The Irish Border as a Customs Frontier after Brexit. CEPS Commentary, 11 July 2017

When the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, the status of its land border with the Republic of Ireland will inevitably change. The steady growth of trade and networks across this contested border over the past two decades have been largely attributable to their common EU membership and the peace process they have supported in Northern Ireland. Even aside from political sensitivities, any disruption to this integration will have an economic effect that Northern Ireland and the Irish border region can ill afford. As such, the European Council, European Commission and the UK government have repeatedly expressed a desire to avoid the return of a ‘hard border’ across the island of Ireland. Yet the practicalities of retaining such an open border after Brexit are highly complex, particularly as it looks set to become a customs border once again

Ariel - Volume 9 Number 4

Executive Editor Emily Wofford Business Manager Fredric Jay Matlin University News John Patrick Welch World News George Robert Coar Editorials Editor Steve Levine Features Mark Rubin Brad Feldstein Sports Editor EIi Saleeby Circulation Victor Onufreiczuk Lee Wugofski Graphics and Art Steve Hulkower Commons Editor Brenda Peterso

Effects of ingestion of a commercially available thermogenic dietary supplement on resting energy expenditure, mood state and cardiovascular measures

Background Increasing metabolism is a primary focus of many commercially available dietary supplements marketed to support weight management. Caffeine (e.g. anhydrous and herbal) and green tea are key ingredients in such products, augmenting resting energy expenditure (REE) and improving reported mood states (alertness, fatigue, focus, etc.). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of a thermogenic dietary supplement (DBX) on REE, respiratory exchange ratio (RER), reported measures of alertness, focus, energy, concentration, fatigue, and hunger, as well as the general safety of the product based on electrocardiogram (ECG) and hemodynamic responses in habitual caffeine consumers.MethodsSix male and six female subjects (mean ± SD; 22.50 ± 3.22 years; 76.94 ± 14.78 kg; 22.7 ± 9.5% body fat), physically active (≥12 months), and moderate habitual caffeine consumers (<200 mg/day) received either two capsules of DBX containing 340 mg of total caffeine plus green tea extract, yerba mate extract, carnitine tartrate and other active ingredients or a placebo (PLC) in a double-blinded, crossover design. Heart rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), REE, RER and perceived mood states were measured at baseline and then hourly for four hours after ingesting either treatment. Results Resting energy expenditure was significantly increased at all four time points and significant increases were determined for perceived alertness (p = 0.026) and focus (p = 0.05) at hour 1 and for energy at 1 and 2 hours after treatment for the DBX group (p = 0.008 and p = 0.017, respectively). Additionally, perceived fatigue was decreased at the hour 1 assessment (p = 0.010). No significant differences were seen between DBX and placebo for hunger, anxiety, HR, BP, ECG patterns or RER. Conclusions The results of this investigation support that the proprietary blend of this thermogenic aid is capable of increasing REE for four hours post-ingestion while supporting increased focus, alertness, and energy as well as decreasing fatigue without promoting anxiety or causing significant changes in HR, BP, or ECG measurements in habitual caffeine consumers

Investigating the contributions of circadian pathway and insomnia risk genes to autism and sleep disturbances

Sleep disturbance is prevalent in youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). Researchers have posited that circadian dysfunction may contribute to sleep problems or exacerbate ASD symptomatology. However, there is limited genetic evidence of this. It is also unclear how insomnia risk genes identified through GWAS in general populations are related to ASD and common sleep problems like insomnia traits in ASD. We investigated the contribution of copy number variants (CNVs) encompassing circadian pathway genes and insomnia risk genes to ASD risk as well as sleep disturbances in children with ASD. We studied 5860 ASD probands and 2092 unaffected siblings from the Simons Simplex Collection (SSC) and MSSNG database, as well as 7509 individuals from two unselected populations (IMAGEN and Generation Scotland). Sleep duration and insomnia symptoms were parent reported for SSC probands. We identified 335 and 616 rare CNVs encompassing circadian and insomnia risk genes respectively. Deletions and duplications with circadian genes were overrepresented in ASD probands compared to siblings and unselected controls. For insomnia-risk genes, deletions (not duplications) were associated with ASD in both cohorts. Results remained significant after adjusting for cognitive ability. CNVs containing circadian pathway and insomnia risk genes showed a stronger association with ASD, compared to CNVs containing other genes. Circadian genes did not influence sleep duration or insomnia traits in ASD. Insomnia risk genes intolerant to haploinsufficiency increased risk for insomnia when duplicated. CNVs encompassing circadian and insomnia risk genes increase ASD liability with little to no observable impacts on sleep disturbances

The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

Adherence to physiotherapy clinical guideline acute ankle injury and determinants of adherence: a cohort study

Background. Clinical guidelines are considered important instruments to improve quality in health care. In physiotherapy, insight in adherence to guidelines is limited. Knowledge of adherence is important to identify barriers and to enhance implementation. Purpose of this study is to investigate the ability to adherence to recommendations of the guideline Acute ankle injury, and to identify patient characteristics that determine adherence to the guideline. Methods. Twenty-two physiotherapists collected data of 174 patients in a prospective cohort study, in which the course of treatment was systematically registered. Indicators were used to investigate adherence to recommendations. Patient characteristics were used to identify prognostic factors that may determine adherence to the guideline. Correlation between patient characteristics and adherence to outcome-indicators (treatment sessions, functioning of patient, accomplished goals) was calculated using univariate logistic regression. To calculate explained variance of combined patient characteristics, multivariate analysis was performed. Results. Adherence to individual recommendations varied from 71% to 100%. In 99 patients (57%) the physiotherapists showed adherence to all indicators. Adherence to preset maximum of six treatment sessions for patients with severe ankle injury was 81% (132 patients). The odds to receive more than six sessions were statistically significant for three patient characteristics: females (OR:3.89; 95%CI: 1.41-10.72), recurrent sprain (OR: 6.90; 95%CI: 2.34 - 20.37), co-morbidity (OR: 25.92; 95% CI: 6.79 - 98.93). All factors together explained 40% of the variance. Inclusion of physiotherapist characteristics in the regression model showed that work-experience reduced the odds to receive more than six sessions (OR: 0.2; 95%CI: 0.06 - 0.77), and increased explained variance to 45%. Conclusion. Adherence to the clinical guideline Acute ankle sprain showed that the guideline is applicable in daily practice. Adherence to the guideline, even in a group of physiotherapists familiar with the guideline, showed possibilities for improvement. The necessity to exceed the expected number of treatment sessions may be explained by co-morbidity and recurrent sprains. It is not clear why female patients were treated with more sessions. Experience of the physiotherapist reduced the number of treatment sessions. Quality indicators may be used for audit and feedback as part of the implementation strategy