Appropriate Economic Space for Transnational Infrastructural Projects: Gateways, Multimodal Corridors, and Special Economic Zones

This study addresses three questions that arise in Asia when formulating, financing, implementing, and maintaining transnational linkages versus purely domestic connections. Firstly, how is optimal economic space to be defined as a useful starting point? Secondly, how can relevant criteria be developed to define the emerging spatial economy and identify efficient transnational transport networks? Thirdly, what are the main investment opportunities in physical infrastructure that would result in more efficient and effective regional cooperation and integration (making special reference to the potential role of cross-border special economic zones (SEZs) or their equivalents)?asia transnational infrastructure; asia regional cooperation

The US economy from 1992 to 1998: historical and decomposition simulations with the USAGE model

USAGE is a 500 industry dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the US economy being developed at Monash University in collaboration with the US International Trade Commission. In common with the MONASH model of Australia, USAGE is designed for four modes of analysis: Historical, where we estimate changes in technology and consumer preferences; Decomposition, where we explain periods of economic history in terms of driving factors such as changes in technology and consumer preferences; Forecast, where we derive basecase forecasts for industries, occupations and regions that are consistent with trends from historical simulations and with available expert opinions; and Policy, where we derive deviations from basecase forecast paths caused by assumed policies. This paper reports our first set of historical and decomposition results. The historical results quantify several aspects of technical change in US industries for the period 1992 to 1998 including: intermediate-input-saving technical change; primary-factor-saving technical change; labor-capital bias in technical change; and import- domestic bias in technical change. The historical results also quantify shifts in consumer preferences between commodities. The decomposition results are applied in illustrative analyses of growth in US international trade between 1992 and 1998 and of growth in the US steel industry for this period.

Regional macroeconomic outcomes under alternative arrangements for the financing of urban infrastructure

Many studies, both of Australia and of comparable developed economies, have found that the economic benefits from investment in urban infrastructure are substantial. However the nature of this infrastructure is often such that it is under-provided by the private sector. In Australia, much of the responsibility for the provision of urban infrastructure rests with state and local government. However throughout the 1990’s many of Australia’s state governments embarked on a period of fiscal restraint, seeking to improve financial positions weakened by exposure to failed state government enterprises in the early 1990’s. Perhaps because of the deferred consequences of reducing spending on infrastructure, a large proportion of this fiscal adjustment appears to have been borne by spending on public infrastructure. Today, policy attention at the state government level is again focussing on public infrastructure. However in spite of the now robust fiscal positions of Australia’s state governments, there remains a reluctance on their part to finance public infrastructure through debt, and raising taxes is perceived as politically unpopular. Instead, governments are exploring alternative financing instruments, such as developer charges and public-private partnerships. This paper uses a dynamic multi-regional CGE model (MMRF) to evaluate the regional macro economic consequences of four alternative methods of financing an expansion in state government spending on public infrastructure. The four methods are developer charges, payroll tax, government debt, and residential rates. The paper confirms that the services provided by public infrastructure can have significant impacts on the regional macro economy. More importantly however, the paper demonstrates that the total gains from urban infrastructure are quite sensitive to the means chosen by government to finance infrastructure investment. In contrast to up-front financing methods (such as developer charges, payroll tax, and residential rates), the paper finds that the gains from urban infrastructure are greatest when the chosen financing method provides a closer match between the timing of the burden of financing the infrastructure and the timing of the benefits provided by the infrastructure. This can be achieved by instruments such as debt, public-private partnerships, and user charges. On this basis the paper finds that a greater reliance by regional government son debt financing might be warranted, and that the gains from infrastructure expenditure are least when that expenditure is financed by developer charges.

Prognostic modelling in IBD

In the ideal world prognostication or predicting disease course in any chronic condition would allow the clinician to anticipate disease behaviour, providing crucial information for the patient and data regarding best use of resources. Prognostication also allows an understanding of likely response to treatment and the risk of adverse effects of a treatment leading to withdrawal in any individual patient. Therefore, the ability to predict outcomes from the onset of disease is the key step to developing precision personalised medicine, which is the design of medical care to optimise efficiency or therapeutic benefit based on careful profiling of patients. An important corollary is to prevent unnecessary healthcare costs. This paper outlines currently available predictors of disease outcome in IBD and looks to the future which will involve the use of artificial intelligence to interrogate big data derived from various important 'omes' to tease out a more holistic approach to IBD.</p

Immigration reform scenarios for U.S. agriculture

The general equilibrium method adopted here reveals several effects of agriculture-focused immigration policies that would not have emerged in partial equilibrium analysis applied to agriculture. Our general equilibrium model includes specifications of: inter-sectoral labor flows; the role of vacancies in determining occupational choices; and macroeconomic relationships. This enables us to show that agricultural guest-worker and legalization programs are likely to: have similar effects on the agricultural sector; cause a gradual welfare-enhancing transformation of the occupational mix of incumbent employment away from agriculture; have small (possibly negative) effects on farm income; and have positive effects on aggregate capital, employment and GDP

China's Container-related Dynamics, 1990-2005

This study seeks to gauge how far China's container-related dynamics between 1990 and 2005 fit into the wider perspective about transport and development within developing countries. In particular, attention is focussed on the role of specific modes to determine the extent of the penetration of containers within China. Before addressing these key issues extant models relating to an understanding of port and transport evolution in less-developed countries are recalled, synthesized and used as a base upon which an appropriate review of China's case can be conducted. Applying them to China's northern, central and southern port ranges not only helps assess the efficacy of these models but also highlights the contribution of individual modes

New Zealand seaports

It is the purpose of this study to determine and explain changes in the relative status of New Zealand seaports during two significant periods in the country's economic development, in an attempt to identify and understand the complex physical and human factors affecting the development of ports. The origin and evolution of New Zealand seaports since the establishment of British settlement in 1840 has closely mirrored the nature and the direction of the economic growth of the country. Indeed, seaports as places “equipped. to facilitate the necessary relations between ships as agencies of sea transport and the land” have been of supreme importance in the development of New Zealand, particularly in view of the country's remoteness from the main concentration of population and markets in the world, the overwhelming dependence on international trade and the necessity of sea transport within and between the North and the South Islands

Hong Kong's future as a regional transport hub

After the reversion of Hong Kong to China in 1997, will the port maintain its commanding position in the worldwide operation, ownership and management of container shipping; will its airport remain as a major focal point in the global aviation network linking East Asia with the North American and European economic blocks; will the location of the associated transport infrastructure be able to accommodate the changed situation; and will the linked urban developments made with respect to Hong Kong's past settlement patterns and existing political boundaries be suitable? Above all, how will its Port and Airport Development Strategy (PADS) affect economic and political relations between Hong Kong and China? Will Hong Kong be able to maintain its competitive advantage into the twenty-first century, which will be dominated by 'time-based' competition (i.e., 'just-in-time delivery', minimal inventories and faster turnaround of capital)? Resolution of these issues will determine Hong Kong's future as a regional transport hub. Before considering PADS, this monograph reviews relevant aspects of Hong Kong's economy underpinning its transformation from an entrepot into a regional transport hub. With this background it addresses the key issues by distilling PADS into its separate components and examining each in turn: port expansion, airport relocation, land transport infrastructure, and implications for urban development. Initially, it explores each component's past developments and new proposals before evaluating criticisms in aspects of the strategy. Then it assesses the degree to which the recommendations complement or duplicate developments in the Pearl River Delta and southern China. After these analyses the monograph repacks PADS and discusses its intertwined economic and political aspects, with reference to the respective roles of the Hong Kong, Chinese and British governments. Finally, it draws conclusions about Hong Kong's likely future as a regional transport hub

RED vs. REDD: Biofuel Policy vs. Forest Conservation. Factor Markets Working Document No. 41, May 2013

This paper assesses the complex interplay between global Renewable Energy Directives (RED) and the United Nations programme to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD). We examine the interaction of the two policies using a scenario approach with a recursive-dynamic global Computable General Equilibrium model. The consequences of a global biofuel directive on worldwide land use, agricultural production, international trade flows, food prices and food security out to 2030 are evaluated with and without a strict global REDD policy. We address a key methodological challenge of how to model the supply of land in the face of restrictions over its availability, as arises under the REDD policy. The paper introduces a flexible land supply function, which allows for large changes in the total potential land availability for agriculture. Our results show that whilst both RED and REDD are designed to reduce emissions, they have opposing impacts on land use. RED policies are found to extend land use whereas the REDD policy leads to an overall reduction in land use and intensification of agriculture. Strict REDD policies to protect forest and woodland lead to higher land prices in all regions. World food prices are slightly higher overall with some significant regional increases, notably in Southern Africa and Indonesia, leading to reductions in food security in these countries. This said, real food prices in 2030 are still lower than the 2010 level, even with the RED and REDD policies in place. Overall this suggests that RED and REDD are feasible from a worldwide perspective, although the results show that there are some regional problems that need to be resolved. The results show that countries directly affected by forest and woodland protection would be the most economically vulnerable when the REDD policy is implemented. The introduction of REDD policies reduces global trade in agricultural products and moves some developing countries to a net importing position for agricultural products. This suggests that the protection of forests and woodlands in these regions reverses their comparative advantage as they move from being land-abundant to land-scarce regions. The full REDD policy setting, however, foresees providing compensation to these countries to cover their economic losses

Sterols in soil organic matter of sandy arable soils: Quantification using mass spectrometry and their relation to mineralizability of soil organic N

Lately, a significant negative correlation between proportions of the compound class of sterols from pyrolysis-field ionization mass spectrometry (Py-FIMS) and net N mineralizability of soil organic N was found. However, main plant sterols (?-Sitosterol, Stigmasterol, and Campesterol) cannot be clearly verified and quantified with Py-FIMS, and there are only very few studies on measuring concentrations in soils. Thus, the objective was the extraction, identification and quantification of typical plant sterols and their relation to net N mineralization rates. The three sterols were identified and quantified in lipid extracts (Soxhlet procedure) using gas chromatography - mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Concentrations were similar to few other available studies, but concentrations of the three sterols were not significantly correlated with net N mineralizability. As quantification was difficult due to co-elution, further optimization of the methodology is necessary. In addition, the underlying mechanisms also need to be clarified