Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used

Abstract Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria

The organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos affects form deprivation myopia

PURPOSE. The effects of the anticholinesterase organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos (CPF) on the refractive development of the eye were examined. Form deprivation was used to induce eye growth to address the previously reported relationship between organophosphate pesticide use and the incidence of myopia. METHODS. Chickens, a well-established animal model for experimental myopia and organophosphate neurotoxicity, were dosed with chlorpyrifos (3 mg/kg per day, orally, from day 2 to day 9 after hatching) or corn oil vehicle (VEH) with or without monocular form deprivation (MFD) over the same period. The set of dependent measures included the refractive state of each eye measured using retinoscopy, axial dimensions determined with A-scan ultrasound, and intraocular pressure. RESULTS. Dosing with CPF yielded an inhibition of 35% butyrylcholinesterase in plasma and 45% acetylcholinesterase in brain. MFD resulted in a significant degree of myopia in form-deprived eyes resulting from significant lengthening of the vitreal chamber of the eye. CPF significantly reduced the effect of MFD, resulting in less myopic eyes (mean refraction: VEH-MFD = -16.2 ± 2.3 diopters; CPF-MFD = - 11.1 ± 1.8 diopters) with significantly shorter vitreal chambers. Nonoccluded eyes were, on average, slightly hyperopic. Treatment with CPF for 1 week in the absence of MFD led to no significant change in ocular dimensions or refraction relative to controls. CONCLUSIONS. The use of form deprivation as a challenge suggests that CPF treatment interferes with the visual regulation of eye growth

Improved Distances to Type Ia Supernovae with Multicolor Light Curve Shapes: MLCS2k2

We present an updated version of the Multicolor Light Curve Shape method to measure distances to type Ia supernovae (SN Ia), incorporating new procedures for K-correction and extinction corrections. We also develop a simple model to disentangle intrinsic color variations and reddening by dust, and expand the method to incorporate U-band light curves and to more easily accommodate prior constraints on any of the model parameters. We apply this method to 133 nearby SN Ia, including 95 objects in the Hubble flow (cz >= 2500 km/s), which give an intrinsic dispersion of less than 7% in distance. The Hubble flow sample, which is of critical importance to all cosmological uses of SN Ia, is the largest ever presented with homogeneous distances. We find the Hubble flow supernovae with Hd >= 7400 km/s yield an expansion rate that is 6.5 +/- 1.8% lower than the rate determined from supernovae within that distance, and this can have a large effect on measurements of the dark energy equation of state with SN Ia. Peculiar velocities of SN Ia host galaxies in the rest frame of the Local Group are consistent with the dipole measured in the Cosmic Microwave Background. Direct fits of SN Ia that are significantly reddened by dust in their host galaxies suggest their mean extinction law may be described by R_V ~= 2.7, but optical colors alone provide weak constraints on R_V.Comment: 66 pages, 22 figures; accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. Electronic data available at http://astro.berkeley.edu/~saurabh/mlcs2k2

Breast MRI in Community Practice: Equipment and Imaging Techniques at Facilities in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium

MRI is increasingly used for detection of breast carcinoma. Little is known about breast MRI techniques among community practice facilities. This study evaluated equipment and acquisition techniques used by community facilities across the U.S., including compliance with minimum standards by the American College of Radiology Imaging Network (ACRIN) 6667 Trial and the European Society of Breast Imaging (EUSOBI)

A comparative analysis of the Libyan national essential medicines list and the WHO model list of essential medicines

Aim and Objectives: To examine the concordance of the Libyan Pharmaceutical List of Essential Medicines (LPLEM) with the World Health Organization Model List of Essential Medicines 2009 (WMLEM 2009). Methods: The concordance between generic medicines listed in the WMLEM 2009 (standard reference list) and the LPLEM 2006 (comparator list) was evaluated. Results: The total number of Basic Essential Medicines (BEMs) listed on the WMLEM 2009 was 347. The total number of generic medicines listed on the LPLEM was 584. Although the LPLEM has more listed medicines, only 270 (77.6%) of BEMs from the WMLEM were listed as available. However, 25 of the 77 missing medicines were deemed to have appropriate alternatives. A total of 52 medicines from the WMLEM 2009 were therefore missing from the LPLEM. Discrepancies compared to the WMLEM 2009 were identified in 15 out of 29 therapeutic sections. The highest discrepancy rate from the WMLEM 2009 was in the anti-infective section (35 missing medicines). Missing BEMs were noted in many subclassifications of the anti-infective medicines section, but omissions were particularly prevalent in the antibacterial medicines subsection (11 missing medicines). Antituberculosis medications had the highest discrepancy rate for antibacterial BEMs with one-third of the single medicines recommended by the WHO in the WMLEM 2009 not listed on the LPLEM. Of the 314 additional medicines on the LPLEM, 18 were deemed to be irrational non-essential medicines. Conclusion: The LPLEM does not include several essential medicines recommended by the WHO in the WMLEM 2009. These discrepancies may have serious public health implications for management of some infectious diseases, particularly, tuberculosis and HIV

Pre-validation of the WHO organ dysfunction based criteria for identification of maternal near miss

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To evaluate the performance of the WHO criteria for defining maternal near miss and identifying deaths among cases of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) admitted for intensive care.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Between October 2002 and September 2007, 673 women with SMM were admitted, and among them 18 died. Variables used for the definition of maternal near miss according to WHO criteria and for the SOFA score were retrospectively evaluated. The identification of at least one of the WHO criteria in women who did not die defined the case as a near miss. Organ failure was evaluated through the maximum SOFA score above 2 for each one of the six components of the score, being considered the gold standard for the diagnosis of maternal near miss. The aggregated score (Total Maximum SOFA score) was calculated using the worst result of the maximum SOFA score. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of these WHO criteria for predicting maternal death and also for identifying cases of organ failure were estimated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The WHO criteria identified 194 cases of maternal near miss and all the 18 deaths. The most prevalent criteria among cases of maternal deaths were the use of vasoactive drug and the use of mechanical ventilation (≥1 h). For the prediction of maternal deaths, sensitivity was 100% and specificity 70.4%. These criteria identified 119 of the 120 cases of organ failure by the maximum SOFA score (Sensitivity 99.2%) among 194 case of maternal near miss (61.34%). There was disagreement in 76 cases, one organ failure without any WHO criteria and 75 cases with no failure but with WHO criteria. The Total Maximum SOFA score had a good performance (area under the curve of 0.897) for prediction of cases of maternal near miss according to the WHO criteria.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The WHO criteria for maternal near miss showed to be able to identify all cases of death and almost all cases of organ failure. Therefore they allow evaluation of the severity of the complication and consequently enable clinicians to build a plan of care or to provide an early transfer for appropriate reference centers.</p

Induction of Asthma and the Environment: What We Know and Need to Know

The prevalence of asthma has increased dramatically over the last 25 years in the United States and in other nations as a result of ill-defined changes in living conditions in modern society. On 18 and 19 October 2004 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences sponsored the workshop “Environmental Influences on the Induction and Incidence of Asthma” to review current scientific evidence with respect to factors that may contribute to the induction of asthma. Participants addressed two broad questions: a) What does the science suggest that regulatory and public health agencies could do now to reduce the incidence of asthma? and b) What research is needed to improve our understanding of the factors that contribute to the induction of asthma and our ability to manage this problem? In this article (one of four articles resulting from the workshop), we briefly characterize asthma and its public health and economic impacts, and intervention strategies that have been successfully used to prevent induction of asthma in the workplace. We conclude with the findings of seven working groups that focus on ambient air, indoor pollutants (biologics), occupational exposures, early life stages, older adults, intrinsic susceptibility, and lifestyle. These groups found strong scientific support for public health efforts to limit in utero and postnatal exposure to cigarette smoke. However, with respect to other potential types of interventions, participants noted many scientific questions, which are summarized in this article. Research to address these questions could have a significant public health and economic impact that would be well worth the investment