Effets des erreurs dans les coefficients structuraux d’un modèle intersectoriel « rectangulaire ». Une approche de type Monte-Carlo

The most simple rectangular input-output models use two rectangular matrices: R a market coefficient matrix, A* a production coefficient matrix. A given exogenous demand Xo determines the sectorial activity levels X* = [I — RA*]-1Xo. We assume that A* is random with expectation A. We study the distribution of the "error" X* — X with X = [I — RA]-1Xo.(1) For the statistically independent elements of A*, we analytically prove that X < EX*.(2) In the more realistic case of statistically dependent elements of A*.(a) One submatrix of A* with T non zero elements is chosen. The probabilistic model which generates the T coefficients is as follows: a* = (1 — μ)a + μ(S/n) b* où a* is the vector of the T random elements, a is the expectation of a* whose components are observed values of a real input-output model, S is the sum of components of a, μ is a parameter between zero and one, b* is a multinomial random vector with T components and parameters n, number of drawings during an experiment, and a/S, the corresponding probabilities.We control the variability of a* through μ and n. For a given experiment, we get a realisation of A* and we compute X*. K independent experiments allow us to estimate the expectation and the variance-covariance matrix of X*, simultaneous confidence intervals for the expectation of the components of X*, and also a few global measures of errors on X*.The Canadian model for 1961 (16 productive sectors, 40 commodities), is tested with that model.The main result is: the relative errors, measured according to the variation coefficients, are greatly reduced when we pass from the "errors" on a* to the corresponding "errors" on X*.(b) The same random model is also simultaneously applied to 2 or 3 sub-matrices of A*

Tendances récentes de la négociation collective dans l'industrie du papier au Québec

Cet article examine les développements récents de la négociation collective et de l'organisation du travail dans l'industrie québécoise du papier. L'analyse des négociations menées ces dernières années par les syndicats du papier affiliés à la CSN révèle le caractère central des stratégies de flexibilisation du travail chez les employeurs, et de protection de l'emploi du côté syndical. La flexibilité fonctionnelle constitue l'aspect essentiel des changements en cours dans cette industrie depuis la fin des années 1980, les employeurs cherchant à améliorer l'efficacité productive par une rationalisation des tâches et une réduction des emplois. Dans certaines usines, la réorganisation du travail a suscité un renouveau de l'action syndicale à travers l'implication des salariés et de leur syndicat dans la gestion de l'entreprise.The paper industry plays a leading role in the Canadian economy, both because of the number of persons it employs and the value of exports it generates. This industry is often the source of the only major economic activity in small remote communities, particularly in Quebec. While it has maintained its leading role in the Canadian economy, the paper industry faced severe financial difficulties in the 1980's due to an accelerated rate of technological change, more restrictive environmental regulations and increased international competition. These changes have influenced industrial relations policies and practices in the industry. Many recent agreements introducing significant changes in the traditional organization of work have been concluded by unions affiliated with the Federation of Pulp and Paper Workers (FTPF-CSN) representing about one third of the unionized employees in the industry in Quebec. In most cases, the agreements were negotiated under difficult conditions due to the economic and financial crisis affecting major employers in the industry. Those agreements involved substantial modifications in work rules and important reductions in the work forces of several mills. These latter were achieved through early retirements and attrition.An analysis of recent collective negotiations conducted by unions affiliated with the CNTU in the Quebec paper industry reveals the importance of job flexibility for employers and of job security for unions. Functional flexibility associated with work reorganization has been the focus of negotiations concluded in this industry since the mid-1980's. Employers were looking for a means of improving the efficiency of production through job reductions and the rationalization of work practices. Current changes in work organization have directly affected both the nature and content of tasks performed by workers as well as the traditional role of unions. In a few cases, the reorganization induced a renewal of collective action through the involvement of workers and their union representatives in plant management.Craft workers were the first to be affected by this reorganization that was later extended to production employees. However, these changes did not lead to a deskilling of craft workers since the transfer of marginal maintenance tasks to production operators did not affect core tasks in the crafts. The acceptance by unions of flexibility in return for early retirement plans, training programs and protection against technological change, reflects a readiness on their part to tie work effort to job security. This compromise is considered by unions to be a more acceptable solution to current economic problems than are salary reductions or reduced job security

L'industrialisation des mers et des océans : vers la privatisation d'un Commun ? Regards croisés Canada – Europe

International audienceCommunication portant sur l'industrialisation des mers et des océans comme nouvelle forme d'expansion du capitalisme dans le cadre du Colloque international / Congrès Etudes Canadiennes « Regards croisés : Canada - Europe

Un modèle suédois pour la résolution de la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe

Une double crise bancaire et souveraine dans plusieurs pays de la zone euro appelle à chercher des solutions innovantes et à revisiter des solutions ayant déjà fait preuve. L’expérience suédoise de la résolution d’une crise immobilière et bancaire dans les années 1990, qui a engendré un quasi doublement de la dette publique, s’inscrit dans la deuxième catégorie et peut se révéler fort instructive pour inspirer les décideurs politiques à trouver leurs propres solutions pour les crises actuelles au sein de la zone euro

Un modèle suédois pour la résolution de la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe

Une double crise bancaire et souveraine dans plusieurs pays de la zone euro appelle à chercher des solutions innovantes et à revisiter des solutions ayant déjà fait preuve. L’expérience suédoise de la résolution d’une crise immobilière et bancaire dans les années 1990, qui a engendré un quasi doublement de la dette publique, s’inscrit dans la deuxième catégorie et peut se révéler fort instructive pour inspirer les décideurs politiques à trouver leurs propres solutions pour les crises actuelles au sein de la zone euro

Class dynamics of development: a methodological note

This article argues that class relations are constitutive of developmental processes and central to understanding inequality within and between countries. In doing so it illustrates and explains the diversity of the actually existing forms of class relations, and the ways in which they interplay with other social relations such as gender and ethnicity. This is part of a wider project to re- vitalise class analysis in the study of development problems and experiences

Identification of a Sudden Cardiac Death Susceptibility Locus at 2q24.2 through Genome-Wide Association in European Ancestry Individuals

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to be one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide, with an annual incidence estimated at 250,000–300,000 in the United States and with the vast majority occurring in the setting of coronary disease. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis in 1,283 SCD cases and >20,000 control individuals of European ancestry from 5 studies, with follow-up genotyping in up to 3,119 SCD cases and 11,146 controls from 11 European ancestry studies, and identify the BAZ2B locus as associated with SCD (P = 1.8×10−10). The risk allele, while ancestral, has a frequency of ∼1.4%, suggesting strong negative selection and increases risk for SCD by 1.92–fold per allele (95% CI 1.57–2.34). We also tested the role of 49 SNPs previously implicated in modulating electrocardiographic traits (QRS, QT, and RR intervals). Consistent with epidemiological studies showing increased risk of SCD with prolonged QRS/QT intervals, the interval-prolonging alleles are in aggregate associated with increased risk for SCD (P = 0.006)