Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?

Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock transmission and using "agnostic structural disturbances". We estimate multi-region models for Germany and Spain as countries with very distinct TB patterns since 1999. Results suggest that domestic drivers remain dominant when theory-based restrictions on shock transmission are relaxed, although the transmission of foreign shocks is strengthened

Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model

Abstract Following the global financial crisis, the Euro Area (EA) has experienced a persistent slump and notable trade balance adjustments, but with pronounced differences across EA Member States. We estimate a multi-country structural macroeconomic model to assess and compare the main drivers of GDP growth and trade balance adjustment across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We find that the pronounced post-crisis slump in Italy and Spain was mainly driven by positive saving shocks ('deleveraging') and by an increase in investment and intra-euro risk premia. Fiscal austerity in Spain and the productivity slowdown in Italy have been additional sizable contributors to the economic downturn. The results further suggest that euro depreciation, heightened intra-euro risk premia and subdued investment had a sizable impact on the trade balance reversals in Italy and Spain, which has been offset in France by a strong increase in imports and lower exports

Structural and functional differences in PHOX2B frameshift mutations underlie isolated or syndromic congenital central hypoventilation syndrome

Heterozygous mutations in the PHOX2B gene are causative of Congenital Central Hypoventilation Syndrome (CCHS), a neurocristopathy characterised by defective autonomic control of breathing due to the impaired differentiation of neural crest cells (NCCs). Among PHOX2B mutations, polyalanine (polyAla) expansions are almost exclusively associated with isolated CCHS, whereas frameshift variants, although less frequent, are often more severe than polyAla expansions and identified in syndromic CCHS. This paper provides a complete review of all the frameshift mutations identified in cases of isolated and syndromic CCHS reported in the literature as well as those identified by us and not yet published. These were considered in terms of both their structure, whether the underlying indels induced frameshifts of either 1 or 2 steps ("frame 2\u2033 and "frame 3\u2033 mutations respectively), and clinical associations. Furthermore, we evaluated the structural and functional effects of one "frame 3\u2033 mutation identified in a patient with isolated CCHS, and one "frame 2\u2033 mutation identified in a patient with syndromic CCHS, also affected with Hirschsprung's disease and neuroblastoma. The data thus obtained confirm that the type of translational frame affects the severity of the transcriptional dysfunction and the predisposition to isolated or syndromic CCHS

SAGGI SULL'APPRENDIMENTO, POLITICA MONETARIA E ASSET PRICES

In letteratura si assume generalmente che gli agenti siano dotati di perfetta razionalità e quindi siano in grado di anticipare l'evoluzione del sistema economico. Partendo dalla letteratura sull'apprendimento adattivo, si ipotizza che gli agenti si comportino come econometrici, aggiustando le proprie previsioni mano a mano che i dati diventano disponibili. Il primo capitolo analizza l'apprendimento dell'equilibrio da parte degli agenti in presenza di un meccanismo di trasmissione del cost channel. Supponendo che la Banca Centrale operi in regime discrezionale, si osserva che una politica monetaria che risponde all'aspettative garantisce la determinatezza dell'economia solo se la banca centrale dimostra una minor preferenza per la stabilizzazione dell'output. Tuttavia, l'area di determinatezza dell'equilibrio si allarga se la banca centrale stabilizza anche il tasso di interesse. La seconda parte della tesi si concentra invece sul ruolo della stabilità finanziaria nella conduzione della politica monetaria. Sei nei modelli standard di tipo Keynesiano rispondere agli asset prices sortisce degli effetti positivi solo se gli agenti stimano il modello corretto dell'economia, ecco che in presenza di mal specificazione o eterogeneità la banca centrale riesce a raggiungere la stabilità economica attraverso i normali canali. La conclusione si ribalta se il meccanismo di cost channel opera nell'economia.In the literature agents are endowed by full rationality and hence they are able to anticipate the evolution of the economy. On the findings of the adaptive learning literature, we assume that agents behave as econometricians updating their own forecasts by the available data. In the first essays we analyze the learnability of the equilibrium by agents when the cost channel mechanisms of monetary policy is operating. Under discretion the expectations-based interest rate rule leads the economy to determinacy of the rational expectations equilibrium (REE), only if the degree of preference for economic stability is sufficiently low. On the other hand, the determinacy of REE enlarges if the central bank stabilizes also the interest rate. The second part of the thesis concerns on the role of financial stability in the conducting of monetary policy. If in the standard New Keynesian model responding to asset prices shows benefits for the economy, the presence of misspecification and heterogeneity leads the economy to indeterminacy and E-instability. In an economy characterized by wealth effect and cost channel we show that the optimal discretionary monetary policy drive the economy toward the asymptotic convergence of the economy to the fundamental REE

Forecasting with Instabilities: an Application to DSGE Models with Financial Frictions

This paper examines whether the presence of parameter instabilities in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models affects their forecasting performance. We apply this analysis to medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions for the US economy. Over the forecast period 2001-2013, the models augmented with financial frictions lead to an improvement in forecasts for inflation and the short term interest rate, while for GDP growth rate the performance depends on the horizon/period. We interpret this finding taking into account parameters instabilities. Fluctuation test shows that models with financial frictions outperform in forecasting inflation but not the GDP growth rate.European Commission - Seventh Framework Programme (FP7

Forecasting with instabilities: An application to DSGE models with financial frictions

We assess the importance of parameter instabilities from a forecasting viewpoint in a set of medium-scale DSGE models with and without financial frictions using US real-time data. We find that, first, failing to update DSGE model parameter estimates with new data arrival deteriorates point forecasts due to the estimated parameters variation. And second, the presence of financial frictions helps to better address, city, state, ZIP code, province, country with country codes for all authors.JRC.B.1-Finance and Econom

The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance in an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area: the Role of Expectations

We assess the effectiveness of the forward guidance undertaken by European Central Bank using a standard medium-scale DSGE model à la Smets and Wouters (2007). Exploiting data on expectations from surveys, we show that incorporating expectations should be crucial in performance evaluation of models for the forward guidance. We conduct an exhaustive empirical exercise to compare the pseudo out-of-sample predictive performance of the estimated DSGE model with a Bayesian VAR and a DSGE-VAR models. DSGE model with expectations outperforms others for inflation; while for output and short term-interest rate the DSGE-VAR with expectations reports the best prediction

Domestic Versus Foreign Drivers Of Trade (Im)Balances: How Robust Is Evidence From Estimated DSGE Models

Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock transmission and using "agnostic structural disturbances". We estimate multi-region models for Germany and Spain as countries with very distinct TB patterns since 1999. Results suggest that domestic drivers remain dominant when theory-based restrictions on shock transmission are relaxed, although the transmission of foreign shocks is strengthened

Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models: JRC Working Paper in Economics and Finance N. 2020/5

Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock transmission and using "agnostic structural disturbances". We estimate multi-region models for Germany and Spain as countries with very distinct TB patterns since 1999. Results suggest that domestic drivers remain dominant when theory-based restrictions on shock transmission are relaxed, although the transmission of foreign shocks is strengthened.JRC.B.1-Finance and Econom

Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?

Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock transmission and using "agnostic structural disturbances". We estimate multi-region models for Germany and Spain as countries with very distinct TB patterns since 1999. Results suggest that domestic drivers remain dominant when theory-based restrictions on shock transmission are relaxed, although the transmission of foreign shocks is strengthened