Meteorological forecasts and the pricing of weather derivatives

In usual pricing approaches for weather derivatives, forward-looking information such as meteorological weather forecasts is not considered. Thus, important knowledge used by market participants is ignored in theory. By extending a standard model for the daily temperature, this paper allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of weather derivative pricing and is able to estimate the information gain compared to a benchmark model without meteorological forecasts. This approach is applied for temperature futures referring to New York, Minneapolis and Cincinnati with forecast data 13 days in advance. Despite this relatively short forecast horizon, the models using meteorological forecasts outperform the classical approach and more accurately forecast the market prices of the temperature futures traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Moreover, a concentration on the last two months or on days with actual trading improves the results.Weather forecasting, weather risk, price forecasting, nancial markets, temperature futures, CME

GIPP: Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam

The Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam (GIPP) consists of field instruments, sensors and equipment for temporary seismological studies (both controlled source and earthquake seismology) as well as for magnetotelluric (electromagnetic) experiments. These instruments are mainly mobile digital recorders, broadband seis­mometers and short period sensors, and they are used to reveal the subsurface structure and to investigate earth­quakes. Sensors for magnetotellurics include induction coil and fluxgate magnetometers and non-polarizing silver / silver-chloride electrodes. It is operated by the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. The instru­ment facility is open to all academic applicants, both national and international. Instrument applications are evalu­ated and ranked by an external steering board. Currently, for seismological applications >850 geophysical recorders, >170 broadband seis­mo­meters and >1300 short period geophones are available (among others). Available for magnetotelluric experiments are > 50 real-time data-loggers, >150 induction coils, and >500 electrodes. User guidelines and data policy are in force and data archives are provided (standard exchange formats)

Die Abbildung von Bewegungsbahnen in Deformationszonen der Erde mit elektrischen Methoden

Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit werden voneinander unabhängige Experimente zur Untersuchung der elektrischen Leitfähigkeit im Untergrund miteinander verknüpft, mit dem Ziel, das Potenzial der Methode Magnetotellurik für das Abbilden aktiver und fossiler tektonischer Systeme aufzuzeigen. Die Magnetotellurik hat sich in den letzten zehn bis fünfzehn Jahren zunehmend zu einem zuverlässigen und aussagekräftigen Tiefensondierungsverfahren entwickelt. Dieser positive Entwicklungsprozess wird auch durch meine Forschungsergebnisse dokumentiert, die in verschiedenen Projekten während meiner Zeit am GeoForschungsZentrum entstanden sind. Eine Übersicht über die verwendeten Arbeiten befindet sich in Tabelle 1.1. Große geophysikalische Feldexperimente, wie die hier beschriebenen Magnetotellurikprojekte, lassen sich nur im Team durchführen. Im akademischen Bereich bedeutet dies die Integration von Studenten und Doktoranden bei den Feldmessungen und der anschließenden Bearbeitung der Daten. Entsprechend gehen einige der in Tabelle 1.1 aufgeführten Arbeiten auf Diplomarbeiten oder Promotionsschriften zurück, die von mir mitbetreut wurden. Bei anschließender Veröffentlichung der Arbeiten habe ich als Co-Autor mitgewirkt. Die beiliegenden Veröffentlichungen enthalten eine Einführung in die Methode der Magnetotellurik und gegebenenfalls die Beschreibung neu entwickelter Methoden. Eine allgemeine Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen der Magnetotellurik findet man z.B. in (Kaufman & Keller, 1981; Nabighian, 1987; Weaver, 1994). Am Ende der Arbeit befindet sich ein Glossar, in dem einige Begriffe und Abkürzungen erklärt werden.thesi

Entwicklung einer Kalibriereinrichtung für Induktionsspulenmagnetometer (search coils) am Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam

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Intelligent Diagnostics for Aircraft Hydraulic Equipment

In aviation industry, unscheduled maintenance costs may vary in a large range depending on several factors, such as specific aircraft system, operational environment, aircraft usage and maintenance policy. These costs will become more noteworthy in the next decade, due to the positive growing of worldwide fleet and the introduction of more technologically advanced aircraft. New implemented technologies will bring new challenges in the Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) companies, both because of the rising number of new technologies and high volume of well-established devices, such as Electro-Hydraulic Servo Actuators for primary flight control. Failures in aircraft hydraulic systems deeply influence the overall failure rate and so the relative maintenance costs. For this reason, overhaul procedures for these components still represents a profitable market share for all MRO stakeholders. Innovative solutions able to facilitate maintenance operations can lead to large cost savings. This paper proposes new methodologies and features of the Intelligent Diagnostic system which is being developed in partnership with Lufthansa Technik (LHT). The implementation of this innovative procedure is built on a set of failure detection algorithms, based on Machine Learning techniques. This development requires first to bring together the results from different parallel research activities: 1. Identification of critical components from historical data; 2. Designing and testing automatic and adaptable procedure for first faults detection; 3. High-fidelity mathematical modeling of considered test units, for deeper physics analysis of possible failures; 4. Implementation of Machine Learning reasoner, able to process experimental and simulated data

Virtual deep brain stimulation: Multiscale co-simulation of a spiking basal ganglia model and a whole-brain mean-field model with The Virtual Brain

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has been successfully applied in various neurodegenerative diseases as an effective symptomatic treatment. However, its mechanisms of action within the brain network are still poorly understood. Many virtual DBS models analyze a subnetwork around the basal ganglia and its dynamics as a spiking network with their details validated by experimental data. However, connectomic evidence shows widespread effects of DBS affecting many different cortical and subcortical areas. From a clinical perspective, various effects of DBS besides the motoric impact have been demonstrated. The neuroinformatics platform The Virtual Brain (TVB) offers a modeling framework allowing us to virtually perform stimulation, including DBS, and forecast the outcome from a dynamic systems perspective prior to invasive surgery with DBS lead placement. For an accurate prediction of the effects of DBS, we implement a detailed spiking model of the basal ganglia, which we combine with TVB via our previously developed co-simulation environment. This multiscale co-simulation approach builds on the extensive previous literature of spiking models of the basal ganglia while simultaneously offering a whole-brain perspective on widespread effects of the stimulation going beyond the motor circuit. In the first demonstration of our model, we show that virtual DBS can move the firing rates of a Parkinson's disease patient's thalamus - basal ganglia network towards the healthy regime while, at the same time, altering the activity in distributed cortical regions with a pronounced effect in frontal regions. Thus, we provide proof of concept for virtual DBS in a co-simulation environment with TVB. The developed modeling approach has the potential to optimize DBS lead placement and configuration and forecast the success of DBS treatment for individual patients

K-band spectroscopy of pre-cataclysmic variables

Aims. There exists now substantial evidence for abundance anomalies in a number of cataclysmic variables (CVs), indicating that the photosphere of the secondary star incorporates thermonuclear processed material. However, the spectral energy distribution in CVs is usually dominated by the radiation produced by the accretion process, severely hindering an investigation of the stellar components. On the other hand, depending on how the secondary star has acquired such material, the above mentioned abundance anomalies could also be present in pre-CVs, i.e. detached white/red dwarf binaries that will eventually evolve into CVs, but have not yet started mass transfer, and therefore allow for an unobstructed view on the secondary star at infrared wavelengths. Methods. We have taken K-band spectroscopy of a sample of 13 pre-CVs in order to examine them for anomalous chemical abundances. In particular, we study the strength of the 12CO and 13CO absorption bands that have been found diminished and enhanced, respectively, in similar studies of CVs. Results. All our systems show CO abundances that are within the range observed for single stars. The weakest 12CO bands with respect to the spectral type are found in the pre-CV BPM 71214, although on a much smaller scale than observed in CVs. Furthermore there is no evidence for enhanced 13CO. Taking into account that our sample is subject to the present observational bias that favours the discovery of young pre-CVs with secondary stars of late spectral types, we can conclude the following: 1) our study provides observational proof that the CO anomalies discovered in certain CVs are not due to any material acquired during the common envelope phase, and 2) if the CO anomalies in certain CVs are not due to accretion of processed material during nova outburst, then the progenitors of these CVs are of a significantly different type than the currently known sample of pre-CVs

Does the Intra-Arctic Modification of Long-Range Transported Aerosol Affect the Local Radiative Budget? (A Case Study)

The impact of aerosol spatio-temporal variability on the Arctic radiative budget is not fully constrained. This case study focuses on the intra-Arctic modification of long-range transported aerosol and its direct aerosol radiative effect (ARE). Different types of air-borne and ground-based remote sensing observations (from Lidar and sun-photometer) revealed a high tropospheric aerosol transport episode over two parts of the European Arctic in April 2018. By incorporating the derived aerosol optical and microphysical properties into a radiative transfer model, we assessed the ARE over the two locations. Our study displayed that even in neighboring Arctic upper tropospheric levels, aged aerosol was transformed due to the interplay of removal processes (nucleation scavenging and dry deposition) and alteration of the aerosol source regions (northeast Asia and north Europe). Along the intra-Arctic transport, the coarse aerosol mode was depleted and the visible wavelength Lidar ratio (LR) increased significantly (from 15 to 64–82 sr). However, the aerosol modifications were not reflected on the ARE. More specifically, the short-wave (SW) atmospheric column ARE amounted to +4.4 - +4.9 W m−2 over the ice-covered Fram Strait and +4.5 W m−2 over the snow-covered Ny-Ålesund. Over both locations, top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming was accompanied by surface cooling. These similarities can be attributed to the predominant accumulation mode, which drives the SW radiative budget, as well as to the similar layer altitude, solar geometry, and surface albedo conditions over both locations. However, in the context of retreating sea ice, the ARE may change even along individual transport episodes due to the ice albedo feedback