A reduced order model for turbulent flows in the urban environment using machine learning

To help create a comfortable and healthy indoor and outdoor environment in which to live, there is a need to understand turbulent air flows within the urban environment. To this end, building on a previously reported method [1], we develop a fast-running Non-Intrusive Reduced Order Model (NIROM) for predicting the turbulent air flows found within an urban environment. To resolve larger scale turbulent fluctuations, we employ a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model and solve the resulting computational model on unstructured meshes. The objective is to construct a rapid-running NIROM from these results that will have ‘similar’ dynamics to the original LES model. Based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and machine learning techniques, this Reduced Order Model (ROM) is six orders of magnitude faster than the high-fidelity LES model and we demonstrate how ‘similar’ it can be to the high-fidelity model by comparing statistical quantities such as the mean flows, Reynolds stresses and probability densities of the velocities. We also include validation of the high-fidelity model against data from wind tunnel experiments.This paper represents a key step towards the use of reduced order modelling for operational purposes with the tantalising possibility of it being used in place of Gaussian plume models, and the potential for greatly improved model fidelity and confidence

Improvements to water purification and sanitation infrastructure may reduce the diarrheal burden in a marginalized and flood prone population in remote Nicaragua

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The isolated northern region of Nicaragua has one of the highest rates of diarrheal disease in Central America. Political and environmental hardships faced by inhabitants of this region are contributing factors to this health inequity. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between water and latrine infrastructure and the prevalence of diarrhea in this region.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A population-based, cross-sectional survey of women of reproductive age was conducted in the Sahsa region of northern Nicaragua in July, 2009. Households were selected by two stage cluster sampling methodology. A questionnaire was administered in Spanish and Miskito with assessment of household and socioeconomic conditions, sanitation practices, and health care access. Diarrhea prevalence differences at the household level over a two week reporting period were estimated with a standardized instrument which included assessment of water treatment and latrine use and maintenance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were 189 women enrolled in the current study. The use of water purification methods, such as chlorine and filters, and latrine ownership were not associated with reduced prevalence of household diarrhea in the two week reporting period. Latrine overflow, however, was associated with an increased prevalence of diarrhea during the same two week period [adjusted prevalence difference and 95% CI: 0.19 (0.03, 0.36)].</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Simple, low cost interventions that improve water and latrine infrastructure may reduce the prevalence of diarrheal disease in the isolated regions of Nicaragua and Central America.</p

Using observational data to estimate an upper bound on the reduction in cancer mortality due to periodic screening

BACKGROUND: Because randomized cancer screening trials are very expensive, observational cancer screening studies can play an important role in the early phases of screening evaluation. Periodic screening evaluation (PSE) is a methodology for estimating the reduction in population cancer mortality from data on subjects who receive regularly scheduled screens. Although PSE does not require assumptions about natural history of cancer it requires other assumptions, particularly progressive detection – the assumption that once a cancer is detected by a screening test, it will always be detected by the screening test. METHODS: We formulate a simple version of PSE and show that it leads to an upper bound on screening efficacy if the progressive detection assumption does not hold (and any effect of birth cohort is minimal) To determine if the upper bound is reasonable, for three randomized screening trials, we compared PSE estimates based only on screened subjects with PSE estimates based on all subjects. RESULTS: In the three randomized screening trials, PSE estimates based on screened subjects gave fairly close results to PSE estimates based on all subjects. CONCLUSION: PSE has promise for obtaining an upper bound on the reduction in population cancer mortality rates based on observational screening data. If the upper bound estimate is found to be small and any birth cohort effects are likely minimal, then a definitive randomized trial would not be warranted

Validation of a brief telephone battery for neurocognitive assessment of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension

BACKGROUND: The effects of pulmonary arterial hypertension on brain function are not understood, despite patients' frequent complaints of cognitive difficulties. Using clinical instruments normally administered during standard in-person assessment of neurocognitive function in adults, we assembled a battery of tests designed for administration over the telephone. The purpose was to improve patient participation, facilitate repeated test administration, and reduce the cost of research on the neuropsychological consequences of acute and chronic cardiorespiratory diseases. We undertook this study to validate telephone administration of the tests. METHODS: 23 adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension underwent neurocognitive assessment using both standard in-person and telephone test administration, and the results of the two methods compared using interclass correlations. RESULTS: For most of the tests in the battery, scores from the telephone assessment correlated strongly with those obtained by in-person administration of the same tests. Interclass correlations between 0.5 and 0.8 were observed for tests that assessed attention, memory, concentration/working memory, reasoning, and language/crystallized intelligence (p ≤ 0.05 for each). Interclass correlations for the Hayling Sentence Completion test of executive function approached significance (p = 0.09). All telephone tests were completed within one hour. CONCLUSION: Administration of this neurocognitive test battery by telephone should facilitate assessment of neuropsychological deficits among patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension living across broad geographical areas, and may be useful for monitoring changes in neurocognitive function in response to PAH-specific therapy or disease progression

Global, local and focused geographic clustering for case-control data with residential histories

BACKGROUND: This paper introduces a new approach for evaluating clustering in case-control data that accounts for residential histories. Although many statistics have been proposed for assessing local, focused and global clustering in health outcomes, few, if any, exist for evaluating clusters when individuals are mobile. METHODS: Local, global and focused tests for residential histories are developed based on sets of matrices of nearest neighbor relationships that reflect the changing topology of cases and controls. Exposure traces are defined that account for the latency between exposure and disease manifestation, and that use exposure windows whose duration may vary. Several of the methods so derived are applied to evaluate clustering of residential histories in a case-control study of bladder cancer in south eastern Michigan. These data are still being collected and the analysis is conducted for demonstration purposes only. RESULTS: Statistically significant clustering of residential histories of cases was found but is likely due to delayed reporting of cases by one of the hospitals participating in the study. CONCLUSION: Data with residential histories are preferable when causative exposures and disease latencies occur on a long enough time span that human mobility matters. To analyze such data, methods are needed that take residential histories into account

A Novel Method to Adjust Efficacy Estimates for Uptake of Other Active Treatments in Long-Term Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND: When rates of uptake of other drugs differ between treatment arms in long-term trials, the true benefit or harm of the treatment may be underestimated. Methods to allow for such contamination have often been limited by failing to preserve the randomization comparisons. In the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study, patients were randomized to fenofibrate or placebo, but during the trial many started additional drugs, particularly statins, more so in the placebo group. The effects of fenofibrate estimated by intention-to-treat were likely to have been attenuated. We aimed to quantify this effect and to develop a method for use in other long-term trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied efficacies of statins and other cardiovascular drugs from meta-analyses of randomized trials to adjust the effect of fenofibrate in a penalized Cox model. We assumed that future cardiovascular disease events were reduced by an average of 24% by statins, and 20% by a first other major cardiovascular drug. We applied these estimates to each patient who took these drugs for the period they were on them. We also adjusted the analysis by the rate of discontinuing fenofibrate. Among 4,900 placebo patients, average statin use was 16% over five years. Among 4,895 assigned fenofibrate, statin use was 8% and nonuse of fenofibrate was 10%. In placebo patients, use of cardiovascular drugs was 1% to 3% higher. Before adjustment, fenofibrate was associated with an 11% reduction in coronary events (coronary heart disease death or myocardial infarction) (P = 0.16) and an 11% reduction in cardiovascular disease events (P = 0.04). After adjustment, the effects of fenofibrate on coronary events and cardiovascular disease events were 16% (P = 0.06) and 15% (P = 0.008), respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This novel application of a penalized Cox model for adjustment of a trial estimate of treatment efficacy incorporates evidence-based estimates for other therapies, preserves comparisons between the randomized groups, and is applicable to other long-term trials. In the FIELD study example, the effects of fenofibrate on the risks of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease events were underestimated by up to one-third in the original analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN64783481

A Preliminary Mixed-Method Investigation of Trust and Hidden Signals in Medical Consultations.

Background Several factors influence patients' trust, and trust influences the doctor-patient relationship. Recent literature has investigated the quality of the personal relationship and its dynamics by considering the role of communication and the elements that influence trust giving in the frame of general practitioner (GP) consultations. Objective We analysed certain aspects of the interaction between patients and GPs to understand trust formation and maintenance by focusing on communication channels. The impact of socio-demographic variables in trust relationships was also evaluated. Method A cross-sectional design using concurrent mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods was employed. One hundred adults were involved in a semi-structured interview composed of both qualitative and quantitative items for descriptive and exploratory purposes. The study was conducted in six community-based departments adjacent to primary care clinics in Trento, Italy. Results The findings revealed that patients trusted their GP to a high extent by relying on simple signals that were based on the quality of the one-to-one communication and on behavioural and relational patterns. Patients inferred the ability of their GP by adopting simple heuristics based mainly on the so-called social \u201chonest signals\u201d rather than on content-dependent features. Furthermore, socio-demographic variables affected trust: less literate and elderly people tended to trust more. Conclusions This study is unique in attempting to explore the role of simple signals in trust relationships within medical consultation: people shape trust and give meaning to their relationships through a powerful channel of communication that orbits not around words but around social relations. The findings have implications for both clinicians and researchers. For doctors, these results suggest a way of thinking about encounters with patients. For researchers, the findings underline the importance of analysing some new key factors around trust for future investigations in medical practice and education

Socioeconomic disadvantage in childhood as a predictor of excessive gestational weight gain and obesity in midlife adulthood

BACKGROUND: Lower childhood socioeconomic position is associated with greater risk of adult obesity among women, but not men. Pregnancy-related weight changes may contribute to this gender difference. The objectives of this study were to determine the associations between: 1. childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and midlife obesity; 2. excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) and midlife obesity; and 3. childhood socioeconomic disadvantage and excessive GWG, among a representative sample of childbearing women. METHODS: We constructed marginal structural models for seven measures of childhood socioeconomic position for 4780 parous women in the United States, using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979–2010) data. Institute of Medicine definitions were used for excessive GWG; body mass index ≥30 at age 40 defined midlife obesity. Analyses were separated by race/ethnicity. Additionally, we estimated controlled direct effects of childhood socioeconomic disadvantage on midlife obesity under a condition of never gaining excessively in pregnancy. RESULTS: Low parental education, but not other measures of childhood disadvantage, was associated with greater midlife obesity among non-black non-Hispanic women. Among black and Hispanic mothers, childhood socioeconomic disadvantage was not consistently associated with midlife obesity. Excessive GWG was associated with greater midlife obesity in all racial/ethnic groups. Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage was not statistically significantly associated with excessive GWG in any group. Controlled direct effects were not consistently weaker than total effects. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with adult obesity, but not with excessive gestational weight gain, and only for certain disadvantage measures among non-black non-Hispanic mothers. Prevention of excessive GWG may benefit all groups through reducing obesity, but excessive GWG does not appear to serve as a mediator between childhood socioeconomic position and adult obesity in women

Psychiatric assessment of suicide attempters in Japan: a pilot study at a critical emergency unit in an urban area

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence of suicide has increased markedly in Japan since 1998. As psychological autopsy is not generally accepted in Japan, surveys of suicide attempts, an established risk factor of suicide, are highly regarded. We have carried out this study to gain insight into the psychiatric aspects of those attempting suicide in Japan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three hundred and twenty consecutive cases of attempted suicide who were admitted to an urban emergency department were interviewed, with the focus on psychosocial background and DSM-IV diagnosis. Moreover, they were divided into two groups according to the method of attempted suicide in terms of lethality, and the two groups were compared.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ninety-five percent of patients received a psychiatric diagnosis: 81% of subjects met the criteria for an axis I disorder. The most frequent diagnosis was mood disorder. The mean age was higher and living alone more common in the high-lethality group. Middle-aged men tended to have a higher prevalence of mood disorders.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first large-scale study of cases of attempted suicide since the dramatic increase in suicides began in Japan. The identification and introduction of treatments for psychiatric disorders at emergency departments has been indicated to be important in suicide prevention.</p