Crash risk by driver age, gender, and time of day using a new exposure methodology

Introduction: Concerns have been raised that the nonlinear relation between crashes and travel exposure invalidates the conventional use of crash rates to control for exposure. A new metric of exposure that bears a linear association to crashes was used as basis for calculating unbiased crash risks. This study compared the two methods – conventional crash rates and new adjusted crash risk – for assessing the effect of driver age, gender, and time of day on the risk of crash involvement and crash fatality. Method: We used police reports of single-car and multi-car crashes with fatal and nonfatal driver injuries that occurred during 2002–2012 in Great Britain. Results: Conventional crash rates were highest in the youngest age group and declined steeply until age 60–69 years. The adjusted crash risk instead peaked at age 21–29 years and reduced gradually with age. The risk of nighttime driving, especially among teenage drivers, was much smaller when based on adjusted crash risks. Finally, the adjusted fatality risk incurred by elderly drivers remained constant across time of day, suggesting that their risk of sustaining a fatal injury due to a crash is more attributable to excess fragility than to crash seriousness. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a biasing effect of low travel exposure on conventional crash rates. This implies that conventional methods do not yield meaningful comparisons of crash risk between driver groups and driving conditions of varying exposure to risk. The excess crash rates typically associated with teenage and elderly drivers as well as nighttime driving are attributed in part to overestimation of risk at low travel exposure. Practical Applications: Greater attention should be directed toward crash involvement among drivers in their 20s and 30s as well as younger drivers. Countermeasures should focus on the role of physical vulnerability in fatality risk of elderly drivers

Единое образовательное пространство в рамках государств содружества

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in men. Evidence suggests that smokers may be at increased risk of prostate cancer compared to non-smokers. In the present study we ask whether adult men who smoke are also less likely to undergo screening for prostate cancer. Adult men aged 46 and above completed a single questionnaire including demographic items and items concerning their smoking status and previous testing for prostate cancer. The questionnaire also included an 11 item numeracy scale. Compared to smokers, non-smokers and ex-smokers were around two times more likely to have undergone screening for prostate cancer, and had been tested more frequently. Smokers are not only more likely to develop prostate cancer, they are, paradoxically, less likely to undergo screening for prostate cancer. Health care professionals need to be cognizant of individual differences in screening behavior and that smokers have a reduced likelihood of choosing to screen. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd

What are the factors that contribute to road accidents? An assessment of law enforcement views, ordinary drivers’ opinions, and road accident records

What are the main contributing factors to road accidents? Factors such as inexperience, lack of skill, and risk-taking behaviors have been associated with the collisions of young drivers. In contrast, visual, cognitive, and mobility impairment have been associated with the collisions of older drivers. We investigated the main causes of road accidents by drawing on multiple sources: expert views of police officers, lay views of the driving public, and official road accident records. In Studies 1 and 2, police officers and the public were asked about the typical causes of road traffic collisions using hypothetical accident scenarios. In Study 3, we investigated whether the views of police officers and the public about accident causation influence their recall accuracy for factors reported to contribute to hypothetical road accidents. The results show that both expert views of police officers and lay views of the driving public closely approximated the typical factors associated with the collisions of young and older drivers, as determined from official accident records. The results also reveal potential underreporting of factors in existing accident records, identifying possible inadequacies in law enforcement practices for investigating driver distraction, drug and alcohol impairment, and uncorrected or defective eyesight. Our investigation also highlights a need for accident report forms to be continuously reviewed and updated to ensure that contributing factor lists reflect the full range of factors that contribute to road accidents. Finally, the views held by police officers and the public on accident causation influenced their memory recall of factors involved in hypothetical scenarios. These findings indicate that delay in completing accident report forms should be minimised, possibly by use of mobile reporting devices at the accident scene

Risk-Exposure Density and Mileage Bias in Crash Risk for Older Drivers

Driver crash rates per mile indicate high crash risk in older age. A reliance on mileage alone may underestimate risk exposure of older drivers as they tend to avoid highways and travel more on non-freeways (e.g., urban roads) that present greater hazards. We introduce risk exposure density as an index of exposure that incorporates mileage, frequency of travel, and travel duration. Population-wide driver fatalities in the U.S. during 2002?2012 were assessed per driver age (16?20, 21?29, 30?39, 40?49, 50?59, 60?69, >70 years) and gender. Mileage, frequency, and duration of travel per person were used to assess risk exposure. Mileage-based fatal crash risk increased greatly among male (RR=1.73; 95% CI:1.62,1.83) and female (RR=2.08; 95% CI:1.97,2.19) drivers from age 60?69 years to age >70 years. Adjusting for their density of risk exposure, fatal crash risk increased only slightly from age 60?69 years to age >70 years among male (RR=1.09; 95% CI:1.03,1.15) and female (RR=1.22; 95% CI:1.16,1.29) drivers. While ubiquitous in epidemiology research, mileage-based assessments can produce misleading accounts of driver risk. Risk exposure density incorporates multiple components of travel and reduces bias caused by any single indicator of risk exposure

How Do Psychiatrists Apply the Minimum Clinically Important Difference to Assess Patient Responses to Treatment?

Symptom report scales are used in clinical practice to monitor patient outcomes. Using them permits the definition of a minimum clinically important difference (MCID) beyond which a patient may be judged as having responded to treatment. Despite recommendations that clinicians routinely use MCIDs in clinical practice, statisticians disagree about how MCIDs should be used to evaluate individual patient outcomes and responses to treatment. To address this issue, we asked how clinicians actually use MCIDs to evaluate patient outcomes in response to treatment. Sixty-eight psychiatrists made judgments about whether hypothetical patients had responded to treatment based on their pre- and posttreatment change scores on the widely used Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Psychiatrists were provided with the scale’s MCID on which to base their judgments. Our secondary objective was to assess whether knowledge of the patient’s genotype influenced psychiatrists’ responder judgments. Thus, psychiatrists were also informed of whether patients possessed a genotype indicating hyperresponsiveness to treatment. While many psychiatrists appropriately used the MCID, others accepted a far lower posttreatment change as indicative of a response to treatment. When psychiatrists accepted a lower posttreatment change than the MCID, they were less confident in such judgments compared to when a patient’s posttreatment change exceeded the scale’s MCID. Psychiatrists were also less likely to identify patients as responders to treatment if they possessed a hyperresponsiveness genotype. Clinicians should recognize that when judging patient responses to treatment, they often tolerate lower response thresholds than warranted. At least some conflate their judgments with information, such as the patient’s genotype, that is irrelevant to a post hoc response-to-treatment assessment. Consequently, clinicians may be at risk of persisting with treatments that have failed to demonstrate patient benefits

Magnetic and Mössbauer spectroscopy studies of nanocrystalline iron oxide aerogels

A sol-gel synthesis was used to produce iron oxide aerogels. These nanocrystalline aerogels have a pore-solid structure similar to silica aerogels but are composed entirely of iron oxides. Mössbauer experiments and x-ray diffraction showed that the as-prepared aerogel is an amorphous or poorly crystalline iron oxide, which crystallized as a partially oxidized magnetite during heating in argon. After further heat treatment in air, the nanocrystallites are fully converted to maghemite. The particles are superparamagnetic at high temperatures, but the magnetic properties are strongly influenced by magnetic interactions between the particles at lower temperatures

The Social context of motorcycle riding and the key determinants influencing rider behavior: A qualitative investigation

Objective: Given the increasing popularity of motorcycle riding and heightened risk of injury or death associated with being a rider, this study explored rider behaviour as a determinant of rider safety and, in particular, key beliefs and motivations which influence such behaviour. To enhance the effectiveness of future education and training interventions, it is important to understand riders’ own views about what influences how they ride. Specifically, this study sought to identify key determinants of riders’ behaviour in relation to the social context of riding including social and identity-related influences relating to the group (group norms and group identity) as well as the self (moral/personal norm and self-identity). ----- ----- Method: Qualitative research was undertaken via group discussions with motorcycle riders (n = 41). Results: The findings revealed that those in the group with which one rides represent an important source of social influence. Also, the motorcyclist (group) identity was associated with a range of beliefs, expectations, and behaviours considered to be normative. Exploration of the construct of personal norm revealed that riders were most cognizant of the “wrong things to do” when riding; among those issues raised was the importance of protective clothing (albeit for the protection of others and, in particular, pillion passengers). Finally, self-identity as a motorcyclist appeared to be important to a rider’s self-concept and was likely to influence their on-road behaviour. ----- ----- Conclusion: Overall, the insight provided by the current study may facilitate the development of interventions including rider training as well as public education and mass media messages. The findings suggest that these interventions should incorporate factors associated with the social nature of riding in order to best align it with some of the key beliefs and motivations underpinning riders’ on-road behaviours

A study of the Methodist youth movement

https://place.asburyseminary.edu/ecommonsatsdissertations/2349/thumbnail.jp

Predicting prostate cancer treatment choices: The role of numeracy, time discounting, and risk attitudes

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer among males in the United States and there is lack of consensus as to whether active surveillance (AS) or radical prostatectomy (RP) is the best course of treatment. In this study we examined the role of three overlooked determinants of decision making about prostate cancer treatment in a hypothetical experiment—numeracy, time discounting, and risk taking in 279 men over age 50 without a prior prostate cancer diagnosis. Results showed that AS was the most frequently chosen option. Furthermore, numeracy and time discounting significantly predicted participants’ preference for AS, whereas a propensity to take risks was associated with a preference for RP. Such insights into the factors that affects cancer treatment preferences may improve tailored decision aids and help physicians be better poised to engage in shared decision-making to improve both patient-reported and clinical outcomes

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions

Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Methods. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Results. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. Conclusions. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations