Assessing U.S. Travelers’ Trade-offs for Aviation Safety Objectives: A Natural Experiment

Understanding air travelers’ values for aviation safety is essential to design effective and well-accepted security measures. This study investigates changes in U.S. travelers trade-offs for passenger screening objectives using the occurrence of an international aviation incident (loss of Malaysian Airline Flight 370) as a natural experiment. We also examine how alternative screening procedures affect trade-offs between equity and safety concerns. Results show evidence for an enduring effect of the aviation incident on trade-offs between safety and other passenger screening objectives. Additionally, the use of different procedures to select high-risk passengers for enhanced screening altered the relative importance of the equity objective. Implications for the design of future airport security policies are discussed

Worth the risk? Terrorism-induced fear of flying

We conducted two bi-national experiments regarding emotional and behavioral responses to a terrorist plot against commercial flights, examining both feelings and projected action. The studies employed hypothetical scenarios in which terrorists attacked airplanes with shoulder-fired missiles as they were landing or taking off from an international airport. The scenarios were built around two factorially crossed manipulated variables, each with three levels: (1) government announcements or actions (2) social norm, expressed as variation in airline ticket sales. Each respondent read a questionnaire containing only one of the nine scenarios. Experiment 1 was conducted in Spain and California (n = 360, 50% female), Experiment 2 in Israel and California (n = 504, 50% female). In both studies, fear and flight plans were not differentially affected by governmental response or social norm. Women expressed more fear than men. Experiment 1 examined the purpose of the trip. Most respondents would not change a planned flight to attend a close friend’s wedding or important job interview, but a substantial number would postpone a vacation or drive to a different location. Experiment 2 featured escalating attacks. These yielded increased fear and more canceled trips. Within both studies, responses were similar across countries despite national differences in direct experience with terrorism

¿Vale la pena el riesgo? Miedo inducido por el terrorismo a volar

We conducted two bi-national experiments regarding emotional and behavioral responses to a terrorist plot against commercial flights, examining both feelings and projected action. The studies employed hypothetical scenarios in which terrorists attacked airplanes with shoulder-fired missiles as they were landing or taking off from an international airport. The scenarios were built around two factorially crossed manipulated variables, each with three levels: (1) government announcements or actions (2) social norm, expressed as variation in airline ticket sales. Each respondent read a questionnaire containing only one of the nine scenarios. Experiment 1 was conducted in Spain and California (n = 360, 50% female), Experiment 2 in Israel and California (n = 504, 50% female). In both studies, fear and flight plans were not differentially affected by governmental response or social norm. Women expressed more fear than men. Experiment 1 examined the purpose of the trip. Most respondents would not change a planned flight to attend a close friend’s wedding or important job interview, but a substantial number would postpone a vacation or drive to a different location. Experiment 2 featured escalating attacks. These yielded increased fear and more canceled trips. Within both studies, responses were similar across countries despite national differences in direct experience with terrorism.Se realizaron dos experimentos bi-nacionales con respecto a las respuestas emocionales y conductuales a un plan terrorista contra vuelos comerciales, examinando ambas cosas: sentimientos y proyectos de acción. Los estudios emplearon escenarios hipotéticos en los que los terroristas atacaron los aviones con misiles disparados desde el hombro, ya que estaban aterrizando o despegando desde un aeropuerto internacional. Los escenarios fueron construidos alrededor de dos variables factoriales cruzadas, cada uno con tres niveles: (1) los anuncios o acciones del gobierno (2) norma social, expresada como la variación en la venta de billetes de avión. Cada encuestado leyó un cuestionario que contenía sólo uno de los nueve escenarios. El experimento 1 se realizó en España y California (n = 360, 50% mujeres), el experimento 2 en Israel y California (n = 504, 50% mujeres). En ambos estudios, el miedo y los planes de vuelo no fueron diferencialmente afectados por la respuesta gubernamental o la norma social. Las mujeres expresaron más miedo que los hombres. El experimento 1 examinó el propósito del viaje. La mayoría de los encuestados no cambiarían un vuelo planeado para asistir a la boda de un amigo cercano o para una importante entrevista de trabajo, pero un número considerable de participantes podrían posponer unas vacaciones o ir en coche a un lugar diferente. El experimento 2 contó con la escalada de los ataques. Estas aumentaron el temor y la cantidad de viajes cancelados. En ambos estudios, las respuestas fueron similares en todos los países a pesar de las diferencias nacionales y la experiencia directa con el terrorismo.Depto. de Economía Aplicada, Estructura e HistoriaFac. de Ciencias Económicas y EmpresarialesTRUEpu

Epigenome-wide association study of alcohol consumption in N = 8161 individuals and relevance to alcohol use disorder pathophysiology:identification of the cystine/glutamate transporter SLC7A11 as a top target

Alcohol misuse is common in many societies worldwide and is associated with extensive morbidity and mortality, often leading to alcohol use disorders (AUD) and alcohol-related end-organ damage. The underlying mechanisms contributing to the development of AUD are largely unknown; however, growing evidence suggests that alcohol consumption is strongly associated with alterations in DNA methylation. Identification of alcohol-associated methylomic variation might provide novel insights into pathophysiology and novel treatment targets for AUD. Here we performed the largest single-cohort epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) of alcohol consumption to date (N = 8161) and cross-validated findings in AUD populations with relevant endophenotypes, as well as alcohol-related animal models. Results showed 2504 CpGs significantly associated with alcohol consumption (Bonferroni p value < 6.8 × 10(−8)) with the five leading probes located in SLC7A11 (p = 7.75 × 10(−108)), JDP2 (p = 1.44 × 10(−56)), GAS5 (p = 2.71 × 10(−47)), TRA2B (p = 3.54 × 10(−42)), and SLC43A1 (p = 1.18 × 10(−40)). Genes annotated to associated CpG sites are implicated in liver and brain function, the cellular response to alcohol and alcohol-associated diseases, including hypertension and Alzheimer’s disease. Two-sample Mendelian randomization confirmed the causal relationship of consumption on AUD risk (inverse variance weighted (IVW) p = 5.37 × 10(−09)). A methylation-based predictor of alcohol consumption was able to discriminate AUD cases in two independent cohorts (p = 6.32 × 10(−38) and p = 5.41 × 10(−14)). The top EWAS probe cg06690548, located in the cystine/glutamate transporter SLC7A11, was replicated in an independent cohort of AUD and control participants (N = 615) and showed strong hypomethylation in AUD (p < 10(−17)). Decreased CpG methylation at this probe was consistently associated with clinical measures including increased heavy drinking days (p < 10(−4)), increased liver function enzymes (GGT (p = 1.03 × 10(−21)), ALT (p = 1.29 × 10(−6)), and AST (p = 1.97 × 10(−8))) in individuals with AUD. Postmortem brain analyses documented increased SLC7A11 expression in the frontal cortex of individuals with AUD and animal models showed marked increased expression in liver, suggesting a mechanism by which alcohol leads to hypomethylation-induced overexpression of SLC7A11. Taken together, our EWAS discovery sample and subsequent validation of the top probe in AUD suggest a strong role of abnormal glutamate signaling mediated by methylomic variation in SLC7A11. Our data are intriguing given the prominent role of glutamate signaling in brain and liver and might provide an important target for therapeutic intervention

Critical Infrastructure Protection Metrics and Tools; Probabilistic Project Management for a Terrorist Planning a Dirty Bomb Attack on a Major US Port [June 5-7, 2008] [video]

The article of record may be found here: http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=704589This video is of John Richard's presentation for the Critical Infrastructure Protection: Metrics and Tools workshop; the presentation is titled: Probabilistic Project Management. "Key topics of the conference included (1) Metrics: a discussion of how risk, consequence and vulnerability should be defined and measured and (2) tools: descriptions of implementations of various methodologies in the form of procedures, software applications, and case studies that a practitioner could directly apply to the problem of risk assessment of critical infrastructure.

Structuring Uncertainty and Conflicting Objectives for Life or Death Decisions Following an Urban Biological Catastrophe

21 pagesA large-scale biological terrorist attack would likely result in mass casualties and have major economic consequences for the affected area, and potentially for the nation as a whole. The extent to which an impacted area recovers from such losses depends in large part on the decision making of local residents. In this study we utilize scenario simulation, a methodology that uses video simulation of a news report to immerse respondents in the details and consequences of a biological terrorist attack. Specifically, we explore the decision-making of local residents to a large-scale terrorist attack using weaponized anthrax in the Seattle, Washington area. The scenario was based on one of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Planning Scenarios. This study focuses on structuring a decision model around the objectives and motivations that shape local residents’ decisions to act during recovery from an anthrax attack. The relevant uncertainties and objectives that drive residents’ decisions during response and recovery from the anthrax attack were developed using group scenario simulations with various stakeholders in Seattle. In the beginning stages of the crisis concerns about health predominate. Later concerns about financial security emerge. Throughout it appears that residents weigh their concerns for safety with the collective costs of leaving the Seattle area. The decision model produces several key insights that are critical to the development and implementation of recovery policies. A causal loop diagram is also presented that depicts the dynamic nature of this decision process

¿Vale la pena el riesgo? Miedo inducido por el terrorismo a volar

.We conducted two bi-national experiments regarding emotional and behavioral responses to a terrorist plot against commercial flights, examining both feelings and projected action. The studies employed hypothetical scenarios in which terrorists attacked airplanes with shoulder-fired missiles as they were landing or taking off from an international airport. The scenarios were built around two factorially crossed manipulated variables, each with three levels: (1) government announcements or actions (2) social norm, expressed as variation in airline ticket sales. Each respondent read a questionnaire containing only one of the nine scenarios. Experiment 1 was conducted in Spain and California (n = 360, 50% female), Experiment 2 in Israel and California (n = 504, 50% female). In both studies, fear and flight plans were not differentially affected by governmental response or social norm. Women expressed more fear than men. Experiment 1 examined the purpose of the trip. Most respondents would not change a planned flight to attend a close friend’s wedding or important job interview, but a substantial number would postpone a vacation or drive to a different location. Experiment 2 featured escalating attacks. These yielded increased fear and more canceled trips. Within both studies, responses were similar across countries despite national differences in direct experience with terrorism.Se realizaron dos experimentos bi-nacionales con respecto a las respuestas emocionales y conductuales a un plan terrorista contra vuelos comerciales, examinando ambas cosas: sentimientos y proyectos de acción. Los estudios emplearon escenarios hipotéticos en los que los terroristas atacaron los aviones con misiles disparados desde el hombro, ya que estaban aterrizando o despegando desde un aeropuerto internacional. Los escenarios fueron construidos alrededor de dos variables factoriales cruzadas, cada uno con tres niveles: (1) los anuncios o acciones del gobierno (2) norma social, expresada como la variación en la venta de billetes de avión. Cada encuestado leyó un cuestionario que contenía sólo uno de los nueve escenarios. El experimento 1 se realizó en España y California (n = 360, 50% mujeres), el experimento 2 en Israel y California (n = 504, 50% mujeres). En ambos estudios, el miedo y los planes de vuelo no fueron diferencialmente afectados por la respuesta gubernamental o la norma social. Las mujeres expresaron más miedo que los hombres. El experimento 1 examinó el propósito del viaje. La mayoría de los encuestados no cambiarían un vuelo planeado para asistir a la boda de un amigo cercano o para una importante entrevista de trabajo, pero un número considerable de participantes podrían posponer unas vacaciones o ir en coche a un lugar diferente. El experimento 2 contó con la escalada de los ataques. Estas aumentaron el temor y la cantidad de viajes cancelados. En ambos estudios, las respuestas fueron similares en todos los países a pesar de las diferencias nacionales y la experiencia directa con el terrorism