Credit conditions and the housing price ratio: evidence from Ireland’s boom and bust

The Great Recession starting in 2007 has refocused attention on the importance of understanding housing market dynamics as contributors to macroeconomic fluctuations. While the sale-to-rent ratio of housing prices is generally regarded as a fundamental barometer of housing market health, the study of its determinants remains in its infancy. This paper examines the housing price ratio in Ireland since 2000, a period including an extreme housing market cycle. Using new data on first-time buyer loan-to-value ratios, a one-step error correction model of the housing price ratio in Ireland is presented for the first time. It finds clear evidence that, alongside user cost, credit conditions were central in determining equilibrium in the housing market. Throughout, and especially earlier in the sample, there is rapid adjustment of the housing price ratio to its implied equilibrium relation. There is evidence that the housing market regime changed during the period, in 2010 and again in 2014/2015. The preferred specifications imply that a ten percentage point increase in the median first-time buyer loan-to-value was associated with a 9% rise in sale prices, holding other factors – including rental prices and the system wide ratio of credit to deposits – constant. In addition to an understanding of the Irish market, the findings contribute to the evidence base for macroprudential policies that focus on mortgage lending and also hint at how housing market history may differ across rising and falling markets in forming expectations of capital gains

The impact of employment on housing prices: detailed evidence from FDI in Ireland

Access to employment is one of the most valuable amenities offered by cities. In urban economics, this is the principal driver of the bid-rent gradient and is a key determinant of housing prices and land values. However, little is known about the causal effect of employment on housing prices, due to the problem of identification. This study presents the first causal estimates of employment changes on housing prices, both sales and rental. It does this by using a purpose-built spatially granular dataset of 1.4 million housing prices and FDI employment, covering Ireland 2007–2013. Identification rests on a combination of rich spatio-temporal variation due to the abundance of FDI in Ireland, a rich set of location controls and an inelastic housing supply in the period covered. The main results show that 1–2 years after 1000 extra jobs have been created, monthly rents in nearby properties will be between 0.5% and 1% higher. The effect on prices is at least 2% but less consistent across specifications. On average, net job creation in export-oriented FDI firms 2009–2013 added roughly €48 million to the stock of wealth of owner occupied real estate and €8 million to the stock of wealth of the rental sector. We also estimate that the aggregate effect of the stock of FDI jobs in 2013 on Irish housing prices is €440 million, or just over 1%

The Value of Domestic Building Energy Efficiency – Evidence from Ireland. ESRI Research Bulletin 2014/1/3

Increasing the energy efficiency of the residential housing stock can, according to the European Commission, make a significant contribution to the overall reduction of CO2 emissions in Europe; in fact the European Commission estimates that by 2050 emissions from the residential building stock may have decreased by 90% (European Commission, 2011). Achieving such a reduction in CO2 emissions from buildings will require significant monetary investments. Given the costs associated with improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock, an important question, addressed by our research, is whether homeowners and renters are willing to pay for this increased energy efficiency

Visualisation and optimisation of alcohol-related hospital admissions ICD-10 codes in Welsh e-cohort data

Introduction The excessive consumption of alcohol is detrimental to long term health and increases the likelihood of hospital admission. However, definitions of alcohol-related hospital admission vary, giving rise to uncertainty in the effect of alcohol on alcohol-related health care utilization. Objectives To compare diagnostic codes on hospital admission and discharge and to determine the ideal combination of codes necessary for an accurate determination of alcohol-related hospital admission. Methods Routine population-linked e-cohort data were extracted from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank containing all alcohol-related hospital admissions (n,= 92,553) from 2006 to 2011 in Wales, United Kingdom. The distributions of the diagnostic codes recorded at admission and discharge were compared. By calculating a misclassification rate (sensitivity-like measure) the appropriate number of coding fields to examine for alcohol-codes was established. Results There was agreement between admission and discharge codes. When more than ten coding fields were used the misclassification rate was less than 1%. Conclusion With the data at present and alcohol-related codes used, codes recorded at admission and discharge can be used equivalently to identify alcohol-related admissions. The appropriate number of coding fields to examine was established: fewer than ten is likely to lead to under-reporting of alcohol-related admissions. The methods developed here can be applied to other medical conditions that can be described using a certain set of diagnostic codes, each of which can be a known sole cause of the condition and recorded in multiple positions in e-cohort data

The role of health and social factors in education outcome: A record-linked electronic birth cohort analysis

Background and objectiveHealth status in childhood is correlated with educational outcomes. Emergency hospital admissions during childhood are common but it is not known how these unplanned breaks from schooling impact on education outcomes. We hypothesised that children who had emergency hospital admissions had an increased risk of lower educational attainment, in addition to the increased risks associated with other health, social and school factors.MethodsThis record-linked electronic birth cohort, included children born in Wales between 1 January 1998 and 31 August 2001. We fitted multilevel logistic regression models grouped by schools, to determine whether emergency hospital inpatient admission before age 7 years was associated with the educational outcome of not attaining the expected level in a teacher-based assessment at age 7 years (KS1). We adjusted for pregnancy, perinatal, socio-economic, neighbourhood, pupil mobility and school-level factors.ResultsThe cohort comprised 64 934 children. Overall, 4680 (7.2%) did not attain the expected educational level. Emergency admission to hospital was associated with poor educational attainment (OR 1.12 95% Credible Interval (CI) 1.05, 1.20 for all causes during childhood, OR 1.19 95%CI 1.07, 1.32 for injuries and external causes and OR 1.31 95%CI 1.04, 1.22 for admissions during infancy), after adjusting for known determinants of education outcomes such as extreme prematurity, being small for gestational age and socio-economic indicators, such as eligibility for free school meals.ConclusionEmergency inpatient hospital admission during childhood, particularly during infancy or for injuries and external causes was associated with an increased risk of lower education attainment at age 7 years, in addition to the effects of pregnancy factors (gestational age, birthweight) and social deprivation. These findings support the need for injury prevention measures and additional support in school for affected children to help them to achieve their potential

Diagnosed prevalence of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome and hypermobility spectrum disorder in Wales, UK: a national electronic cohort study and case–control comparison

Objectives To describe the epidemiology of diagnosed hypermobility spectrum disorder (HSD) and Ehlers-Danlos syndromes (EDS) using linked electronic medical records. To examine whether these conditions remain rare and primarily affect the musculoskeletal system. Design Nationwide linked electronic cohort and nested case–control study. Setting Routinely collected data from primary care and hospital admissions in Wales, UK. Participants People within the primary care or hospital data systems with a coded diagnosis of EDS or joint hypermobility syndrome (JHS) between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 2017. Main outcome measures Combined prevalence of JHS and EDS in Wales. Additional diagnosis and prescription data in those diagnosed with EDS or JHS compared with matched controls. Results We found 6021 individuals (men: 30%, women: 70%) with a diagnostic code of either EDS or JHS. This gives a diagnosed point prevalence of 194.2 per 100 000 in 2016/2017 or roughly 10 cases in a practice of 5000 patients. There was a pronounced gender difference of 8.5 years (95% CI: 7.70 to 9.22) in the mean age at diagnosis. EDS or JHS was not only associated with high odds for other musculoskeletal diagnoses and drug prescriptions but also with significantly higher odds of a diagnosis in other disease categories (eg, mental health, nervous and digestive systems) and higher odds of a prescription in most disease categories (eg, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular drugs) within the 12 months before and after the first recorded diagnosis. Conclusions EDS and JHS (since March 2017 classified as EDS or HSD) have historically been considered rare diseases only affecting the musculoskeletal system and soft tissues. These data demonstrate that both these assertions should be reconsidered

Residential Moving and Preventable Hospitalizations

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between moving home in the first year of life and subsequent emergency admissions for potentially preventable hospitalizations. METHODS: We undertook a cohort analysis of linked anonymized data on 237 842 children in the Welsh Electronic Cohort for Children. We included children born in Wales between April 1, 1999 and December 31, 2008. The exposure was the number of residential moves from birth up to 1 year. The main outcome was emergency admissions for potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) between the age of 1 and 5 years. RESULTS: After adjustment for confounders, we identified that moving home frequently in the first year of life was associated with an increased risk of emergency PPH between the ages of 1 and 5 when compared with not moving. We found significant differences associated with ≥2 moves for the following: ear, nose, and throat infections (incidence risk ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29–1.61); convulsions/epilepsy (IRR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.23–2.04); injuries (IRR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18–1.51); dehydration/gastroenteritis (IRR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.21–1.88); asthma (IRR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.19–2.16); influenza/pneumonia (IRR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00–1.32); and dental conditions (IRR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03–1.64) for ≥1 moves. CONCLUSIONS: Children who move home in the first year of life are at substantially increased risk of emergency admissions for PPH in early childhood. Additional research that focuses on enhancing health and social support services for highly mobile families, educating parents about safety risks, and improving housing quality is warranted

Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up: a retrospective cohort study using linked data

BACKGROUND: To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical-mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). FINDINGS: Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0-65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. INTERPRETATION: The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death. FUNDING: Health Data Research UK

Effect on life expectancy of temporal sequence in a multimorbidity cluster of psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure among 1·7 million individuals in Wales with 20-year follow-up : a retrospective cohort study using linked data

Funding: This work was supported by Health Data Research UK (HDRUK) Measuring and Understanding Multimorbidity using Routine Data in the UK (MUrMuRUK; award numbers HDR-9006 and CFC0110). HDRUK is funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, NIHR (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. This work also was co-funded by the MRC and NIHR (grant number MR/S027750/1). The work was supported by the Administrative Data Research (ADR) Wales programme of work, part of the Economic and Social Research Council (part of UK Research and Innovation) funded ADR UK (grant ES/S007393/1). RKO is supported by a Springboard award (SBF006\1122) funded by the Academy of Medical Sciences, Wellcome Trust, Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, British Heart Foundation, and Diabetes UK. SS is part funded by the NIHR Applied Research Collaboration West Midlands, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Gastrointestinal Infections, and the NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data.Background To inform targeted public health strategies, it is crucial to understand how coexisting diseases develop over time and their associated impacts on patient outcomes and health-care resources. This study aimed to examine how psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure, in a cluster of physical–mental health multimorbidity, develop and coexist over time, and to assess the associated effects of different temporal sequences of these diseases on life expectancy in Wales. Methods In this retrospective cohort study, we used population-scale, individual-level, anonymised, linked, demographic, administrative, and electronic health record data from the Wales Multimorbidity e-Cohort. We included data on all individuals aged 25 years and older who were living in Wales on Jan 1, 2000 (the start of follow-up), with follow-up continuing until Dec 31, 2019, first break in Welsh residency, or death. Multistate models were applied to these data to model trajectories of disease in multimorbidity and their associated effect on all-cause mortality, accounting for competing risks. Life expectancy was calculated as the restricted mean survival time (bound by the maximum follow-up of 20 years) for each of the transitions from the health states to death. Cox regression models were used to estimate baseline hazards for transitions between health states, adjusted for sex, age, and area-level deprivation (Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation [WIMD] quintile). Findings Our analyses included data for 1 675 585 individuals (811 393 [48·4%] men and 864 192 [51·6%] women) with a median age of 51·0 years (IQR 37·0–65·0) at cohort entry. The order of disease acquisition in cases of multimorbidity had an important and complex association with patient life expectancy. Individuals who developed diabetes, psychosis, and congestive heart failure, in that order (DPC), had reduced life expectancy compared with people who developed the same three conditions in a different order: for a 50-year-old man in the third quintile of the WIMD (on which we based our main analyses to allow comparability), DPC was associated with a loss in life expectancy of 13·23 years (SD 0·80) compared with the general otherwise healthy or otherwise diseased population. Congestive heart failure as a single condition was associated with mean a loss in life expectancy of 12·38 years (0·00), and with a loss of 12·95 years (0·06) when preceded by psychosis and 13·45 years (0·13) when followed by psychosis. Findings were robust in people of older ages, more deprived populations, and women, except that the trajectory of psychosis, congestive heart failure, and diabetes was associated with higher mortality in women than men. Within 5 years of an initial diagnosis of diabetes, the risk of developing psychosis or congestive heart failure, or both, was increased. Interpretation The order in which individuals develop psychosis, diabetes, and congestive heart failure as combinations of conditions can substantially affect life expectancy. Multistate models offer a flexible framework to assess temporal sequences of diseases and allow identification of periods of increased risk of developing subsequent conditions and death.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Educational Attainment at Age 10–11 Years Predicts Health Risk Behaviors and Injury Risk During Adolescence

Purpose: To examine the effect of educational attainment in primary school on later adolescent health. Methods: Education data attainments at age 7 and 11 were linked with (1) primary and secondary care injury consultation/admissions and (2) the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey. Cox regression was carried out to examine if attainment in primary school predicts time to injury in adolescence. Results: Pupils that achieve attainment at age 7 but not at age 11 (i.e., declining attainment over time in primary school) are more likely to have an injury during adolescence. These children are also more likely to self-report drinking in adolescence. Conclusions: Interventions aimed at children with declining attainment in primary school could help to improve adolescent health