Context aware Q-Learning-based model for decision support in the negotiation of energy contracts

[EN] Automated negotiation plays a crucial role in the decision support for bilateral energy transactions. In fact, an adequate analysis of past actions of opposing negotiators can improve the decision-making process of market players, allowing them to choose the most appropriate parties to negotiate with in order to increase their outcomes. This paper proposes a new model to estimate the expected prices that can be achieved in bilateral contracts under a specific context, enabling adequate risk management in the negotiation process. The proposed approach is based on an adaptation of the Q-Learning reinforcement learning algorithm to choose the best scenario (set of forecast contract prices) from a set of possible scenarios that are determined using several forecasting and estimation methods. The learning process assesses the probability of occurrence of each scenario, by comparing each expected scenario with the real scenario. The final chosen scenario is the one that presents the higher expected utility value. Besides, the learning method can determine which is the best scenario for each context, since the behaviour of players can change according to the negotiation environment. Consequently, these conditions influence the final contract price of negotiations. This approach allows the supported player to be prepared for the negotiation scenario that is the most probable to represent a reliable approximation of the actual negotiation environme

In situ degradability of elephant grass ensiled with acerola by-product.

This study evaluated the inclusion of increasing contents (0; 35; 70; 105 and 140 g kg-1) of dried acerola fruit (Malpighia glabra, Linn.) by-product (DABP) in the ensilage of elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum, Schum.) considering the in situ degradability of dry matter (DM), crude protein (CP), neutral detergent fiber (NDF), acid detergent fiber (ADF) and hemicellulose. Plastic drums with 210 L capacity were used as experimental silos. After 45 days of ensiling, silos were opened and silage samples were collected for the degradability trial and laboratory analysis. For the in situ degradability trial, was used one rumen-fistulated adult male cattle. The five by-product inclusion contents were tested in three replicates, with five incubation times, in a randomized complete split-plot design in which the contents of DABP were the treatments (plots), the different silos were the replicates and the incubation times were the sub-plots. Longer incubation times significantly increased (P < 0.05) the disappearance rates of DM, CP, NDF, ADF and hemicellulose. The effective degradability of the DM, NDF and hemicellulose was higher in the silages with 35 g kg-1 of DABP in the rumen passage rates of 0.02; 0.05 and 0.08 h-1. Dried acerola fruit by-product can be added to elephant grass ensiling up to 35 g kg-1 without reducing the effective degradability of nutrients

On the statistics of superlocalized states in self-affine disordered potentials

We investigate the statistics of eigenstates in a weak self-affine disordered potential in one dimension, whose Gaussian fluctuations grow with distance with a positive Hurst exponent $H$. Typical eigenstates are superlocalized on samples much larger than a well-defined crossover length, which diverges in the weak-disorder regime. We present a parallel analytical investigation of the statistics of these superlocalized states in the discrete and the continuum formalisms. For the discrete tight-binding model, the effective localization length decays logarithmically with the sample size, and the logarithm of the transmission is marginally self-averaging. For the continuum Schr\"odinger equation, the superlocalization phenomenon has more drastic effects. The effective localization length decays as a power of the sample length, and the logarithm of the transmission is fully non-self-averaging.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figure

Maximum swimming speeds of sailfish and three other large marine predatory fish species based on muscle contraction time and stride length: a myth revisited

Billfishes are considered to be among the fastest swimmers in the oceans. Previous studies have estimated maximum speed of sailfish and black marlin at around 35 m s−1 but theoretical work on cavitation predicts that such extreme speed is unlikely. Here we investigated maximum speed of sailfish, and three other large marine pelagic predatory fish species, by measuring the twitch contraction time of anaerobic swimming muscle. The highest estimated maximum swimming speeds were found in sailfish (8.3±1.4 m s−1), followed by barracuda (6.2±1.0 m s−1), little tunny (5.6±0.2 m s−1) and dorado (4.0±0.9 m s−1); although size-corrected performance was highest in little tunny and lowest in sailfish. Contrary to previously reported estimates, our results suggest that sailfish are incapable of exceeding swimming speeds of 10-15 m s−1, which corresponds to the speed at which cavitation is predicted to occur, with destructive consequences for fin tissues

Evolution of metabolic risk factors over a two-year period in a cohort of first episodes of psychosis

Patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) display a broad range of metabolic risk factors related to the development of diverse medical comorbidities. Initial stages of these disorders are essential in understanding the increased vulnerability of developing cardiometabolic disturbances, associated with a reduced life expectancy. This study aimed to evaluate the metabolic profile of a cohort of patients with a FEP and its evolution during a two year follow-up, as well as the factors that influence the changes in their metabolic status. 16 participating centers from the PEPs Project recruited 335 subjects with a FEP and 253 matched healthy controls, aged 9–35 years. We investigated a set of anthropometric measures, vital signs and laboratory data obtained from each participant over two years in a prospective, naturalistic study. From the beginning of the study the FEP group showed differences in the metabolic profile compared to the control group, together with a progressive worsening in the major part of the analyzed variables during the follow-up period, with higher rates of obesity and metabolic syndrome. Certain risk factors were related to determinate clinical variables such as male gender, the presence of affective symptoms or an early onset or to treatment variables such as the use of antipsychotic polypharmacy, antidepressants or mood stabilizers. Our results highlight the extremely high risk of patients at early phases of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders of developing cardiovascular comorbidity and the fast worsening of the metabolic profile during the first two years

Challenges in Estimating Insecticide Selection Pressures from Mosquito Field Data

Insecticide resistance has the potential to compromise the enormous effort put into the control of dengue and malaria vector populations. It is therefore important to quantify the amount of selection acting on resistance alleles, their contributions to fitness in heterozygotes (dominance) and their initial frequencies, as a means to predict the rate of spread of resistance in natural populations. We investigate practical problems of obtaining such estimates, with particular emphasis on Mexican populations of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti. Selection and dominance coefficients can be estimated by fitting genetic models to field data using maximum likelihood (ML) methodology. This methodology, although widely used, makes many assumptions so we investigated how well such models perform when data are sparse or when spatial and temporal heterogeneity occur. As expected, ML methodologies reliably estimated selection and dominance coefficients under idealised conditions but it was difficult to recover the true values when datasets were sparse during the time that resistance alleles increased in frequency, or when spatial and temporal heterogeneity occurred. We analysed published data on pyrethroid resistance in Mexico that consists of the frequency of a Ile1,016 mutation. The estimates for selection coefficient and initial allele frequency on the field dataset were in the expected range, dominance coefficient points to incomplete dominance as observed in the laboratory, although these estimates are accompanied by strong caveats about possible impact of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in selection

Relapse, cognitive reserve, and their relationship with cognition in first episode schizophrenia: a 3-year follow-up study

Schizophrenia is frequently characterized by the presence of multiple relapses. Cognitive impairments are core features of schizophrenia. Cognitive reserve (CR) is the ability of the brain to compensate for damage caused by pathologies such as psychotic illness. As cognition is related to CR, the study of the relationship between relapse, cognition and CR may broaden our understanding of the course of the disease. We aimed to determine whether relapse was associated with cognitive impairment, controlling for the effects of CR. Ninety-nine patients with a remitted first episode of schizophrenia or schizophreniform disorder were administered a set of neuropsychological tests to assess premorbid IQ, attention, processing speed, working memory, verbal and visual memory, executive functions and social cognition. They were followed up for 3 years (n=53) or until they relapsed (n=46). Personal and familial CR was estimated from a principal component analysis of the premorbid information gathered. Linear mixed-effects models were applied to analyse the effect of time and relapse on cognitive function, with CR as covariate. Patients who relapsed and had higher personal CR showed less deterioration in attention, whereas those with higher CR (personal and familial CR) who did not relapse showed better performance in processing speed and visual memory. Taken together, CR seems to ameliorate the negative effects of relapse on attention performance and shows a positive effect on processing speed and visual memory in those patients who did not relapse. Our results add evidence for the protective effect of CR over the course of the illness

Six-month outcomes from a randomized trial augmenting serotonin reuptake inhibitors with exposure and response prevention or risperidone in adults with obsessive-compulsive disorder

OBJECTIVE: To compare outcomes after 6-month maintenance treatment of adults diagnosed with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) based on DSM-IV criteria who responded to acute treatment with serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) augmented by exposure and response prevention (EX/RP) or risperidone. METHOD: A randomized trial was conducted at 2 academic sites from January 2007 through December 2012. In the acute phase, 100 patients on therapeutic SRI dose with at least moderate OCD severity were randomized to 8 weeks of EX/RP, risperidone, or pill placebo. Responders entered the 6-month maintenance phase, continuing the augmentation strategy they received acutely (n = 30 EX/RP, n = 8 risperidone). Independent evaluations were conducted every month. The main outcome was the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS). RESULTS: Intent-to-treat analyses indicated that, after 6-month maintenance treatment, EX/RP yielded OCD outcomes that were superior to risperidone (Y-BOCS = 10.95 vs 18.70; t40 = 2.76, P = .009); more patients randomized to EX/RP met response criteria (Y-BOCS decrease \u3e/= 25%: 70% vs 20%; P \u3c .001) and achieved minimal symptoms (Y-BOC

Degradabilidade in situ do Capim-Massai (Panicum maximum cv. Massai) oriundo de caatinga raleada e enriquecida.

Resumo: Objetivou-se determinar a degradação potencial e efetiva do Capim Massai (Panicum maximum cv. Massai) em ovinos. Dois carneiros Morada Nova foram utilizados nesse ensaio. O Capim Massai apresentou bom potencial de degradação para a matéria seca e proteína bruta, entretanto, baixos para a fibra em detergente neutro. [In situ degradability of Massai grass (Panicum maximum cv. Massai) in thinned and enriched caatinga]. Abstract: We aimed to evaluate the potential and effective degradation of Massai grass (Panicum maximum cv. Massai). Two Morada Nova male sheep were used in this assay. The Massai grass has good potential of dry matter and crude protein degradation, but, to neutral detergent fiber, this forage has lower degradatio

Degradabilidade potencial e efetiva in situ da MS, PB e FDN do sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia).

Para a sustentabilidade da produção animal na caatinga, deve-se atentar a preservação e valor nutritivo das espécies mais consumidas pelos animais. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho foi avaliar a degradabilidade potencial (DP) e efetiva (DE) da matéria seca (MS), proteína bruta (PB) e fibra em detergente neutro (FDN) do sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniefolia).Edición de las Memorias de la 25a. Reunión de la Asociación Latinoamericana de Producción Animal (ALPA), 2016, Recife, Brasil