Dynamic Relationships Among Selected U.S. Commodity-Based, Value Added Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model

This paper demonstrates the application of a recently developed methodology, the combination of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) with Bernanke structural vector autoregression (VAR) models, to model a system of U.S. commodity-related and value-added markets. As an example, the paper applies this methodology to a quarterly system of U.S. markets: the wheat market and a set of downstream milling and bakery markets that use wheat as an input. Analyses of the model's impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in commodity-based markets strongly influence each other, although most of these effects occur in the long run beyond a single crop cycle. The paper illuminates how important U.S. food prices respond to wheat farm market shocks in price and quantity.Bernanke structural VARs, directed acyclic graphs, quarterly wheat-related markets, Industrial Organization, Marketing, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

ACCURACY AND PRECISION OF ESTIMATING AGE OF GRAY WOLVES BY TOOTH WEAR

We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skuIIs. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionaIIy by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ± 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves 2:9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth

Usable Space Versus Food Quantity in Bobwhite Habitat Management

We studied the response of northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) foods (plants and invertebrates), usable space, and populations following thinning and burning on the 60,000-ha pine (Pinus spp.)-grassland restoration area in the Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas, to examine 2 hypotheses commonly used to manage bobwhite habitat: 1) usable space (suitable permanent cover) and 2) food quantity (an element of habitat quality). We estimated invertebrate food abundance using sweep nets and abundance of food-producing plants using herbaceous and woody stem counts. The disk of vulnerability was used to index usable space. We used whistling-male counts to index population response. Relative abundance, mass, and frequency of occurrence of invertebrate foods and richness, density, and frequency of occurrence of bobwhite food-producing plants increased following thinning and fire. Relative abundance of whistling males was greatest in thinned stands 3 growing seasons post-burn and in thinned but unburned stands. We found food supply was related to usable space following treatment. However, food abundance alone did not explain bobwhite population response, whereas, usable space was predictive for bobwhite response. By comparing treated stands with similar usable space but different food quantity, we observed no differences in bobwhite abundance. Neural models suggested bobwhite population response was less sensitive to changes in food supply relative to changes in usable space. We recommend that managers should seek first to provide usable space (suitable permanent cover in low basal area stands), recognizing that adequate food supply will likely be a side effect of management to this end

Current activities and results of the Long Duration Exposure Facility Meteoroid and Debris Special Investigation Group

Fiscal Year 1994 will bring to a close the initial investigative activities associated with the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). LDEF was a 14-faced spacecraft (i.e., 12-sided cylinder and two ends) which housed 54 different experimental packages in low-Earth orbit (LEO) from Apr. 1984 to Jan. 1990 (i.e., for approx. 5.75 years). Since LDEF's return, the Meteoroid & Debris Special Investigation Group (M&D SIG) has been examining various LDEF components in order to better understand and define the LEO particulate environment. Members of the M&D SIG at JSC in Houston, TX have been contributing to these studies by carefully examining and documenting all impact events found on LDEF's 6061-T6 aluminum Intercostals (i.e., one of the spacecraft's structural frame components). Unlike all other hardware on LDEF, the frame exposed significantly large surface areas of a single homogeneous material in all (i.e., 26) possible LDEF pointing directions. To date, 28 of the 68 Intercostals in the possession of the M&D SIG have been documented. This data, as well as similar information from various LDEF investigators, can be accessed through the M&D SIG Database which is maintained at JSC

Dnmt3a regulates emotional behavior and spine plasticity in the nucleus accumbens.

Despite abundant expression of DNA methyltransferases (Dnmts) in brain, the regulation and behavioral role of DNA methylation remain poorly understood. We found that Dnmt3a expression was regulated in mouse nucleus accumbens (NAc) by chronic cocaine use and chronic social defeat stress. Moreover, NAc-specific manipulations that block DNA methylation potentiated cocaine reward and exerted antidepressant-like effects, whereas NAc-specific Dnmt3a overexpression attenuated cocaine reward and was pro-depressant. On a cellular level, we found that chronic cocaine use selectively increased thin dendritic spines on NAc neurons and that DNA methylation was both necessary and sufficient to mediate these effects. These data establish the importance of Dnmt3a in the NAc in regulating cellular and behavioral plasticity to emotional stimuli

The Consolidation of the White Southern Congressional Vote

This article explores the initial desertion and continued realignment of about one-sixth of the white voters in the South who, until 1994, stood by Democratic congressional candidates even as they voted for Republican presidential nominees. Prior to 1994, a sizable share of the white electorate distinguished between Democratic congressional and presidential candidates; since 1994 that distinction has been swept away. In 1992, a majority of white southern voters was casting their ballot for the Democratic House nominee; by 1994, the situation was reversed and 64 percent cast their ballot for the Republican. Virtually all categories of voters increased their support of Republican congressional candidates in 1994 and the following elections further cement GOP congressional support in the South. Subsequent elections are largely exercises in partisanship, as the congressional votes mirror party preferences. Republicans pull nearly all GOP identifiers, most independents, and a sizeable minority of Democratic identifiers. Democrats running for Congress no longer convince voters that they are different from their party’s presidential standard bearers—a group that has consistently been judged unacceptable to overwhelming proportions of the southern white electorate.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

A Network-Individual-Resource Model for HIV Prevention

HIV is transmitted through dyadic exchanges of individuals linked in transitory or permanent networks of varying sizes. A theoretical perspective that bridges key individual level elements with important network elements can be a complementary foundation for developing and implementing HIV interventions with outcomes that are more sustainable over time and have greater dissemination potential. Toward that end, we introduce a Network-Individual-Resource (NIR) model for HIV prevention that recognizes how exchanges of resources between individuals and their networks underlies and sustains HIV-risk behaviors. Individual behavior change for HIV prevention, then, may be dependent on increasing the supportiveness of that individual’s relevant networks for such change. Among other implications, an NIR model predicts that the success of prevention efforts depends on whether the prevention efforts (1) prompt behavior changes that can be sustained by the resources the individual or their networks possess; (2) meet individual and network needs and are consistent with the individual’s current situation/developmental stage; (3) are trusted and valued; and (4) target high HIV-prevalence networks

Polymer-based paclitaxel-eluting stents reduce in-stent neointimal tissue proliferation A serial volumetric intravascular ultrasound analysis from the TAXUS-IV trial

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to use serial volumetric intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) to evaluate the effects of polymer-based, paclitaxel-eluting stents on in-stent neointima formation and late incomplete stent apposition.BackgroundThe TAXUS-IV trial demonstrated that the slow-release, polymer-based, paclitaxel-eluting stent reduces angiographic restenosis and the need for repeat revascularization procedures. Serial IVUS studies reveal details of the pattern of vascular responses provoked by stent implantation that provide insight into device safety and efficacy.MethodsIn the TAXUS-IV trial, patients were randomized to the slow-release, polymer-based, paclitaxel-eluting TAXUS stent or a bare-metal EXPRESS stent (Boston Scientific Corp., Natick, Massachusetts). As part of a formal substudy, complete volumetric IVUS data were available in 170 patients, including 88 TAXUS patients and 82 controls, at implantation and at nine-month follow-up.ResultsNo baseline differences were present in the clinical characteristics or IVUS parameters between the control and TAXUS groups. At nine-month follow-up, IVUS lumen volumes were larger in the TAXUS group (123 ± 43 mm3vs. 104 ± 44 mm3, p = 0.005), due to a reduction in neointimal volume (18 ± 18 mm3vs. 41 ± 23 mm3, p < 0.001). Millimeter-by-millimeter analysis within the stent demonstrated uniform suppression of neointimal growth along the entire stent length. Late lumen loss was similar at the proximal edge of the stent between the two groups, and reduced with the TAXUS stent at the distal edge (p = 0.004). Incomplete stent apposition at nine months was observed in only 3.0% of control and 4.0% of TAXUS stents (p = 0.12).ConclusionsPolymer-based, paclitaxel-eluting TAXUS stents are effective in inhibiting neointimal tissue proliferation, and do not result in late incomplete stent apposition

The Century Survey Galactic Halo Project III: A Complete 4300 deg^2 Survey of Blue Horizontal Branch Stars in the Metal-Weak Thick Disk and Inner Halo

We present a complete spectroscopic survey of 2414 2MASS-selected blue horizontal branch (BHB) candidates selected over 4300 deg^2 of the sky. We identify 655 BHB stars in this non-kinematically selected sample. We calculate the luminosity function of field BHB stars and find evidence for very few hot BHB stars in the field. The BHB stars located at a distance from the Galactic plane |Z|<4 kpc trace what is clearly a metal-weak thick disk population, with a mean metallicity of [Fe/H]= -1.7, a rotation velocity gradient of dv_{rot}/d|Z|= -28+-3.4 km/s in the region |Z|<6 kpc, and a density scale height of h_Z= 1.26+-0.1 kpc. The BHB stars located at 5<|Z|<9 kpc are a predominantly inner-halo population, with a mean metallicity of [Fe/H]= -2.0 and a mean Galactic rotation of -4+-31 km/s. We infer the density of halo and thick disk BHB stars is 104+-37 kpc^-3 near the Sun, and the relative normalization of halo to thick-disk BHB stars is 4+-1% near the Sun.Comment: 12 pages in emulateapj format, accepted for publication in February A