Election Administration during Natural Disasters and Emergencies: Hurrican Sandy and the 2012 Election

The conduct of elections is constrained by a myriad of factors that vary greatly across the 3,000+ jurisdictions authorized to administered elections in the United States. Among these factors are anticipated and unanticipated natural and man-made emergencies. Weather is foremost among the anticipated and probabilistic factors that can influence the operation of an election. Rain and other hazardous weather (e.g., hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, et al) can deter voters from voting (Gomez et al 2007) and interrupt balloting on and before Election Day. For example, damage to roads and buildings can impede voters and poll workers from getting to and operating polling places on and before Election Day. Moreover, a loss of power can render direct electronic recording (DRE) voting machines unusable. Voters that evacuate their homes before and after a natural disaster are indisposed to vote on or even before Election Day at their assigned polling place

Officials can nudge public behavior by showing that they are responding to people's demands

A key aim of public policymaking is to change public behavior in one way or another. In new research which focuses on voting patterns in Colorado, Andrew Menger and Robert M. Stein tested a number of ways of encouraging people to return their mail-in ballots early. They find that only message which increased early voting was one which explained that ..

Asymptotic Exit Location Distributions in the Stochastic Exit Problem

Consider a two-dimensional continuous-time dynamical system, with an attracting fixed point $S$. If the deterministic dynamics are perturbed by white noise (random perturbations) of strength $\epsilon$, the system state will eventually leave the domain of attraction $\Omega$ of $S$. We analyse the case when, as $\epsilon\to0$, the exit location on the boundary $\partial\Omega$ is increasingly concentrated near a saddle point $H$ of the deterministic dynamics. We show that the asymptotic form of the exit location distribution on $\partial\Omega$ is generically non-Gaussian and asymmetric, and classify the possible limiting distributions. A key role is played by a parameter $\mu$, equal to the ratio $|\lambda_s(H)|/\lambda_u(H)$ of the stable and unstable eigenvalues of the linearized deterministic flow at $H$. If $\mu<1$ then the exit location distribution is generically asymptotic as $\epsilon\to0$ to a Weibull distribution with shape parameter $2/\mu$, on the $O(\epsilon^{\mu/2})$ length scale near $H$. If $\mu>1$ it is generically asymptotic to a distribution on the $O(\epsilon^{1/2})$ length scale, whose moments we compute. The asymmetry of the asymptotic exit location distribution is attributable to the generic presence of a `classically forbidden' region: a wedge-shaped subset of $\Omega$ with $H$ as vertex, which is reached from $S$, in the $\epsilon\to0$ limit, only via `bent' (non-smooth) fluctuational paths that first pass through the vicinity of $H$. We deduce from the presence of this forbidden region that the classical Eyring formula for the small-$\epsilon$ exponential asymptotics of the mean first exit time is generically inapplicable.Comment: This is a 72-page Postscript file, about 600K in length. Hardcopy requests to [email protected] or [email protected]

Absence of reflection as a function of the coupling constant

We consider solutions of the one-dimensional equation $-u'' +(Q+ \lambda V) u = 0$ where $Q: \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ is locally integrable, $V : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}$ is integrable with supp$(V) \subset [0,1]$, and $\lambda \in \mathbb{R}$ is a coupling constant. Given a family of solutions $\{u_{\lambda} \}_{\lambda \in \mathbb{R}}$ which satisfy $u_{\lambda}(x) = u_0(x)$ for all $x<0$, we prove that the zeros of $b(\lambda) := W[u_0, u_{\lambda}]$, the Wronskian of $u_0$ and $u_{\lambda}$, form a discrete set unless $V \equiv 0$. Setting $Q(x) := -E$, one sees that a particular consequence of this result may be stated as: if the fixed energy scattering experiment $-u'' + \lambda V u = Eu$ gives rise to a reflection coefficient which vanishes on a set of couplings with an accumulation point, then $V \equiv 0$.Comment: To appear in Journal of Mathematical Physic

Observational manifestations of solar magneto-convection -- center-to-limb variation

We present the first center-to-limb G-band images synthesized from high resolution simulations of solar magneto-convection. Towards the limb the simulations show "hilly" granulation with dark bands on the far side, bright granulation walls and striated faculae, similar to observations. At disk center G-band bright points are flanked by dark lanes. The increased brightness in magnetic elements is due to their lower density compared with the surrounding intergranular medium. One thus sees deeper layers where the temperature is higher. At a given geometric height, the magnetic elements are cooler than the surrounding medium. In the G-band, the contrast is further increased by the destruction of CH in the low density magnetic elements. The optical depth unity surface is very corrugated. Bright granules have their continuum optical depth unity 80 km above the mean surface, the magnetic elements 200-300 km below. The horizontal temperature gradient is especially large next to flux concentrations. When viewed at an angle, the deep magnetic elements optical surface is hidden by the granules and the bright points are no longer visible, except where the "magnetic valleys" are aligned with the line of sight. Towards the limb, the low density in the strong magnetic elements causes unit line-of-sight optical depth to occur deeper in the granule walls behind than for rays not going through magnetic elements and variations in the field strength produce a striated appearance in the bright granule walls.Comment: To appear in ApJL. 6 pages 4 figure

The Fiscal Impact of the U. S. Military Assistance Program, 1967-1976

The study of U.S. arms transfers and their impact on the fiscal decisions of aid recipients has been the subject of various interpretations and competing explanations. Absent in this literature has been a systematic testing of propositions derived from a general theory of aid impacts. A larger and somewhat related body of research has examined the political (Chaudhuri 1972; Hughes 1967; Gutteridge 1967) and general economic effects of domestic military spending (Deger and Smith 1983; Smith 1977, 1980; Benoit 1978; Kennedy 1974; Whynes 1979). These studies, however, have not examined the fiscal impact of foreign military assistance. To date only a few researchers have studied this issue in any systematic fashion (McGuire 1979, 1982; Wolf 1971). In this study we seek to fill this gap by applying grant economics theory (Pigou 1932; Oates 1972) to study the fiscal impact of U.S. military arms transfers on foreign nations. Drawing on the domestic aid literature (Oates 1972; Gramlich 1972), we identify a set of propositions concerning the expenditure decisions of domestic aid recipients, and test these propositions against the fiscal behavior of Military Assistance Program (MAP) recipients between 1967-1976. In addition to the substantive import of this question and its bearing on the implementation of U.S. foreign policy, this research provides a unique opportunity to test the applicability of domestic aid theory to the study of foreign aid policy

Escape tactics used by bluegills and fathead minnows to avoid predation by tiger muskellunge

To explain why esocids prefer cylindrical, soft-rayed prey over compressed, spiny-rayed prey, we quantified behavioral interaction between tiger muskellunge (F1 hybrid of male northern pike Esox lucius and female muskellunge E. masquinongy) and fathead minnows (Pimephales promelas) and bluegills (Lepomis macrochirus). Tiger muskellunge required four times as many strikes and longer pursuits to capture bluegills than fathead minnows. Tiger muskellunge attacked each prey species differently; fathead minnows were grasped at midbody and bluegills were attacked in the caudal area. Each prey species exhibited different escape tactics. Fathead minnows remained in open water and consistently schooled; bluegills dispersed throughout the tank and sought cover by moving to corners and edges. Due to their antipredatory behavior (dispersing, cover seeking, and remaining motionless) and morphology (deep body and spines), bluegills were less susceptible to capture by tiger muskellunge than were fathead minnows.Funding for this project was provided by the Federal Aid in Fish Restoration Act under Dingell-Johnson Project F-57-R

Predation by Tiger Muskellunge on Bluegill: Effects of Predator Experience, Vegetation, and Prey Density

Many pellet-reared tiger muskellunge (F1 hybrid of female muskellunge Esox masquinongy and male northern pike E. lucius) do not survive stocking in reservoirs dominated by bluegill Lepomis macrochirus prey. Poor survival may occur because few hybrids capture bluegills. In a previous study done in hatchery ponds, only 10% of naive hybrids (those never before exposed to live prey) captured bluegills during 15 days. In similar ponds, we tested the effects of predator experience (using hybrids previously exposed to bluegill prey), vegetative cover, and bluegill density on the number of hybrids capturing prey. Few experienced or naive hybrids captured bluegills at low prey density, regardless of the presence or absence of vegetation. When bluegill density was increased from 1 to 5 prey/m2 in ponds or to 40/m2 in aquaria, many hybrids captured bluegills. Our pond study suggests that most hybrids will not fare well when stocked in lakes where only bluegill forage is present.This research was supported in part by funds from the Federal Aid in Fish Restoration Act under Dingell-Johnson Project F-57-R