A family of rotation numbers for discrete random dynamics on the circle

We revisit the problem of well-defining rotation numbers for discrete random dynamical systems on the circle. We show that, contrasting with deterministic systems, the topological (i.e. based on Poincar\'{e} lifts) approach does depend on the choice of lifts (e.g. continuously for nonatomic randomness). Furthermore, the winding orbit rotation number does not agree with the topological rotation number. Existence and conversion formulae between these distinct numbers are presented. Finally, we prove a sampling in time theorem which recover the rotation number of continuous Stratonovich stochastic dynamical systems on $S^1$ out of its time discretisation of the flow.Comment: 15 page

Multi-Output Gaussian Processes for Crowdsourced Traffic Data Imputation

Traffic speed data imputation is a fundamental challenge for data-driven transport analysis. In recent years, with the ubiquity of GPS-enabled devices and the widespread use of crowdsourcing alternatives for the collection of traffic data, transportation professionals increasingly look to such user-generated data for many analysis, planning, and decision support applications. However, due to the mechanics of the data collection process, crowdsourced traffic data such as probe-vehicle data is highly prone to missing observations, making accurate imputation crucial for the success of any application that makes use of that type of data. In this article, we propose the use of multi-output Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the complex spatial and temporal patterns in crowdsourced traffic data. While the Bayesian nonparametric formalism of GPs allows us to model observation uncertainty, the multi-output extension based on convolution processes effectively enables us to capture complex spatial dependencies between nearby road segments. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic speed data or "probe vehicle data" for several locations in Copenhagen, the proposed approach is empirically shown to significantly outperform popular state-of-the-art imputation methods.Comment: 10 pages, IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 201

A model for the Yield curve

The starting point is an interrogation about the non-broken character of the term structure of interest rates. Some arguments for that smooth character are presented here, all of which are based upon the assumption that market participants - arbitrageurs and speculators - always try to explore any misalignments discovered in the interest market. This led to the basic concept behind the model that the current short-term rate determines most of the value of the rate level for the subsequent period. A linear model describing that simple relationship is assumed and that constitutes the building block from where one can develop the mathematical equations necessary to work with different sets of market data. A number of different yield curves were modelled by adjustment to real market data using this basic model, all of them showing a very high quality of the fits when measured by the non-linear ratio R2. Nevertheless this fact still needs to be confirmed as the examples were drawn from non-independent markets and from a very short time window. The model can be improved by simple addition of a liquidity premium depend only upon the maturity of the rates. However, that improvement sophisticates tremendously the mathematical tractability of any real situation without any assurance that this added cost compensates for the increased quality of the fit. The model is designed around only 3 parameters that can all be interpreted in economic terms. Two of them, in particular, bring a significant improvement over the traditional views frequently extracted from the shape of the yield curve. Provided future tests confirm the high quality of the basic and the improved (with a liquidity premium) models, both are supportive of the expectation hypothesis (EH) and the liquidity premium hypothesis (LPH).

Stellar Equilibrium vs. Gravitational Collapse

The idea of gravitational collapse can be traced back to the first solution of Einstein’s equations, but in these early stages, compelling evidence to support this idea was lacking. Furthermore, there were many theoretical gaps underlying the conviction that a star could not contract beyond its critical radius. The philosophical views of the early 20th century, especially those of Sir Arthur S. Eddington, imposed equilibrium as an almost unquestionable condition on theoretical models describing stars. This paper is a historical and epistemological account of the theoretical defiance of this equilibrium hypothesis, with a novel reassessment of J.R. Oppenheimer’s work on astrophysics

Sustainable forest management of miombo woodlands in Niassa National Reserve, northern Mozambique: a multidisciplinary approach of fire resistance analysis.

Poster presented at XIII World Forestry Congress. Buenos Aires (Argentina). 18 - 23 Oct 2009