protected against heat inactivation during pasteurisation, accounting for the presence of low levels of MAP detected in retail milk

The Rift Valley fever accessory proteins NSm and P78/NSm-GN are distinct determinants of virus propagation in vertebrate and invertebrate hosts.: Role of NSm-related proteins in RVFV infection

International audienceRift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an enzootic virus circulating in Africa that is transmitted to its vertebrate host by a mosquito vector and causes severe clinical manifestations in humans and ruminants. RVFV has a tripartite genome of negative or ambisense polarity. The M segment contains five in-frame AUG codons that are alternatively used for the synthesis of two major structural glycoproteins, GN and GC, and at least two accessory proteins, NSm, a 14-kDa cytosolic protein, and P78/NSm-GN, a 78-kDa glycoprotein. To determine the relative contribution of P78 and NSm to RVFV infectivity, AUG codons were knocked out to generate mutant viruses expressing various sets of the M-encoded proteins. We found that, in the absence of the second AUG codon used to express NSm, a 13-kDa protein corresponding to an N-terminally truncated form of NSm, named NSm', was synthesized from AUG 3. None of the individual accessory proteins had any significant impact on RVFV virulence in mice. However, a mutant virus lacking both NSm and NSm' was strongly attenuated in mice and grew to reduced titers in murine macrophages, a major target cell type of RVFV. In contrast, P78 was not associated with reduced viral virulence in mice, yet it appeared as a major determinant of virus dissemination in mosquitoes. This study demonstrates how related accessory proteins differentially contribute to RVFV propagation in mammalian and arthropod hosts

Evolution and Survival on Eutherian Sex Chromosomes

Since the two eutherian sex chromosomes diverged from an ancestral autosomal pair, the X has remained relatively gene-rich, while the Y has lost most of its genes through the accumulation of deleterious mutations in nonrecombining regions. Presently, it is unclear what is distinctive about genes that remain on the Y chromosome, when the sex chromosomes acquired their unique evolutionary rates, and whether X-Y gene divergence paralleled that of paralogs located on autosomes. To tackle these questions, here we juxtaposed the evolution of X and Y homologous genes (gametologs) in eutherian mammals with their autosomal orthologs in marsupial and monotreme mammals. We discovered that genes on the X and Y acquired distinct evolutionary rates immediately following the suppression of recombination between the two sex chromosomes. The Y-linked genes evolved at higher rates, while the X-linked genes maintained the lower evolutionary rates of the ancestral autosomal genes. These distinct rates have been maintained throughout the evolution of X and Y. Specifically, in humans, most X gametologs and, curiously, also most Y gametologs evolved under stronger purifying selection than similarly aged autosomal paralogs. Finally, after evaluating the current experimental data from the literature, we concluded that unique mRNA/protein expression patterns and functions acquired by Y (versus X) gametologs likely contributed to their retention. Our results also suggest that either the boundary between sex chromosome strata 3 and 4 should be shifted or that stratum 3 should be divided into two strata