Session C1: Assessing Longitudinal Connectivity Affected by Cross-Sectional Barriers in a Riverine Bidirectional Network

Abstract: Disruption of longitudinal connectivity is a main problem in most of the world rivers. Spain, as a country with one of highest rates of cross-sectional obstacles per river, needs a strategy to restore longitudinal connectivity in riverscapes. Graph theory based approaches have proven as a suitable tool to measure the connectivity in the landscape. Unlike terrestrial habitats, where it has been profusely used, riverine systems still remain scarcely studied under this focus. There is a need to adapt the currently available knowledge on terrestrial habitat connectivity assessment to the management of river networks. In our study the broadly used Probability of Connectivity Index has been used to assess the global connectivity loss due to artificial obstacles (dams and weirs) in two medium sized river basins networks in Central Spain (Cega and Pirón). However, unlike previous studies, this time both differential downstream and upstream passability (directional connectivity) has been accounted through a purposefully adapted version of the Conefor software package. Passability has been quantified for every obstacle by means of an index that takes into account the requirements of every fish species in the community. This procedure ranks all the obstacles in the river network according to their individual contribution to the global loss of connectivity (upstream and downstream). It is therefore a tool that provides river basin management plans (RBMP) knowledge on the expected global benefits of the removal of each obstacle

Using fuzzy cognitive maps for predicting river management responses: A case study of the Esla River basin, Spain

The planning and management of river ecosystems affects a variety of social groups (i.e., managers, stakeholders, professionals and users) who have different interests about water uses. To avoid conflicts and reach an environmentally sustainable management, various methods have been devised to enable the participation of these actors. Mathematical modelling of river systems is highly recommended to forecast, but we do not always have enough information to do it. In these cases, the soft and meta-models can be valid alternatives to simulate these complex systems. The Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are presented as a tool that facilitates the modelling of ecological systems, functions and services. FCM networking concepts are intertwined through causal relationships. The FCM concept spatial arrangement and the use of fuzzy logic facilitate the integration of different expert opinions. In our study, from a panel of seven experts from representatives of different social sectors, an aggregated FCM was obtained. The most central concept in the aggregated map was cross barriers, dams and weirs. Using our FCM expert model, we performed a number of simulations from different possible scenarios, such as the continuous degradation of natural conditions and the improvement of river natural conditions. A regular increment in the natural conditions generates a substantial enhance in variables as natural water flow and sediment transport. Conversely, the increment in human activities as agro-forestry production addresses to a deterioration of river banks among other variables. In the Esla River, the FCM indicators showed an ecosystem that was greatly influenced by human activity, especially by the presence of barriers, in which the economic variables presented high network influence even though their centrality indices were relatively low. Meanwhile, the essential elements for the proper functioning of this ecosystem, as a natural flow regime, showed very low values that were visibly affected by anthropogenic variables. FCM methodology enabled us not only to understand the perception of current fluvial ecosystems but also to generate plausible management scenarios based on expert knowledge in this field

Utilización de Mapas de Conocimiento Difuso (MCD) en la asignación de prioridades de la restauración fluvial: Aplicación al río Esla.

La gestión de los ecosistemas fluviales atañe a diferentes grupos de interés (i.e., gestores, profesionales, académicos y usuarios) que tienen concepciones y objetivos diferentes en relación al mismo. Diversos procedimientos se han ideado para permitir la participación de estos actores en la planificación hidrológica; si bien los procedimientos con puesta en común de intereses y responsabilidad compartida en la gestión se muestran más sostenibles ecológica y temporalmente. La modelización matemático-física de los sistemas fluviales es muy aconsejable en el planeamiento para poder plantear escenarios y predecir soluciones de consenso, pero no siempre se tiene información suficientemente para realizarla. En estos casos, los modelos semánticos o meta-modelos pueden ser alternativas válidas para simular estos sistemas complejos multi-criterio con múltiples decisores. En particular, los Mapas Cognitivos Difusos (MCD) se presentan como una herramienta que facilita la modelización de los sistemas ecológicos, sus funciones y servicios. Los MCD son redes de conceptos entrelazados mediante relaciones causales. La ordenación espacial de los conceptos y la aplicación de reglas de lógica difusa facilita la integración de MCD generados por diferentes expertos, produciendo mapas de consenso. Una vez establecida la matriz de adyacencia del MCD, se somete al modelo a distintos escenarios de actuación simulándose los efectos en las funciones y servicios ambientales. En el presente trabajo se aplican los MCD en el estudio de alternativas de restauración fluvial del río Esla, donde participan 7 decisores pertenecientes a 3 grupos de expertos. Como resultado de la modelización del río Esla se obtiene una previsión de los efectos esperables en el ecosistema fluvial ante distintos niveles de actuación restauradora

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Aplicación de la teoría de grafos a la ecología fluvial : análisis de la pérdida de conectividad longitudinal en los ríos españoles por la presencia de presas

La pérdida de conectividad longitudinal debido a la presencia de obstáculos tales como presas y azudes, así como la fragmentación del hábitat fluvial para muchas especies de peces, es uno de los principales problemas a los que se enfrentan la mayoría de los ríos del mundo. En el caso de España, este problema es especialmente evidente debido al gran número de barreras presentes en sus ríos. A esto hay que añadir que generalmente los proyectos de restauración de ecosistemas suelen contar con recursos y presupuestos limitados lo que dificulta el desarrollo de medidas eficaces de gestión. Se necesita por tanto desarrollar metodologías que permitan implementar una gestión fluvial eficaz, priorizando las actuaciones sobre los obstáculos que mayor impacto estén generando a la conectividad general de los ríos con el objetivo de enfocar los esfuerzos de restauración a la obtención de los mejores resultados posibles. Para ello se propone el uso de la teoría de grafos para modelizar la red fluvial con el objetivo de: (1) aplicar herramientas de análisis de la conectividad del paisaje a los ecosistemas fluviales para cuantificar el efecto de los obstáculos en la pérdida de conectividad sobre las comunidades de peces, (2) utilizar herramientas multicriterio como son los Mapas de Conocimiento Difuso (MCD) basados en conocimiento experto para la simulación de escenarios de gestión fluvial y la toma de decisiones, (3) mejorar la información de los inventarios de obstáculos con el objetivo de implementar una clasificación ecológica de las presas en función del uso de los parámetros (franqueabilidad, uso y materiales) que mejor clasifiquen las barreras, y (4) cuantificar el grado en que una posible gestión basada en el desmantelamiento de barreras afecta a los sistemas socio-ecológicos asociados a los ríos mediante el análisis del balance de ganancias y pérdidas de servicios ecosistémicos (SE) en escenario pre y post derribo. La aplicación de estas herramientas nos permitirá comprender mejor el efecto de las presas sobre la pérdida de conectividad longitudinal así como la importancia de su funcionamiento dentro de sistemas complejos como son los ríos, lo cual es una tarea fundamental para poder realizar medidas de gestión y restauración en el que se tengan en cuenta tanto las necesidades ambientales como las humanas. ----------ABSTRACT---------- The loss of longitudinal connectivity due to the presence of obstacles such as dams and weirs, as well as the fragmentation of river habitat for many fish species, is one of the main problems faced by most rivers in the world. In the case of Spain, this problem is especially evident due to the large number of barriers located in its rivers. In addition, ecosystem restoration projects usually have limited resources and budgets, which hinder the development of effective management measures. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methodologies that allow the implementation of effective river management, prioritizing the actions on the obstacles that generate the greatest impact to the overall river connectivity in order to focus restoration efforts to obtain the best possible results. For this, the use of graph theory is proposed to model the fluvial network in order to: (1) apply landscape connectivity analysis tools to fluvial ecosystems to quantify the effect of obstacles in the loss of connectivity on fish communities, (2) use multicriteria tools such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based on expert knowledge for the simulation of river management scenarios and decision making, (3) improve the information on obstacle inventories with the objective of implementing an ecological classification of dams based on the use of parameters (passability, use and materials) that best classify barriers, and (4) quantify the degree to which a possible management based on dam removal affects the socio-ecological systems associated with rivers by analyzing the balance of ecosystem services (ES) gains and losses in pre- and post-removal scenarios. The application of these tools will allow us to better understand the effect of the dams on the loss of longitudinal connectivity as well as the importance of their functioning within complex systems such as rivers, which is a fundamental task to be able to implement management and restoration measures in which both environmental and human needs are taken into account

Aplicación de la teoría de grafos a la ecología fluvial : análisis de la pérdida de conectividad longitudinal en los ríos españoles por la presencia de presas

La pérdida de conectividad longitudinal debido a la presencia de obstáculos tales como presas y azudes, así como la fragmentación del hábitat fluvial para muchas especies de peces, es uno de los principales problemas a los que se enfrentan la mayoría de los ríos del mundo. En el caso de España, este problema es especialmente evidente debido al gran número de barreras presentes en sus ríos. A esto hay que añadir que generalmente los proyectos de restauración de ecosistemas suelen contar con recursos y presupuestos limitados lo que dificulta el desarrollo de medidas eficaces de gestión. Se necesita por tanto desarrollar metodologías que permitan implementar una gestión fluvial eficaz, priorizando las actuaciones sobre los obstáculos que mayor impacto estén generando a la conectividad general de los ríos con el objetivo de enfocar los esfuerzos de restauración a la obtención de los mejores resultados posibles. Para ello se propone el uso de la teoría de grafos para modelizar la red fluvial con el objetivo de: (1) aplicar herramientas de análisis de la conectividad del paisaje a los ecosistemas fluviales para cuantificar el efecto de los obstáculos en la pérdida de conectividad sobre las comunidades de peces, (2) utilizar herramientas multicriterio como son los Mapas de Conocimiento Difuso (MCD) basados en conocimiento experto para la simulación de escenarios de gestión fluvial y la toma de decisiones, (3) mejorar la información de los inventarios de obstáculos con el objetivo de implementar una clasificación ecológica de las presas en función del uso de los parámetros (franqueabilidad, uso y materiales) que mejor clasifiquen las barreras, y (4) cuantificar el grado en que una posible gestión basada en el desmantelamiento de barreras afecta a los sistemas socio-ecológicos asociados a los ríos mediante el análisis del balance de ganancias y pérdidas de servicios ecosistémicos (SE) en escenario pre y post derribo. La aplicación de estas herramientas nos permitirá comprender mejor el efecto de las presas sobre la pérdida de conectividad longitudinal así como la importancia de su funcionamiento dentro de sistemas complejos como son los ríos, lo cual es una tarea fundamental para poder realizar medidas de gestión y restauración en el que se tengan en cuenta tanto las necesidades ambientales como las humanas. ----------ABSTRACT---------- The loss of longitudinal connectivity due to the presence of obstacles such as dams and weirs, as well as the fragmentation of river habitat for many fish species, is one of the main problems faced by most rivers in the world. In the case of Spain, this problem is especially evident due to the large number of barriers located in its rivers. In addition, ecosystem restoration projects usually have limited resources and budgets, which hinder the development of effective management measures. Therefore, it is necessary to develop methodologies that allow the implementation of effective river management, prioritizing the actions on the obstacles that generate the greatest impact to the overall river connectivity in order to focus restoration efforts to obtain the best possible results. For this, the use of graph theory is proposed to model the fluvial network in order to: (1) apply landscape connectivity analysis tools to fluvial ecosystems to quantify the effect of obstacles in the loss of connectivity on fish communities, (2) use multicriteria tools such as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM) based on expert knowledge for the simulation of river management scenarios and decision making, (3) improve the information on obstacle inventories with the objective of implementing an ecological classification of dams based on the use of parameters (passability, use and materials) that best classify barriers, and (4) quantify the degree to which a possible management based on dam removal affects the socio-ecological systems associated with rivers by analyzing the balance of ecosystem services (ES) gains and losses in pre- and post-removal scenarios. The application of these tools will allow us to better understand the effect of the dams on the loss of longitudinal connectivity as well as the importance of their functioning within complex systems such as rivers, which is a fundamental task to be able to implement management and restoration measures in which both environmental and human needs are taken into account

Zur Geschichte der Kieler Arbeiterbewegung

FES Bonn(Bo133)-A85-2517 / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman

Longitudinal connectivity loss in a riverine network: accounting for the likelihood of upstream and downstream movement across dams

Disruption of longitudinal connectivity is a major concern in most of the world¿s rivers. Approaches based on graph theory have proven to be a suitable tool for analysing functional connectivity. However, previous applications of graph-based connectivity methods to river systems have been oversimplified in that they have treated potential barriers as binary features and rivers as symmetric networks. We here apply a network analytical approach in which (a) upstream and downstream connectivity are considered so that fish passability values across dams are asymmetrical, and (b) it is possible to consider a continuous range of passability values for every dam. We build on previous and widely used connectivity metrics (Probability of Connectivity, PC), which here are generalised and adapted toward that end. We compare the results of our approach with those that would be obtained under the more simplified assumptions of symmetric movement and of barriers as binary features. We want to prove if there are substantial differences between considering or not the asymmetry in river networks. The application of symmetrical and asymmetrical PC highlights major differences between the upstream connectivity versus the downstream connectivity. We provide our methods in a free software package so that they can be used in any other application to riverscapes. We expect to provide a better graph-based approach for the prioritisation of the removal or permeabilization of artificial obstacles as well as for the preservation of target river segments for connectivity conservation and restoration

Comparison of 1-year outcome in patients with severe aorta stenosis treated conservatively or by aortic valve replacement or by percutaneous transcatheter aortic valve implantation (data from a multicenter Spanish registry)

The factors that influence decision making in severe aortic stenosis (AS) are unknown. Our aim was to assess, in patients with severe AS, the determinants of management and prognosis in a multicenter registry that enrolled all consecutive adults with severe AS during a 1-month period. One-year follow-up was obtained in all patients and included vital status and aortic valve intervention (aortic valve replacement [AVR] and transcatheter aortic valve implantation [TAVI]). A total of 726 patients were included, mean age was 77.3 ± 10.6 years, and 377 were women (51.8%). The most common management was conservative therapy in 468 (64.5%) followed by AVR in 199 (27.4%) and TAVI in 59 (8.1%). The strongest association with aortic valve intervention was patient management in a tertiary hospital with cardiac surgery (odds ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval 1.8 to 4.1, p <0.001). The 2 main reasons to choose conservative management were the absence of significant symptoms (136% to 29.1%) and the presence of co-morbidity (128% to 27.4%). During 1-year follow-up, 132 patients died (18.2%). The main causes of death were heart failure (60% to 45.5%) and noncardiac diseases (46% to 34.9%). One-year survival for patients treated conservatively, with TAVI, and with AVR was 76.3%, 94.9%, and 92.5%, respectively, p <0.001. One-year survival of patients treated conservatively in the absence of significant symptoms was 97.1%. In conclusion, most patients with severe AS are treated conservatively. The outcome in asymptomatic patients managed conservatively was acceptable. Management in tertiary hospitals is associated with valve intervention. One-year survival was similar with both interventional strategies

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis.

The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327  There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in th