Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Risk Management Among Georgia Farmers

Recent increases in the scientific robustness of seasonal climate forecasts have not led to substantial changes in farmers’ risk management strategies of actors, largely because there is poor integration of scientific forecasting into farmers’ decision-making processes. The goal of the research presented here is to explore the potentials and constraints for farmers’ application of seasonal climate forecasts through an analysis of the cultural contexts of their decision-making and information use. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 38 farmers in southern Georgia, examining their approaches, risk-management, to livelihood goals and strategies, and interactions with weather and climate information. Findings indicate that farmers’ management of risks associated with climate variability is embedded within a broad array of social factors, including subjective construction of social and personal identities, goals, and values. These cultural contexts affect the ways that farmers interpret and might apply seasonal climate forecasts to agricultural decisions. These findings indicate that, rather than simply acting as a technical information input, seasonal climate forecasts and forecasters must gradually work theirway into farmers’ trusted social networks before their potential as risk management tools will be realized. Furthermore, while seeking to produce scientific information to support farmers’ adaptive practices, scientists themselves must adapt their own practices to better fit a coproduction of knowledge approach

Local Perceptions and Regional Climate Trends on the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso

Due to devastating droughts in the 1970s and 1980s, climatic and environmental change in the West African Sahel has attracted a great deal of scientific research. While many of these studies documented a long-term trend of declining rainfall, analyses conducted in the last few years suggest that a ‘recovery’ is underway. Drawing on ethnographic interviews, focus groups, and participant observation in two Provinces of the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso, we elicited local perspectives on these rainfall trends from the people who are most directly affected, namely local farmers. Fieldwork revealed that farmers in the research sites perceive that both overall seasonal rainfall and the number of ‘big rains’ during the rainy season have decreased over the last 30 years. We then tested these perceptions against rainfall records from nearby meteorological stations and found them to be corroborated. This paper illustrates how farmers of the Central Plateau now view drought as ‘normal’, having incorporated drought-mitigation adaptations into their agricultural systems. Our case study highlights the need for ground truthing scientific analyses and assessing livelihood implications at the local level. It also advocates for sustained institutional support for rural communities, to increase their ability to adapt to climate change.Ye

Coping with Climate Variability and Adapting to Climate Change in Kenya: Household and Community Strategies and Determinants

Report 3a of the project “Adaptation of Smallholder Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: Household and community strategies and determinants

Presented by Elizabeth Bryan (IFPRI) on behalf of Claudia Ringler, Barrack Okoba, Carla Roncoli, Silvia Silvestri, and Mario Herrero, at George Washington University, Washington, D.C., 19 May 2011

Short- and Long-Term Propagation of Spacecraft Orbits

The Planetary Observer Planning Software (POPS) comprises four computer programs for use in designing orbits of spacecraft about planets. These programs are the Planetary Observer High Precision Orbit Propagator (POHOP), the Planetary Observer Long-Term Orbit Predictor (POLOP), the Planetary Observer Post Processor (POPP), and the Planetary Observer Plotting (POPLOT) program. POHOP and POLOP integrate the equations of motion to propagate an initial set of classical orbit elements to a future epoch. POHOP models shortterm (one revolution) orbital motion; POLOP averages out the short-term behavior but requires far less processing time than do older programs that perform long-term orbit propagations. POPP postprocesses the spacecraft ephemeris created by POHOP or POLOP (or optionally can use a less accurate internal ephemeris) to search for trajectory-related geometric events including, for example, rising or setting of a spacecraft as observed from a ground site. For each such event, POPP puts out such user-specified data as the time, elevation, and azimuth. POPLOT is a graphics program that plots data generated by POPP. POPLOT can plot orbit ground tracks on a world map and can produce a variety of summaries and generic ordinate-vs.-abscissa plots of any POPP data

Culture as a mediator of climate change adaptation: Neither static nor unidirectional

Though there is increasing recognition of the cultural dimensions that shape climate change adaptation, our experience from working with actors engaged in adaptation policy and practice suggests that the role of culture still tends to be conceived in overly narrow and fixed terms. This is exemplified in portrayals of conservative cultural norms as stifling positive change. A growing body of research across the world indicates that the reality is seldom as simple as this – culture works in complex and variable ways, and, most importantly, is inherently dynamic. Drawing especially from research work on vulnerability and adaptation conducted in semi-arid regions, we illustrate this argument by briefly exploring three themes - multiple knowledge systems for farming in Botswana, the dynamics of pastoralist values and livelihoods in Kenya, and the interplay of caste and livelihood choices in India. Understanding how different facets of culture such as these operate in context helps move away from viewing culture statically as a barrier or enabler, and toward a more plural and dynamic appreciation of the role of culture in adaptation. This includes recognising the potential for factors that may be construed as barriers to become enablers. Critical, balanced engagement with cultural dimensions in both research and practice, understanding and working with these dynamic social structures, is essential if adaptation is to create meaningful and lasting change for those who need it most

Achieving sustainable future objectives under uncertain conditions: Application of a learning framework to adaptation pathways in rural Mali

Adaptation Pathways have emerged as promising approaches for exploring sequences of actions to address challenges in uncertain conditions. This study elaborates on how pathway approaches operate in practice by applying a learning framework that identifies guiding propositions for successful adaptation pathways. The framework is used to analyze a transformative scenario planning case study from rural Mali. Findings confirm that adaptation pathways are highly context-specific, grounded in local institutions. The study also emphasizes that the adaptation pathways process requires a sufficient timeframe to allow for cross-level interactions and institutional changes to unfold as needed. The case demonstrates that the framework can be a useful tool for reflexive learning and identifying gaps in a structured way during pathway development. However, it needs to be adjusted to specific contexts to better capture the influence of and implications for power relations and social inequality in future adaptation plans

What is carbon? Conceptualising carbon and capabilities in the context of community sequestration projects in the global South

Carbon has been described as a ‘surreal commodity.’ While carbon trading, storage, sequestration, and emissions have become a part of the contemporary climate lexicon, how carbon is understood, valued, and interpreted by actors responsible for implementing carbon sequestration projects is still unclear. In this review paper, we are concerned with how carbon has come to take on a range of meanings. In particular, we appraise what is known about the situated meanings that people involved in delivering, and participating in, carbon sequestration projects in the global South assign to this complex element. There has been some reflection on the new meanings conferred on carbon via the neoliberal processes of marketisation and on how these processes interact with historical and contemporary narratives of environmental change. But less is known about how these meanings are (re)produced and (re)interpreted locally. We review how carbon has been defined both as a chemical element and as a tradable, marketable commodity. We discuss the implications these global meanings might have for situated understandings, particularly linked to climate change narratives, among communities in the global South. We consider how the concept of carbon capabilities, alongside theoretical notions of networks, assemblages, and local knowledges of the environment and nature, might be useful in beginning to understand how communities engage with abstract notions of carbon. We discuss the implications of specific values attributed to carbon, and therefore to different ecologies, for wider conceptualizations of how nature is valued, and climate is understood. We review in particular how this may impact on community interactions with carbon sequestration projects. Knowing more about how people understand, value, and know carbon allows policies to be better informed and practices more effectively targeted at engaging local populations meaningfully in carbon-related projects