The Political Economy of Debt Moratoria, Bailouts and Bankruptcy

This paper develops a simple dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy, in which poor farmers borrow wheat from rich farmers to invest in their land. Since wheat output is stochastic (we allow for both idiosynchratic and aggregate shocks) there may be default ex-post. The main thrust of the paper is to compare equilibria in this economy with and without political intervention. This intervention is decided through majority voting and can take the form of a bailout or a moratorium. The results of our formal analysis are confronted with historial evidence from the Panic of 1819 in the U. S. With no aggregate uncertainty, the main results of the formal analysis are that allowing for debt moratoria and bailouts not only always improves ex-post efficiency but may improve ex-ante efficiency. Anticipated bailouts always occur in equilibrium and moratoria never occur, but the threat of moratoria enhances efficiency. With aggregate uncertainty, the differences between moratoria and bailouts may collapse, with both occurring only in bad times and improving ex-ante efficiency.

Intra-urban vulnerability to heat-related mortality in New York City, 1997–2006

AbstractThe health impacts of exposure to summertime heat are a significant problem in New York City (NYC) and for many cities and are expected to increase with a warming climate. Most studies on heat-related mortality have examined risk factors at the municipal or regional scale and may have missed the intra-urban variation of vulnerability that might inform prevention strategies. We evaluated whether place-based characteristics (socioeconomic/demographic and health factors, as well as the built and biophysical environment) may be associated with greater risk of heat-related mortality for seniors during heat events in NYC. As a measure of relative vulnerability to heat, we used the natural cause mortality rate ratio among those aged 65 and over (MRR65+), comparing extremely hot days (maximum heat index 100°F+) to all warm season days, across 1997–2006 for NYC’s 59 Community Districts and 42 United Hospital Fund neighborhoods. Significant positive associations were found between the MRR65+ and neighborhood-level characteristics: poverty, poor housing conditions, lower rates of access to air-conditioning, impervious land cover, surface temperatures aggregated to the area-level, and seniors’ hypertension. Percent Black/African American and household poverty were strong negative predictors of seniors’ air conditioning access in multivariate regression analysis

Drug resistance mediating Plasmodium falciparum polymorphisms and clinical presentations of parasitaemic children in Uganda.

BackgroundPlasmodium falciparum genetic polymorphisms that mediate altered drug sensitivity may impact upon virulence. In a cross-sectional study, Ugandan children with infections mutant at pfcrt K76T, pfmdr1 N86Y, or pfmdr1 D1246Y had about one-fourth the odds of symptomatic malaria compared to those with infections with wild type (WT) sequences. However, results may have been confounded by greater likelihood in those with symptomatic disease of higher density mixed infections and/or recent prior treatment that selected for WT alleles.MethodsPolymorphisms in samples from paired episodes of asymptomatic and symptomatic parasitaemia in 114 subjects aged 4-11 years were followed longitudinally in Tororo District, Uganda. Paired episodes occurred within 3-12 months of each other and had no treatment for malaria in the prior 60 days. The prevalence of WT, mixed, and mutant alleles was determined using multiplex ligase detection reaction-fluorescent microsphere assays.ResultsConsidering paired episodes in the same subject, the odds of symptomatic malaria were lower for infections with mutant compared to WT or mixed sequence at N86Y (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.09-0.79, p = 0.018), but not K76T or D1246Y. However, symptomatic episodes (which had higher densities) were more likely than asymptomatic to be mixed (for N86Y OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.04-4.0, p = 0.036). Excluding mixed infections, the odds of symptomatic malaria were lower for infections with mutant compared to WT sequence at N86Y (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.11-0.98, p = 0.046), but not the other alleles. However, if mixed genotypes were grouped with mutants in this analysis or assuming that mixed infections consisted of 50% WT and 50% mutant genotypes, the odds of symptomatic infection did not differ between infections that were mutant or WT at the studied alleles.ConclusionsAlthough infections with only the mutant pfmdr1 86Y genotype were associated with symptomatic infection, this association could primarily be explained by greater parasite densities and therefore greater prevalence of mixed infections in symptomatic children. These results indicate limited association between the tested polymorphisms and risk of symptomatic disease and highlight the value of longitudinal studies for assessing associations between parasite factors and clinical outcomes

Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate

Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O(3) concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O(3)-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O(3) in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O(3)-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O(3) precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O(3)-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O(3) precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O(3) mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change

Feasibility and beneficial effects of an early goal directed therapy after cardiac arrest: evaluation by conductance method

Although beneficial effects of an early goal directed therapy (EGDT) after cardiac arrest and successful return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) have been described, clinical implementation in this period seems rather difficult. The aim of the present study was to investigate the feasibility and the impact of EGDT on myocardial damage and function after cardiac resuscitation. A translational pig model which has been carefully adapted to the clinical setting was employed. After 8 min of cardiac arrest and successful ROSC, pigs were randomized to receive either EGDT (EGDT group) or therapy by random computer-controlled hemodynamic thresholds (noEGDT group). Therapeutic algorithms included blood gas analysis, conductance catheter method, thermodilution cardiac output and transesophageal echocardiography. Twenty-one animals achieved successful ROSC of which 13 pigs survived the whole experimental period and could be included into final analysis. cTnT and LDH concentrations were lower in the EGDT group without reaching statistical significance. Comparison of lactate concentrations between 1 and 8 h after ROSC exhibited a decrease to nearly baseline levels within the EGDT group (1 h vs 8 h: 7.9 vs. 1.7 mmol/l, P < 0.01), while in the noEGDT group lactate concentrations did not significantly decrease. The EGDT group revealed a higher initial need for fluids (P < 0.05) and less epinephrine administration (P < 0.05) post ROSC. Conductance method determined significant higher values for preload recruitable stroke work, ejection fraction and maximum rate of pressure change in the ventricle for the EGDT group. EGDT after cardiac arrest is associated with a significant decrease of lactate levels to nearly baseline and is able to improve systolic myocardial function. Although the results of our study suggest that implementation of an EGDT algorithm for post cardiac arrest care seems feasible, the impact and implementation of EGDT algorithms after cardiac arrest need to be further investigated

Balanced impacts of fitness and drug pressure on the evolution of PfMDR1 polymorphisms in Plasmodium falciparum.

BACKGROUND: Anti-malarial drug resistance may be limited by decreased fitness in resistant parasites. Important contributors to resistance are mutations in the Plasmodium falciparum putative drug transporter PfMDR1. METHODS: Impacts on in vitro fitness of two common PfMDR1 polymorphisms, N86Y, which is associated with sensitivity to multiple drugs, and Y184F, which has no clear impact on drug sensitivity, were evaluated to study associations between resistance mediators and parasite fitness, measured as relative growth in competitive culture experiments. NF10 P. falciparum lines engineered to represent all PfMDR1 N86Y and Y184F haplotypes were co-cultured for 40 days, and the genetic make-up of the cultures was characterized every 4 days by pyrosequencing. The impacts of culture with anti-malarials on the growth of different haplotypes were also assessed. Lastly, the engineering of P. falciparum containing another common polymorphism, PfMDR1 D1246Y, was attempted. RESULTS: Co-culture results were as follows. With wild type (WT) Y184 fixed (N86/Y184 vs. 86Y/Y184), parasites WT and mutant at 86 were at equilibrium. With mutant 184 F fixed (N86/184F vs. 86Y/184F), mutants at 86 overgrew WT. With WT N86 fixed (N86/Y184 vs. N86/184F), WT at 184 overgrew mutants. With mutant 86Y fixed (86Y/Y184 vs. 86Y/184F), WT and mutant at 86 were at equilibrium. Parasites with the double WT were in equilibrium with the double mutant, but 86Y/Y184 overgrew N86/184F. Overall, WT N86/mutant 184F parasites were less fit than parasites with all other haplotypes. Parasites engineered for another mutation, PfMDR1 1246Y, were unstable in culture, with reversion to WT over time. Thus, the N86 WT is stable when accompanied by the Y184 WT, but incurs a fitness cost when accompanied by mutant 184F. Culturing in the presence of chloroquine favored 86Y mutant parasites and in the presence of lumefantrine favored N86 WT parasites; piperaquine had minimal impact. CONCLUSIONS: These results are consistent with those for Ugandan field isolates, suggest reasons for varied haplotypes, and highlight the interplay between drug pressure and fitness that is guiding the evolution of resistance-mediating haplotypes in P. falciparum

Lack of resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to dihydroartemisinin in Uganda based on parasitogolgical and molecular assays

Artemisinin-­‐based combination therapy is now standard treatment for falciparum malaria. However, this regimen is threatened by resistance to artemisinins, manifest as delayed clearance of parasitemia after therapy, in southeast Asia. Artemisinin resistance in southeast Asia is associated with increased parasitemias in culture, compared to those in sensi0ve parasites, 72 hours a=er a 6 hour pulse with 700 nM dihydroartemisinin (DHA), and with propeller domain polymorphisms in the Plasmodium falciparum kelch (K13; PF3D7_1343700) gene Given that artemether/lumefantrine has been adopted as standard therapy for malaria within the last decade in Uganda, we characterized artemisinin sensiBvity in fresh P. falciparum isolates from Kampala using ex vivo ring-­‐stage survival and IC50 assays. We also assessed the K13 gene for polymorphisms