Application of Single-Station Sigma and Site-Response Characterization in a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for a New Nuclear Site

Aleatory variability in ground-motion prediction, represented by the standard deviation (sigma) of a ground-motion prediction equation, exerts a very strong influence on the results of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This is especially so at the low annual exceedance frequencies considered for nuclear facilities; in these cases, even small reductions in sigma can have a marked effect on the hazard estimates. Proper separation and quantification of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty can lead to defensible reductions in sigma. One such approach is the single-station sigma concept, which removes that part of sigma corresponding to repeatable site-specific effects. However, the site-to-site component must then be constrained by site-specific measurements or else modeled as epistemic uncertainty and incorporated into the modeling of site effects. The practical application of the single-station sigma concept, including the characterization of the dynamic properties of the site and the incorporation of site-response effects into the hazard calculations, is illustrated for a PSHA conducted at a rock site under consideration for the potential construction of a nuclear power plant.Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineerin

Probabilistic Assessment of Liquefaction Over Large Areas

Since the 1964 Niigata, Japan, earthquake, damages attributed to earthquake induced liquefaction phenomena have cost society hundreds of millions U.S. dollars. Most procedures developed so far predict the potential for earthquake induced liquefaction at the “point” or over the small area, where the soil strength is evaluated. This paper describes a technique to estimate the probability of earthquake induced liquefaction over arbitrary large areas. The proposed technique may be of special interest to both large corporation and insurance company risk management departments, which are looking at estimating earthquake damages over a large area. The area of interest is meshed forming a grid of individual cells, for which the probability of liquefaction is estimated. The probability of liquefaction for a given percentage of the total area is then computed as a system reliability problem

Scenario dependence of linear site-effect factors for short-period response spectral ordinates

Ground‐motion models for response spectral ordinates commonly partition site‐response effects into linear and nonlinear components. The nonlinear components depend upon the earthquake scenario being considered implicitly through the use of the expected level of excitation at some reference horizon. The linear components are always assumed to be independent of the earthquake scenario. This article presents empirical and numerical evidence as well as a theoretical explanation for why the linear component of site response depends upon the magnitude and distance of the earthquake scenario. Although the impact is most pronounced for small‐magnitude scenarios, the finding has significant implications for a number of applications of more general interest including the development of site‐response terms within ground‐motion models, the estimation of ground‐motion variability components ϕS2SϕS2S and ϕSSϕSS , the construction of partially nonergodic models for site‐specific hazard assessments, and the validity of the convolution approach for computing surface hazard curves from those at a reference horizon, among others. All of these implications are discussed in the present article

Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

Major efforts are being undertaken to quantify seismic hazard and risk due to production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field as the basis for rational decision-making about mitigation measures. An essential element is a model to estimate surface ground motions expected at any location for each earthquake originating within the gas reservoir. Taking advantage of the excellent geological and geophysical characterisation of the field and a growing database of ground-motion recordings, models have been developed for predicting response spectral accelerations, peak ground velocity and ground-motion durations for a wide range of magnitudes. The models reflect the unique source and travel path characteristics of the Groningen earthquakes, and account for the inevitable uncertainty in extrapolating from the small observed magnitudes to potential larger events. The predictions of ground-motion amplitudes include the effects of nonlinear site response of the relatively soft near-surface deposits throughou t the field

Derivation of a near-surface damping model for the Groningen gas field

Seismic damping of near-surface deposits is an important input to site-response analysis for seismic hazard assessment. In Groningen, the Netherlands, gas production from a reservoir at 3 km depth causes seismicity. Above the gas field, an 800 m thick layer of unconsolidated sediments exist, which consists of a mixture of sand, gravel, clay and peat strata. Shear waves induced at 3 km depth experience most of their anelastic attenuation in these loose sediments. A good estimate of damping is therefore crucial for modeling realistic ground-motion levels. In Groningen, we take advantage of a large network of 200 m deep vertical arrays to estimate damping from recordings of the induced events. As a first step, we apply seismic interferometry by deconvolution to estimate local transfer functions over these vertical arrays. Subsequently, two different methods are employed. The first is the ’up-going’ method, where the amplitude decay of the retrieved up-going wave is used. The second is the ’up-down’ method, where the amplitude difference between retrieved up- and down-going waves is utilized. For the up-going method, the amplitude of the up-going direct wave is affected by both elastic and anelastic effects. In order to estimate the anelastic attenuation it is necessary to remove the elastic amplification first. Despite the fact that elastic compensation could be determined quite accurately, non-physical damping values were estimated for a number of boreholes. Likely, the underlying cause was small differences in effective response functions of geophones at different depths. It was found that the up-down method is more robust. With this method, elastic propagation corrections are not needed. In addition, small differences in in situ geophone response are irrelevant because the up- and down-going waves retrieved at the same geophone, are used. For the 1D case we showed that for estimating the local transfer function, the complex reverberations need to be included in the interferometric process. Only when this is done, the transfer function does not contain elastic transmission loss and Q estimation can be made without knowing the soil profile in detail. Uncertainty in the estimated damping was found from the signal-to-noise ratio of the estimated transfer function. The Q profiles estimated with the up-down method were used to derive a damping model for the top 200 m of the entire Groningen field. A scaling relation was derived by comparing estimated Q profiles with low-strain damping profiles that were constructed using published models for low-strain damping linked to soil properties. This scaling relation, together with the soil-properties based damping model, allowed up-scaling of the model to each grid-cell in the Groningen field. For depths below 200 m, damping was derived from the attenuation of the microseism over Groningen. The mean damping model, over a frequency band between 2 and 20 Hz, was estimated to be 2.0% (0-50 m depth), 1.3% (50-100 m), 0.66% (100-150 m), 0.57% (150-200 m) and 0.5% (200-580 m)

Derivation of a near-surface damping model for the Groningen gas field

Seismic damping of near-surface deposits is an important input to site-response analysis for seismic hazard assessment. In Groningen, the Netherlands, gas production from a reservoir at 3 km depth causes seismicity. Above the gas field, an 800 m thick layer of unconsolidated sediments exist, which consists of a mixture of sand, gravel, clay and peat strata. Shear waves induced at 3 km depth experience most of their anelastic attenuation in these loose sediments. A good estimate of damping is therefore crucial for modelling realistic ground-motion levels. In Groningen, we take advantage of a large network of 200 m deep vertical arrays to estimate damping from recordings of the induced events. As a first step, we apply seismic interferometry by deconvolution to estimate local transfer functions over these vertical arrays. Subsequently, two different methods are employed. The first is the 'upgoing' method, where the amplitude decay of the retrieved upgoing wave is used. The second is the 'up-down' method, where the amplitude difference between retrieved up- and downgoing waves is utilized. For the upgoing method, the amplitude of the upgoing direct wave is affected by both elastic and anelastic effects. In order to estimate the anelastic attenuation, it is necessary to remove the elastic amplification first. Despite the fact that elastic compensation could be determined quite accurately, non-physical damping values were estimated for a number of boreholes. Likely, the underlying cause was small differences in effective response functions of geophones at different depths. It was found that the up-down method is more robust. With this method, elastic propagation corrections are not needed. In addition, small differences in in situ geophone response are irrelevant because the up- and downgoing waves retrieved at the same geophone are used. For the 1-D case, we showed that for estimating the local transfer function, the complex reverberations need to be included in the interferometric process. Only when this is done, the transfer function does not contain elastic transmission loss and Q estimation can be made without knowing the soil profile in detail. Uncertainty in the estimated damping was found from the signal-to-noise ratio of the estimated transfer function. The Q profiles estimated with the up-down method were used to derive a damping model for the top 200 m of the entire Groningen field. A scaling relation was derived by comparing estimated Q profiles with low-strain damping profiles that were constructed using published models for low-strain damping linked to soil properties. This scaling relation, together with the soil-property-based damping model, allowed up-scaling of the model to each grid-cell in the Groningen field. For depths below 200 m, damping was derived from the attenuation of the microseism over Groningen. The mean damping model, over a frequency band between 2 and 20 Hz, was estimated to be 2.0 per cent (0-50 m depth), 1.3 per cent (50-100 m), 0.66 per cent (100-150 m), 0.57 per cent (150-200 m) and 0.5 per cent (200-580 m)

Lorentz Invariance Violation induced time delays in GRBs in different cosmological models

Lorentz Invariance Violation (LIV) manifesting itself by energy dependent modification of standard relativistic dispersion relation has recently attracted a considerable attention. Ellis et al. previously investigated the energy dependent time offsets in different energy bands on a sample of gamma ray bursts and, assuming standard cosmological model, they found a weak indication for redshift dependence of time delays suggestive of LIV. Going beyond the $\Lambda$CDM cosmology we extend this analysis considering also four alternative models of dark energy (quintessence with constant and variable equation of state, Chaplygin gas and brane-world cosmology). It turns out that the effect noticed by Ellis et al. is also present in those models and is the strongest for quintessence with variable equation of state.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figur

Liquefaction hazard of the Groningen region of the Netherlands due to induced seismicity

The operator of the Groningen gas field is leading an effort to quantify the seismic hazard and riskof the region due to induced earthquakes, includingoverseeing one of the most comprehensive liquefaction hazard studies performedgloballyto date. Due tothe unique characteristics of the seismic hazard and the geologic deposits in Groningen, efforts first focused on developing relationships for a Groningen-specific liquefaction triggering model. The liquefaction hazard was then assessedusing a Monte Carlo method, wherein a range of credibleevent scenarios were considered in computingliquefaction damage-potentialhazard curves. Thiseffort entailed the use of a regional stochastic seismic source model,ground motion prediction equation,site response model,and geologic model that were developed as part of the broader regional seismic hazardassessment.“No-to-Minor Surficial Liquefaction Manifestations”arepredicted for mostsites across the study areafor a 75-year return period. The only sites where “Moderate Surficial Liquefaction Manifestations” are predicted are in the town of Zandeweer, with only some of the sites in the townbeing predicted to experience this severityof liquefactionfor thisreturn period

Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm experiment with relativistic massive particles

The EPRB experiment with massive partcles can be formulated if one defines spin in a relativistic way. Two versions are discussed: The one using the spin operator defined via the relativistic center-of-mass operator, and the one using the Pauli-Lubanski vector. Both are shown to lead to the SAME prediction for the EPRB experiment: The degree of violation of the Bell inequality DECREASES with growing velocity of the EPR pair of spin-1/2 particles. The phenomenon can be physically understood as a combined effect of the Lorentz contraction and the Moller shift of the relativistic center of mass. The effect is therefore stronger than standard relativistic phenomena such as the Lorentz contraction or time dilatation. The fact that the Bell inequality is in general less violated than in the nonrelativistic case will have to be taken into account in tests for eavesdropping if massive particles will be used for a key transfer.Comment: Figures added as appeared in PRA, two typos corrected (one important in the formula for eigenvector in Sec. IV); link to the unpublished 1984 paper containing the results (without typos!) of Sec. IV is adde

A database of ground-motion recordings, site profiles, and amplification factors from the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands

A comprehensive database that has been used to develop ground motion models for induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field is provided in a freely accessible online repository. The database includes more than 8500 processed ground motion recordings from 87 earthquakes of local magnitude ML between 1.8 and 3.6, obtained from a large network of surface accelerographs and borehole geophones placed at 50 m depth intervals to a depth of 200 m. The 5%-damped pseudo-acceleration spectra and Fourier amplitude spectra of the records are also provided. Measured shear-wave velocity (VS) profiles, obtained primarily from seismic Cone Penetration Tests (CPTs), are provided for 80 of the ∼100 recording stations. A model representing the regional dynamic soil properties is presented for the entire gas field plus a 5 km onshore buffer zone, specifying lithology, VS, and damping for all layers above the reference baserock horizon located at about 800 m depth. Transfer functions and frequency-dependent amplification factors from the reference rock horizon to the surface for the locations of the recording stations are also included. The database provides a valuable resource for further refinement of induced seismic hazard and risk modeling in Groningen as well as for generic research in site response of thick, soft soil deposits and the characteristics of ground motions from small-magnitude, shallow-focus induced earthquakes