Preface

10th IEEE International Conference on eScience (eScience).\ud 1st eScience Workshop of Works in Progress (WWP).\ud Guarujá, Brasil. 20-24 october 2014

Risks and economic analysis of orange culture: case study of a producer from the interior of São Paulo State, Brazil

The Brazilian citriculture is one of the activities that generate the most income within the agrobusiness, being responsible for providing opportunities for thousands of direct and indirect workers, besides being a sector that moves a great amount of financial resources. The orange crop has been going through great price swings in the recent years, and with this, many farmers are failing to invest in potential, as a result of the risks involved in the activity. A large part of these risks is related to the buyer market, which is controlled by the large juice industries and by the high capital required for the implementation of the new orchards. The objective of this work is to identify the risk factors for attractiveness and to analyze the economic viability of the orange crop in a farm in the municipality of Bauru, in the state of São Paulo. For this, the Monte Carlo method be used to simulate the probabilities of success in the scenarios analyzed and the NPV, IRR and Payback to determine the feasibility of the project. The research is characterized as a case study. The results obtained showed that the investment is feasible, only in the real and optimistic scenario and will provide a return between the 6th and the 7th year of the project, providing a balance of approximately R$4,190,252.94 after 10 years of investment which represents an attractive compared to the initial investment value of R$ 937,500.00

Risks and economic analysis of orange culture: case study of a producer from the interior of São Paulo State, Brazil

The Brazilian citriculture is one of the activities that generate the most income within the agrobusiness, being responsible for providing opportunities for thousands of direct and indirect workers, besides being a sector that moves a great amount of financial resources. The orange crop has been going through great price swings in the recent years, and with this, many farmers are failing to invest in potential, as a result of the risks involved in the activity. A large part of these risks is related to the buyer market, which is controlled by the large juice industries and by the high capital required for the implementation of the new orchards. The objective of this work is to identify the risk factors for attractiveness and to analyze the economic viability of the orange crop in a farm in the municipality of Bauru, in the state of São Paulo. For this, the Monte Carlo method be used to simulate the probabilities of success in the scenarios analyzed and the NPV, IRR and Payback to determine the feasibility of the project. The research is characterized as a case study. The results obtained showed that the investment is feasible, only in the real and optimistic scenario and will provide a return between the 6th and the 7th year of the project, providing a balance of approximately R$4,190,252.94 after 10 years of investment which represents an attractive compared to the initial investment value of R$ 937,500.00

Fragilidade financeira externa é os limites da política cambial no real

This article assesses the impacts of Brazil's exchan e- based stabilization plan (Plano Real) on Sexternal financial fragility and discuss exchange policy to Overcome the Br vulnerability. In order to the country's es alternative azil's external do so, we have developed an index for this external financial fragility, which is applied to a time series of foreign sector variables from 1992 to 1997. The evidences show that Brazilian external financial fragility has grown during the first three years and half after the Real Plan, particularly in 1996 and 1997. Using this evidence, the paper questions the effectiveness the of government's adjustment strategy for the industrial sector, based on four pillars: price stabilization, capital trade and liberalization and exchange appreciation. we Finally, conclude that the scope for changes in currently exchange policy is too small: the government is prisoner of a self-inflicted “exchange trap”.Este artigo avalia os impactos do plano de estabilização brasileiro (Plano Real) sobre a fragilidade financeira externa do país e discute as propostas de mudanças na política cambial com vistas à superação do quadro de vulnerabilidade externa. Para tanto, é desenvolvido um índice de fragilidade financeira externa, que é aplicado a uma série de dados relativos a variáveis do setor externo no período de 1992 a 1997. As evidências mostram que a fragilidade financeira externa no Brasil cresceu bastante durante os primeiros três anos e meio do Plano Real, em particular em 1996 e 1997. Com base nesta evidência, o texto questiona a eficácia da estratégia de reestruturação produtiva do governo para o setor industrial, baseada no tripé estabilização, abertura comercial e de capitais e apreciação cambial. Por fim, conclui-se que o raio de manobra para alteração da política cambial em vigor é bastante estreito, estando o governo prisioneiro da “armadilha do câmbio”, que ele mesmo criou

Conventional currency crises models, speculative attack and the reform of the international monetary system : a Fost-Keynesian approach

This paper develops a critical view of the conventional currency crises models from a Post Keynesian perspective. Besides, it also presents a Post Keynesian proposal to reform the international monetary system, based on Keynes’s ideas and Davidson’s works.Indisponível

Ocorrência e aspectos biológicos do psilídeo do sombreiro no Brasil

O sombreiro Clitoria fairchildiana (Howard) é uma planta amplamente distribuída no Brasil sendo muito utilizada em arborizações. Em abril de 2001 foi constatada a ocorrência do psilídeo Euphalerus clitoriae Burckhardt & Guajará neste hospedeiro na Região Metropolitana do Recife, PE. Este trabalho teve como objetivo registrar a ocorrência de E. clitoriae e seus inimigos naturais, e estudar alguns aspectos da biologia deste psilídeo. Foram realizadas coletas semanais de folhas de C. fairchildiana visando à contagem de ninfas de E. clitoriae e formas imaturas e adultos dos inimigos naturais. A população de E. clitoriae variou de 2 a 90 ninfas por folíolo. A percentagem de parasitismo de Aprostocetus sp. variou de 3 a 24%. A curva de freqüência da largura do pigídio dos insetos observados apresentou variação de 120 a 140; 200 a 240; 300 a 380; 460 a 580 e 720 a 820 mm para o primeiro, segundo, terceiro, quarto e quinto ínstares, respectivamente. Os ovos de E. clitoriae apresentaram 7,6 dias de incubação. A fase ninfal apresentou 5,7 dias para o primeiro ínstar, 4,5 dias para o segundo ínstar, 4,8 dias para o terceiro ínstar, 5,0 dias para o quarto ínstar e 6,1 dias para o quinto ínstar. O período de ovo-adulto foi 33,7 dias, a longevidade de fêmeas foi 8,6 dias e a fecundidade de 118 ovos/fêmea. A viabilidade total de formas imaturas foi de 74% e a razão sexual de 0,5.Clitoria fairchildiana (Howard) is a tree largely distributed in Brazil, used for urban arborization. In April 2001, the psyllid Euphalerus clitoriae Burckhardt & Guajará was reported on this plant in the metropolitan areas of Recife, PE, Brazil. This report records the occurrence of E. clitoriae and studies some of its biological aspects in this area. With this purpose, C. fairchildiana leaves were sampled weekly, and E. clitoriae nymphs as well as Aprostocetus sp. larvae and nymphs were collected and counted. The E. clitoriae population ranged from 2 to 90 nymphs per leaflet. The Aprostocetus sp. percentage of parasitism ranged from 3 to 24%. The frequency curve for pygidium width ranged from 120 to 140; 200 to 240; 300 to 380; 460 to 580, and 720 to 820 mm for the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth instars, respectively. The incubation period for E. clitoriae eggs lasted 7.6 days. The nymphal stage lasted 5.7; 4.5; 4.8; 5.0, and 6.1 days for the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth instars, respectively. Development time from egg to adult was 33.7 days. Female longevity 8.6 days, with a daily fecundity of 118 eggs. The total viability of the immature stage was 74%, and the sex ratio was 0.5

Paving the way for predictive diagnostics and personalized treatment of invasive aspergillosis

Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a life-threatening fungal disease commonly diagnosed among individuals with immunological deficits, namely hematological patients undergoing chemotherapy or allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Vaccines are not available, and despite the improved diagnosis and antifungal therapy, the treatment of IA is associated with a poor outcome. Importantly, the risk of infection and its clinical outcome vary significantly even among patients with similar predisposing clinical factors and microbiological exposure. Recent insights into antifungal immunity have further highlighted the complexity of host-fungus interactions and the multiple pathogen-sensing systems activated to control infection. How to decode this information into clinical practice remains however, a challenging issue in medical mycology. Here, we address recent advances in our understanding of the host-fungus interaction and discuss the application of this knowledge in potential strategies with the aim of moving toward personalized diagnostics and treatment (theranostics) in immunocompromised patients. Ultimately, the integration of individual traits into a clinically applicable process to predict the risk and progression of disease, and the efficacy of antifungal prophylaxis and therapy, holds the promise of a pioneering innovation benefiting patients at risk of IA.CC is supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal (SFRH/BPD/96176/2013

As Imagens Científicas como Estratégia para a Integração da História da Ciência no Ensino de Ciências

O presente trabalho aborda uma revisão de literatura realizada em periódicos brasileiros e internacionais compreendendo o período de 2010 a 2015. O objetivo desta pesquisa bibliográfica foi identificar se as imagens científicas têm sido utilizadas em propostas que integram a história da ciência ao ensino de ciências. Os 45 artigos selecionados foram analisados segundo a Análise Textual Discursiva (ATD), sendo os dados empíricos dessas pesquisas provenientes de vários instrumentos tais como questionários ou perguntas anexadas a materiais como textos, entrevistas, gravações e/ou notas de aulas, desenhos, entre outros. Nossa análise apresenta informações gerais sobre as estratégias didáticas utilizadas, com ênfase nos trabalhos que abordavam o uso de imagens e que correspondem a uma proposta de ampliação das estratégias didáticas descritas por McComas (2013). As pesquisas que descreveram a utilização das imagens científicas na sala de aula se mostraram eficientes para a contextualização da histórica da ciência; discussão da tríade ciência, tecnologia e sociedade e suas relações; do papel da experimentação e; das controvérsias científicas. Igualmente, os artigos que retratam o uso das imagens científicas no ensino fornecem subsídios metodológicos ao professor para abordar conteúdos científicos de modo diferenciado. Porém, para sua melhor efetivação no contexto escolar é necessário contornar alguns obstáculos, tais como a dificuldade dos alunos em interpretar imagens