Improving the twilight model for polar cap absorption nowcasts

During Solar Proton Events (SPE), energetic protons ionize the polar mesosphere causing HF radiowave attenuation, more strongly on the dayside where the effective recombination coefficient, αeff, is low. Polar cap absorption (PCA) models predict the 30 MHz cosmic noise absorption, A, measured by riometers, based on real-time measurements of the integrated proton flux-energy spectrum, J. However, empirical models in common use cannot account for regional and day-to-day variations in the day- and nighttime profiles of αeff(z) or the related sensitivity parameter, m=A/√J. Large prediction errors occur during twilight when m changes rapidly, and due to errors locating the rigidity cutoff latitude. Modeling the twilight change in m as a linear or Gauss error-function transition over a range of solar-zenith angles (χl < χ < χu) provides a better fit to measurements than selecting day or night αeff profiles based on the Earth-shadow height. Optimal model parameters were determined for several polar cap riometers for large SPEs in 1998-2005. The optimal χl parameter was found to be most variable, with smaller values (as low as 60°) post-sunrise compared with pre-sunset, and with positive correlation between riometers over a wide area. Day and night values of m exhibited higher correlation for closely spaced riometers. A nowcast simulation is presented in which rigidity boundary latitude and twilight model parameters are optimized by assimilating age-weighted measurements from 25 riometers. The technique reduces model bias, and root-mean-squared errors are reduced by up to 30% compared with a model employing no riometer data assimilation

Differential rates of perinatal maturation of human primary and nonprimary auditory cortex

Abstract Primary and nonprimary cerebral cortex mature along different timescales; however, the differences between the rates of maturation of primary and nonprimary cortex are unclear. Cortical maturation can be measured through changes in tissue microstructure detectable by diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In this study, diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was used to characterize the maturation of Heschl’s gyrus (HG), which contains both primary auditory cortex (pAC) and nonprimary auditory cortex (nAC), in 90 preterm infants between 26 and 42 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA). The preterm infants were in different acoustical environments during their hospitalization: 46 in open ward beds and 44 in single rooms. A control group consisted of 15 term-born infants. Diffusion parameters revealed that (1) changes in cortical microstructure that accompany cortical maturation had largely already occurred in pAC by 28 weeks PMA, and (2) rapid changes were taking place in nAC between 26 and 42 weeks PMA. At term equivalent PMA, diffusion parameters for auditory cortex were different between preterm infants and term control infants, reflecting either delayed maturation or injury. No effect of room type was observed. For the preterm group, disturbed maturation of nonprimary (but not primary) auditory cortex was associated with poorer language performance at age two years

A Global Statistical Model of Extreme Geomagnetic Field Fluctuations

The statistics of unusually high rates of change in the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field (dB/dt) are a useful indicator of the likelihood of damaging geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in ground-based infrastructure such as electricity networks. Using extreme value theory (Coles, 2001) we present a global model of the probability of extreme |dB/dt| based on several decades of measurements from 125 magnetometers worldwide, with time cadences (dt) ranging from 1 to 60 minutes. The occurrence rate of peaks in |dB/dt| above the 99.97th percentile is a function of magnetic latitude, magnetic local time, month, sunspot number, solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions, and the direction of the field fluctuation. This information may be used to improve the extreme value model. The patterns of occurrence are presented and compared with previously studied distributions of Sudden Commencements, Pc5 ULF waves, and auroral substorm onsets, giving insight into the relative importance of these drivers in GIC modelling. Reference: S. Coles, An introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer-Verlag London ltd, 2001

MR diffusion changes in the perimeter of the lateral ventricles demonstrate periventricular injury in post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus of prematurity

OBJECTIVES: Injury to the preterm lateral ventricular perimeter (LVP), which contains the neural stem cells responsible for brain development, may contribute to the neurological sequelae of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) and post-hemorrhagic hydrocephalus of prematurity (PHH). This study utilizes diffusion MRI (dMRI) to characterize the microstructural effects of IVH/PHH on the LVP and segmented frontal-occipital horn perimeters (FOHP). STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study of 56 full-term infants, 72 very preterm infants without brain injury (VPT), 17 VPT infants with high-grade IVH without hydrocephalus (HG-IVH), and 13 VPT infants with PHH who underwent dMRI at term equivalent. LVP and FOHP dMRI measures and ventricular size-dMRI correlations were assessed. RESULTS: In the LVP, PHH had consistently lower FA and higher MD and RD than FT and VPT (p\u3c.050). However, while PHH FA was lower, and PHH RD was higher than their respective HG-IVH measures (p\u3c.050), the MD and AD values did not differ. In the FOHP, PHH infants had lower FA and higher RD than FT and VPT (p\u3c.010), and a lower FA than the HG-IVH group (p\u3c.001). While the magnitude of AD in both the LVP and FOHP were consistently less in the PHH group on pairwise comparisons to the other groups, the differences were not significant (p\u3e.050). Ventricular size correlated negatively with FA, and positively with MD and RD (p\u3c.001) in both the LVP and FOHP. In the PHH group, FA was lower in the FOHP than in the LVP, which was contrary to the observed findings in the healthy infants (p\u3c.001). Nevertheless, there were no regional differences in AD, MD, and RD in the PHH group. CONCLUSION: HG-IVH and PHH results in aberrant LVP/FOHP microstructure, with prominent abnormalities among the PHH group, most notably in the FOHP. Larger ventricular size was associated with greater magnitude of abnormality. LVP/FOHP dMRI measures may provide valuable biomarkers for future studies directed at improving the management and neurological outcomes of IVH/PHH

Solar flare induced cosmic noise absorption

Solar flare events are a major observing emphasis for space weather because they affect the Earth's upper atmosphere and can eject high-energy particles that can adversely affect Earth's technologies. In this study we model 38.2 MHz cosmic noise absorption (CNA) by utilising measurements from the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies (IRIS) at Kilpisjärvi, Finland obtained during solar cycle 23 (1996-2009). We utilised X-ray archive for the same period from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to study solar flare induced cosmic noise absorption. We identified the threshold of flare (M4 class class) that could bear significant influence on CNA. Through epoch analysis, we show the magnitude of absorption that each class of flare could produce. Using the parameters of flare and absorption we present a model that could provide the basis for nowcast of CNA

Developments in an HF Nowcasting Model for Trans-Polar Airline Routes

HF communications can be difficult in the polar regions since they are strongly influenced by space weather events. Airline communications within the polar regions rely on HF communications and improved nowcasting and forecasting techniques in support of this are now required. Previous work has demonstrated that ray tracing through a realistic, historical ionosphere provides signal coverage in good agreement with measurements. This paper presents an approach to providing a real-time ionospheric model by assimilating TEC measurements and validates it against observations from ionosondes

Synthesizing pseudo-T2w images to recapture missing data in neonatal neuroimaging with applications in rs-fMRI

T1- and T2-weighted (T1w and T2w) images are essential for tissue classification and anatomical localization in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) analyses. However, these anatomical data can be challenging to acquire in non-sedated neonatal cohorts, which are prone to high amplitude movement and display lower tissue contrast than adults. As a result, one of these modalities may be missing or of such poor quality that they cannot be used for accurate image processing, resulting in subject loss. While recent literature attempts to overcome these issues in adult populations using synthetic imaging approaches, evaluation of the efficacy of these methods in pediatric populations and the impact of these techniques in conventional MR analyses has not been performed. In this work, we present two novel methods to generate pseudo-T2w images: the first is based in deep learning and expands upon previous models to 3D imaging without the requirement of paired data, the second is based in nonlinear multi-atlas registration providing a computationally lightweight alternative. We demonstrate the anatomical accuracy of pseudo-T2w images and their efficacy in existing MR processing pipelines in two independent neonatal cohorts. Critically, we show that implementing these pseudo-T2w methods in resting-state functional MRI analyses produces virtually identical functional connectivity results when compared to those resulting from T2w images, confirming their utility in infant MRI studies for salvaging otherwise lost subject data