Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, the authors find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly frequencies. In contrast, the main contribution is to show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency, which is rather robust and holds no matter whether the authors use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil prices in their regression. However, in the latter case the predictive ability is ephemeral, mostly appearing after instabilities have been appropriately taken into account.Foreign exchange rates ; Economic forecasting

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

This paper demonstrates that “commodity currency” exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting future global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample. A critical element of our in-sample approach is to allow for structural breaks, endemic to empirical exchange rate models, by implementing the approach of Rossi (2005b). Aside from its practical implications, our forecasting results provide perhaps the most convincing evidence to date that the exchange rate depends on the present value of identifiable exogenous fundamentals. We also find that the reverse relationship holds; that is, that commodity prices Granger-cause exchange rates. However, consistent with the vast post-Meese-Rogoff (1983a,b) literature on forecasting exchange rates, we find that the reverse forecasting regression does not survive out-of-sample testing. We argue, however, that it is quite plausible that exchange rates will be better predictors of exogenous commodity prices than vice-versa, because the exchange rate is fundamentally forward looking. Therefore, following Campbell and Shiller (1987) and Engel and West (2005), the exchange rate is likely to embody important information about future commodity price movements well beyond what econometricians can capture with simple time series models. In contrast, prices for most commodities are extremely sensitive to small shocks to current demand and supply, and are therefore likely to be less forward looking. J.E.L. Codes: C52, C53, F31, F47. Key words: Exchange rates, forecasting, commodity prices, random walk. Acknowledgements. We would like to thank C. Burnside, C. Engel, M. McCracken, R. Startz, V. Stavreklava, A. Tarozzi, M. Yogo and seminar participants at the University of Washington for comments. We are also grateful to various staff members of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the IMF for helpful discussions and for providing some of the data used in this paper.

CAN EXCHANGE RATES FORECAST COMMODITY PRICES?

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and world commodity price movements. Taking into account parameter instability, we demonstrate surprisingly robust evidence that exchange rates predict world commodity price movements, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Because commodity prices are exogenous to the exchange rates we consider, we are able to overcome the identification problems that plague the existing empirical exchange rate literature. Because our finding that exchange rates predict future commodity prices can be given a true causal interpretation, it provides the most concrete support yet for the importance of selected macroeconomic fundamentals in determining exchange rates. As an important by-product of our analysis, we show that exchange rate-based forecasts may be a viable alternative for predicting future commodity price movements.Exchange rates, forecasting, commodity prices, random walk

Children’s Reflections on Two Cultural Ways of Working Together: “Talking with Hands and Eyes” or Requiring Words

Forty-four pairs of Mexican-heritage and European-heritage US children were asked to characterize differences between two contrasting cultural patterns of working together in video clips that showed a) Mexican Indigenous-heritage children working together by collaborating, helping, observing others, and using nonverbal as well as verbal communication, and b) middle-class European-American children working alone and using predominantly verbal communication.Through experience in two cultural settings, bilingual Mexican-heritage US children may become familiar with these contrasting cultural patterns that have been identified in research. Mexican-heritage US children characterized the clips in ways that corresponded with researchers’ descriptions more often than did European-heritage children, when discussing working together and helping but not when discussing communication.The children from the two backgrounds differed in their treatment of talk. In addition to talking more overall, half of the European-heritage US children considered talk a requirement for working together or helping, excluding nonverbal communication as a way of working together or helping. In contrast, the Mexican-heritage US children included nonverbal communication as a means of working together and helping, and some seemed to include nonverbal communication as a form of talking

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We offer a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances.

Pathways Forward for Indigenous Language Reclamation: Engaging Indigenous Epistemology and Learning by Observing and Pitching in to Family and Community Endeavors

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155958/1/modl12652.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/155958/2/modl12652_am.pd

Firsthand learning through intent participation

This article examines how people learn by actively observing and “listening-in” on ongoing activities as they participate in shared endeavors. Keen observationand listening-in are especially valued and used in some cultural communities in which children are part of mature community activities. This intent participation also occurs in some settings (such as early language learning in the family) in communities that routinely segregate children from the full range of adult activities. However, in the past century some industrial societies have relied on a specialized form of instruction that seems to accompany segregation of children from adult settings, in which adults “transmit” information to children. We contrast these two traditions of organizing learning in terms of their participation structure, the roles of more-and less-experienced people, distinctions in motivation and purpose, sources of learning (observation in ongoing activity versus lessons), forms of communication, and the role of assessment

Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?

We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in many individual commodities, and broad aggregate commodity indices in particular. We also explore the reverse relationship (commodity prices forecasting exchange rates) but find it to be notably less robust. We o§er a theoretical resolution, based on the fact that exchange rates are strongly forward looking, whereas commodity price fluctuations are typically more sensitive to short-term demand imbalances.Economic

Firsthand learning through intent participation

Este artigo foi originalmente publicado na Annual Review of Psychology, Fevereiro 2003, vol. 54, pp. 175-203. Foi reeditado, neste número especial de Análise Psicológica, com as devidas autorizações.This article examines how people learn by actively observing and “listening-in” on ongoing activities as they participate in shared endeavors. Keen observation and listening-in are especially valued and used in some cultural communities in which children are part of mature community activities. This intent participation also occurs in some settings (such as early language learning in the family) in communities that routinely segregate children from the full range of adult activities. However, in the past century some industrial societies have relied on a specialized form of instruction that seems to accompany segregation of children from adult settings, in which adults “transmit” information to children. We contrast these two traditions of organizing learning in terms of their participation structure, the roles of more- and less-experienced people, distinctions in motivation and purpose, sources of learning (observation in ongoing activity versus lessons), forms of communication, and the role of assessment.Este artigo analisa como as pessoas aprendem pela observação e escuta activas (“listening in”) enquanto participantes no esforço partilhado exigido pelas actividades quotidianas. A observação interessada e a escuta são particularmente valorizadas e usadas enquanto formas de aprendizagem, em algumas comunidades culturais, nas quais as crianças fazem parte das actividades da comunidade adulta. Esta participação atenta “intent participation”) também acongtece em alguns contextos (como a aprendizagem precoce da linguagem na família), em comunidades que, nas suas rotinas, segregam as crianças da maioria das actividades dos adultos. Contudo, no século passado, algumas sociedades industriais confiaram numa forma de instrução especializada que parece acompanhar a segregação das crianças das actividades da comunidade adulta, através da qual os adultos “transmitem” informação às crianças. Neste artigo estabelecemos o contraste entre estas duas tradições de organização da aprendizagem, em termos da sua estrutura de participação, dos papeis dos mais e dos menos experientes, distinções entre motivação e propósito (“purpose”), fontes de aprendizagem (observação de actividades versus lições), formas de comunicação, e o papel da avaliação.Spencer Foundation and the National Institutes of Health; UCSC Foundationinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio