Modelo de previsão hidrológica utilizando redes neurais artificiais: um estudo de caso na bacia do Rio Xingu – Altamira-PA

O conhecimento acerca da amplitude do transbordamento dos leitos fluviais é extremamente necessário para determinação de áreas de risco. A cidade de Altamira-PA, localizada às margens do rio Xingu, vem sofrendo com casos extremos de cheias que tendem a provocar inundações, resultando em severos prejuízos para a sua população. Considerando o problema, este artigo apresenta a proposta de um sistema de previsão de nível mensal do Rio Xingu baseado em Redes Neurais Artificiais Perceptron de múltiplas camadas. Para o desenvolvimento do sistema foram utilizados dados de precipitação na bacia e sub-bacias do Rio Xingu, e informações de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) do período de 1979 a 2016. Os resultados satisfatórios obtidos demonstram a grande aplicabilidade das Redes Neurais Artificiais para o problema de previsão de cheias

Evaluación del cumplimiento al proceso de estructuración del plan de marketing de MYPES de pisco en la provincia de Ica: Estudio de casos múltiples

Actualmente, el pisco es considerado un producto bandera del Perú y el departamento de Ica es donde se concentra la mayor cantidad de producción de pisco. Tomando en cuenta la relevancia del sector pisquero, la presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal evaluar el cumplimiento al plan de marketing en las MYPES pisqueras en la provincia de Ica que son parte de esta investigación, tomando como base de análisis un modelo teórico de plan de marketing adaptado al tamaño de las empresas. Para ello, se estableció la necesidad de emplear el enfoque cualitativo con alcance exploratorio y descriptivo. Y para evitar sesgos en la información del sector se optó por el análisis de casos múltiples, contando de esta manera con la colaboración de seis MYPES pisqueras de la provincia de Ica. Es así como, para realizar el análisis cualitativo, se tomará en cuenta la triangulación de la información recolectada de la literatura, de las entrevistas con expertos y de las entrevistas con los representantes de las empresas; lo cual se detallará en la secuencia metodológica. Es de esta manera como se obtuvieron los hallazgos de cada variable del modelo teórico. Como resultado de la investigación, se encontraron hallazgos que evidencian que los aspectos de marketing no son tomados con la relevancia que se requiere; además se afirma la carencia de un plan de marketing por parte de los sujetos de estudio. En ese sentido, se presentan recomendaciones teóricas y prácticas orientadas en las MYPES pisqueras y a las entidades regulatorias del secto

Towards Sustainable and Circular Practices with Plastics: Exploring the Potential of Law and Governance Tools Based on Holistic and Harmonized Life Cycle Assessment

The journal editor gave permission to self-archive Version of Record, editor's contact info: Tomi Tuominen ([email protected])Low recycling rates, varying recycling possibilities, and accumulation in nature are issues commonly associated with plastics. Promoting sustainable and circular practices with plastics requires the awareness and engagement of all the stakeholders from public to private actors operating in the plastics value chain. Notwithstanding the existence of several public laws and policies aiming to regulate plastic production and use in order to make the whole value chain more circular, most of these instruments target only specific stakeholder groups (e.g. plastics producers) and affect only certain types of plastics. Even if some private law and governance instruments, such as certifications (including intellectual property rights) and eco-labelling schemes, have great potential to affect a broader range of actors, among them consumers and other end-users, they suffer from several shortcomings, particularly when it comes to transparency and accountability. In addition, both public and private law instruments are challenged by the immaturity and complexity of the methodologies currently employed, such as life cycle assessment (LCA). This is apt to lead these legal tools to have a limited ability to establish the actual environmental impacts of different types of plastics, and thus properly contribute to sustainable and circular practices. We argue that to be effective in guiding stakeholder behaviour towards sustainability, these legal tools should be accountable, transparent, and backed up by adequate scientific evidence on the environmental impacts of plastics throughout their life cycle. We propose that such evidence could be obtained through holistic LCA that is based on harmonized international standards.Peer reviewe

Main characteristics of preventive postural hygiene training programs in the educational field

Objective: To determine the state of the art regarding preventive training programs on postural hygiene and back health in an educational context. Introduction: The prevalence of non-specific back pain in population reaches alarming figures and its causes are largely preventable. Adequate training in postural education is necessary along students' academic career. Method: Retrospective descriptive study, using the PRISMA method. Results: 61 original articles published from 2017 to 2021 have been analysed. Discussion: Postural education programs have demonstrated their effectiveness and have provided benefits for the participating students

Refractory chronic urticaria in adults: clinical characterization and predictors of severity

Background: Chronic urticaria (CU) is defined as recurrent urticaria lasting for more than 6 weeks. Objectives: We aimed to characterize the phenotypes of patients with CU refractory to standard dose anti-H1 antihistamine treatment and search for clinical predictors of poor disease control. Methods: Retrospective collection of data regarding clinical characteristics, comorbidities, treatment, and disease control of all adult refractory CU patients presenting to the Allergy and Immunology Department during 1 year. Results: Sixty-one adult patients were included, 74% females, average age 44.5 years (18 to 84 years old). Most patients (78.7%) had initiated CU less than 1 year before enrolment. Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) accounted for 55.7% of the patients, CSU associated with chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU) as a comorbidity for 44.3%, and angioedema was present in 55.7%. Medically-confirmed psychiatric disorders were present in 78.7%. Complementary diagnostic tests were performed in cases with more severe presentation (UAS7 ≥ 28 and/or UCT < 12) or with longer evolution (> 1 year), corresponding to 42 tested patient. Evidence for autoimmunity (positive anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies, anti-nuclear antibodies or autologous serum test) was found in 45.2% (n = 19/42), and high C-reactive protein was present in 14.3% (n = 6/42), half of these also had positive antinuclear antibodies. Forty-six patients (75.4%) had at least one significant exacerbation, requiring medical appointment, emergency room, hospitalization or job absenteeism. The number of exacerbations correlated with the presence of angioedema (p = 0.022), with a recent diagnosis (< 1 year), and with higher UAS7 severity (p = 0.006). Although ClndU was associated with poor symptom control (p = 0.022), it was also associated with less exacerbations requiring medical observation or hospitalization (p = 0.015). All patients were using antihistamines and 21.3% (n = 13) of them were also under treatment with omalizumab, ciclosporine or montelukast for disease control. Conclusions: Autoimmunity can affect about half of the patients with severe or long-term CU. UAS7 and angioedema are associated with disease exacerbations. UAS7 and UCT presented unequal accuracy, with UAS7 better associating with the occurrence of exacerbations and treatment doses. Patients with refractory CU frequently present psychiatric disorders. Accurate diagnostic tests, namely autoimmune parameters and inflammatory markers, should be recommended in some individual cases

Use of Ultrasonography to Discriminate Psoriatic Arthritis from Fibromyalgia: A Post-Hoc Analysis of the ULISSE Study

In psoriatic arthritis (PsA) patients with concomitant chronic widespread pain, the differential diagnosis with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) can be challenging. We evaluated whether ultrasound (US) examination of entheseal sites can distinguish pain from (PsA) enthesitis versus FMS. PsA and FMS patients underwent clinical evaluation and gray-scale (GS; B-mode) and power Doppler (PD) US examination of the entheses. At least one enthesis with GS- and PD-mode changes was found in 90% and 59.3% of PsA patients (n = 140) and 62.7% and 35.3% of FMS patients (n = 51), respectively. GS and PD identified changes in 49.5% and 19.2% of the 840 PsA entheses and 22.5% and 7.9% of the 306 FMS entheses, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.77 and 0.66 for B- and PD-mode, respectively, 3.5 being the best cut-off GS-score to discriminate the two conditions. Multivariate regression showed that Achilles and proximal patellar tendon enthesitis (B-mode) were strongly associated with PsA (odds ratio, ~2). Principal component analysis (B-mode) confirmed that PsA patients have a higher number of involved entheses and patterns of entheseal involvement than FMS patients. US evaluation of the entheses may help differentiate chronic widespread pain from PsA versus FMS