Uniform saddlepoint approximations for ratios of quadratic forms

Ratios of quadratic forms in correlated normal variables which introduce noncentrality into the quadratic forms are considered. The denominator is assumed to be positive (with probability 1). Various serial correlation estimates such as least-squares, Yule--Walker and Burg, as well as Durbin--Watson statistics, provide important examples of such ratios. The cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) and density for such ratios admit saddlepoint approximations. These approximations are shown to preserve uniformity of relative error over the entire range of support. Furthermore, explicit values for the limiting relative errors at the extreme edges of support are derived.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/07-BEJ6169 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Saddlepoint approximation for moment generating functions of truncated random variables

We consider the problem of approximating the moment generating function (MGF) of a truncated random variable in terms of the MGF of the underlying (i.e., untruncated) random variable. The purpose of approximating the MGF is to enable the application of saddlepoint approximations to certain distributions determined by truncated random variables. Two important statistical applications are the following: the approximation of certain multivariate cumulative distribution functions; and the approximation of passage time distributions in ion channel models which incorporate time interval omission. We derive two types of representation for the MGF of a truncated random variable. One of these representations is obtained by exponential tilting. The second type of representation, which has two versions, is referred to as an exponential convolution representation. Each representation motivates a different approximation. It turns out that each of the three approximations is extremely accurate in those cases ``to which it is suited.'' Moreover, there is a simple rule of thumb for deciding which approximation to use in a given case, and if this rule is followed, then our numerical and theoretical results indicate that the resulting approximation will be extremely accurate.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000689 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Laplace approximation of Lauricella functions F A and F D

The Lauricella functions, which are generalizations of the Gauss hypergeometric function 2 F 1, arise naturally in many areas of mathematics and statistics. So far as we are aware, there is little or nothing in the literature on how to calculate numerical approximations for these functions outside those cases in which a simple one-dimensional integral representation or a one-dimensional series representation is available. In this paper we present first-order and second-order Laplace approximations to the Lauricella functions F(n)A and F(n)D. Our extensive numerical results show that these approximations achieve surprisingly good accuracy in a wide variety of examples, including cases well outside the asymptotic framework within which the approximations were derived. Moreover, it turns out that the second-order Laplace approximations are usually more accurate than their first-order versions. The numerical results are complemented by theoretical investigations which suggest that the approximations have good relative error properties outside the asymptotic regimes within which they were derived, including in certain cases where the dimension n goes to infinity

RNA-Seq quantification of the human small airway epithelium transcriptome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The small airway epithelium (SAE), the cell population that covers the human airway surface from the 6^thgeneration of airway branching to the alveoli, is the major site of lung disease caused by smoking. The focus of this study is to provide quantitative assessment of the SAE transcriptome in the resting state and in response to chronic cigarette smoking using massive parallel mRNA sequencing (RNA-Seq).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The data demonstrate that 48% of SAE expressed genes are ubiquitous, shared with many tissues, with 52% enriched in this cell population. The most highly expressed gene, SCGB1A1, is characteristic of Clara cells, the cell type unique to the human SAE. Among other genes expressed by the SAE are those related to Clara cell differentiation, secretory mucosal defense, and mucociliary differentiation. The high sensitivity of RNA-Seq permitted quantification of gene expression related to infrequent cell populations such as neuroendocrine cells and epithelial stem/progenitor cells. Quantification of the absolute smoking-induced changes in SAE gene expression revealed that, compared to ubiquitous genes, more SAE-enriched genes responded to smoking with up-regulation, and those with the highest basal expression levels showed most dramatic changes. Smoking had no effect on SAE gene splicing, but was associated with a shift in molecular pattern from Clara cell-associated towards the mucus-secreting cell differentiation pathway with multiple features of cancer-associated molecular phenotype.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These observations provide insights into the unique biology of human SAE by providing quantit-ative assessment of the global transcriptome under physiological conditions and in response to the stress of chronic cigarette smoking.</p

The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

We present the results of a transcontinental campaign to observe the 2009 June 5 transit of the exoplanet HD 80606b. We report the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 +/- 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibit an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. The Keck data show that the projected spin-orbit angle is between 32-87 deg with 68.3% confidence and between 14-142 deg with 99.73% confidence. Thus the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric (e=0.93), but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism. Independently of the theory, it is noteworthy that all 3 exoplanetary systems with known spin-orbit misalignments have massive planets on eccentric orbits, suggesting that those systems migrate differently than lower-mass planets on circular orbits.Comment: ApJ, in press [13 pg

Protecting eyewitness evidence: Examining the efficacy of a self-administered interview tool

Given the crucial role of eyewitness evidence, statements should be obtained as soon as possible after an incident. This is not always achieved due to demands on police resources. Two studies trace the development of a new tool, the Self-Administered Interview (SAI), designed to elicit a comprehensive initial statement. In Study 1, SAI participants reported more correct details than participants who provided a free recall account, and performed at the same level as participants given a Cognitive Interview. In Study 2, participants viewed a simulated crime and half recorded their statement using the SAI. After a delay of 1 week, all participants completed a free recall test. SAI participants recalled more correct details in the delayed recall task than control participants

Atmospheric three-dimensional inverse modeling of regional industrial emissions and global oceanic uptake of carbon tetrachloride

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has substantial stratospheric ozone depletion potential and its consumption is controlled under the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. We implement a Kalman filter using atmospheric CCl4 measurements and a 3-dimensional chemical transport model to estimate the interannual regional industrial emissions and seasonal global oceanic uptake of CCl4 for the period of 1996–2004. The Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH), driven by offline National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis meteorological fields, is used to simulate CCl4 mole fractions and calculate their sensitivities to regional sources and sinks using a finite difference approach. High frequency observations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and low frequency flask observations are together used to constrain the source and sink magnitudes, estimated as factors that multiply the a priori fluxes. Although industry data imply that the global industrial emissions were substantially declining with large interannual variations, the optimized results show only small interannual variations and a small decreasing trend. The global surface CCl4 mole fractions were declining in this period because the CCl4 oceanic and stratospheric sinks exceeded the industrial emissions. Compared to the a priori values, the inversion results indicate substantial increases in industrial emissions originating from the South Asian/Indian and Southeast Asian regions, and significant decreases in emissions from the European and North American regions.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX07AE89G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NAG5-12669)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NAG5-12099)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (grant ATM-0120468)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX07AF09G)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX07AE87G)Great Britain. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (grants EPG 1/1/159)Great Britain. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (grant CPEG 24)Great Britain. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (grants GA01081)Australia. Bureau of MeteorologyCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Researc

A Case-Control Study of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome during an Outbreak in the Southwestern United States

In May 1993, an outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome( HPS) occurred in the south-western United States. A case-control study determined risk factors for HPS. Seventeen case-patients were compared with 3 groups of controls: members of case-patient households( household controls), members of neighboring households( near controls), and members of randomly selected households ≥ 24 km away ( far controls). Investigators trapped more small rodents at case households than at near ( P = .03) or far control households( P = .02). After the number of small rodents was controlled for,case-patients were more likely than household controls to hand plow (odds ratio [OR], 12.3; 95% confidence interval [ CI], 1.1-143.0) or to clean feed storage areas (OR, 33.4; 95% CI, 1.7-666.0). Case-patients were more likely than near controls to plant( OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 1.1-34.0) and more likely than far controls to clean animal sheds( OR, 11.9;95% CI, 1.4-103.0). Peridomestic cleaning, agricultural activities, and an increased number of small rodents at the household were associated with HPS

A Case-Control Study of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome during an Outbreak in the Southwestern United States

In May 1993, an outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome( HPS) occurred in the south-western United States. A case-control study determined risk factors for HPS. Seventeen case-patients were compared with 3 groups of controls: members of case-patient households( household controls), members of neighboring households( near controls), and members of randomly selected households ≥ 24 km away ( far controls). Investigators trapped more small rodents at case households than at near ( P = .03) or far control households( P = .02). After the number of small rodents was controlled for,case-patients were more likely than household controls to hand plow (odds ratio [OR], 12.3; 95% confidence interval [ CI], 1.1-143.0) or to clean feed storage areas (OR, 33.4; 95% CI, 1.7-666.0). Case-patients were more likely than near controls to plant( OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 1.1-34.0) and more likely than far controls to clean animal sheds( OR, 11.9;95% CI, 1.4-103.0). Peridomestic cleaning, agricultural activities, and an increased number of small rodents at the household were associated with HPS

Histone H4 acetylation by immunohistochemistry and prognosis in newly diagnosed adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) patients

Background: Histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors are a novel anti-tumor therapy. To determine whether HDAC inhibitors may be useful in the treatment of adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), we examined the acetylation of histone H4 by immunohistochemistry in newly diagnosed ALL patients and evaluated the impact of acetylation on complete remission (CR) rate, relapse-free survival (RFS), and overall survival (OS). Methods: Patients >= 18 years of age and an available diagnostic bone marrow biopsy were evaluated. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to identify univariate and multivariate correlates of CR, RFS, and OS. The variables histone H4 acetylation (positive or negative), white blood count, cytogenetic (CG) risk group (CALGB criteria), and age were used in multivariate analysis. Results: On multivariate analysis, histone acetylation was associated with a trend towards an improved OS (for all CG risk groups) (HR = 0.51, p = 0.09). In patients without poor risk CG, there was an impressive association between the presence of histone acetylation and an improved CR rate (OR 3.43, p = 0.035), RFS (HR 0.07, p = 0.005), and OS (HR 0.24, p = 0.007). This association remained statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: These data provide a rationale for the design of novel regimens incorporating HDAC inhibitors in ALL