Improving Representation of Deforestation Effects on Evapotranspiration in the E3SM Land Model

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in land-atmosphere coupling of energy, water, and carbon cycles. Following deforestation, ET is typically observed to decrease substantially as a consequence of decreases in leaf area and roots and increases in runoff. Changes in ET (latent heat flux) revise the surface energy and water budgets, which further affects large-scale atmospheric dynamics and feeds back positively or negatively to long-term forest sustainability. In this study, we used observations from a recent synthesis of 29 pairs of adjacent intact and deforested FLUXNET sites to improve model parameterization of stomatal characteristics, photosynthesis, and soil water dynamics in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv1). We found that default ELMv1 predicts an increase in ET after deforestation, likely leading to incorrect estimates of the effects of deforestation on land-atmosphere coupling. The calibrated model accurately represented the FLUXNET observed deforestation effects on ET. Importantly, the search for global optimal parameters converged at values consistent with recent observational syntheses, confirming the reliability of the calibrated physical parameters. Applying this improved model parameterization to the globe scale reduced the bias of annual ET simulation by up to ~600 mm/year. Analysis on the roles of parameters suggested that future model development to improve ET simulation should focus on stomatal resistance and soil water-related parameterizations. Finally, our predicted differences in seasonal ET changes from deforestation are large enough to substantially affect land-atmosphere coupling and should be considered in such studies

Antibodies to the Mr 64,000 (64K) protein in islet cell antibody positive non-diabetic individuals indicate high risk for impaired Beta-cell function

A prospective study of a normal childhood population identified 44 islet cell antibody positive individuals. These subjects were typed for HLA DR and DQ alleles and investigated for the presence of antibodies to the Mr 64,000 (64K) islet cell antigen, complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and radiobinding insulin autoantibodies to determine their potency in detecting subjects with impaired Beta-cell function. At initial testing 64K antibodies were found in six of 44 islet cell antibody positive subjects (13.6%). The same sera were also positive for complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and five of them had insulin autoantibodies. During the follow-up at 18 months, islet cell antibodies remained detectable in 50% of the subjects studied. In all six cases who were originally positive, 64K antibodies were persistently detectable, whereas complement-fixing islet cell antibodies became negative in two of six and insulin autoantibodies in one of five individuals. HLA DR4 (p < 0.005) and absence of asparic acid (Asp) at position 57 of the HLA DQ chain (p < 0.05) were significantly increased in subjects with 64K antibodies compared with control subjects. Of 40 individuals tested in the intravenous glucose tolerance test, three had a first phase insulin response below the first percentile of normal control subjects. Two children developed Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus after 18 and 26 months, respectively. Each of these subjects was non-Asp homozygous and had persistent islet cell and 64K antibodies. We conclude that 64K antibodies, complement-fixing islet cell antibodies and insulin autoantibodies represent sensitive serological markers in assessing high risk for a progression to Type 1 diabetes in islet cell antibody positive non-diabetic individuals

Toward Human-Carnivore Coexistence: Understanding Tolerance for Tigers in Bangladesh

Fostering local community tolerance for endangered carnivores, such as tigers (Panthera tigris), is a core component of many conservation strategies. Identification of antecedents of tolerance will facilitate the development of effective tolerance-building conservation action and secure local community support for, and involvement in, conservation initiatives. We use a stated preference approach for measuring tolerance, based on the ‘Wildlife Stakeholder Acceptance Capacity’ concept, to explore villagers’ tolerance levels for tigers in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, an area where, at the time of the research, human-tiger conflict was severe. We apply structural equation modeling to test an a priori defined theoretical model of tolerance and identify the experiential and psychological basis of tolerance in this community. Our results indicate that beliefs about tigers and about the perceived current tiger population trend are predictors of tolerance for tigers. Positive beliefs about tigers and a belief that the tiger population is not currently increasing are both associated with greater stated tolerance for the species. Contrary to commonly-held notions, negative experiences with tigers do not directly affect tolerance levels; instead, their effect is mediated by villagers’ beliefs about tigers and risk perceptions concerning human-tiger conflict incidents. These findings highlight a need to explore and understand the socio-psychological factors that encourage tolerance towards endangered species. Our research also demonstrates the applicability of this approach to tolerance research to a wide range of socio-economic and cultural contexts and reveals its capacity to enhance carnivore conservation efforts worldwide

No association between islet cell antibodies and coxsackie B, mumps, rubella and cytomegalovirus antibodies in non-diabetic individuals aged 7–19 years

Viral antibodies were tested in a cohort of 44 isletcell antibody-positive individuals age 7–19 years, and 44 of their islet cell antibody-negative age and sex-matched classmates selected from a population study of 4208 pupils who had been screened for islet cell antibodies. Anti-coxsackie B1-5 IgM responses were detected in 14 of 44 (32%) of the islet cell antibody-positive subjects and in 7 of 44 (16%) control subjects. This difference did not reach the level of statistical significance. None of the islet cell antibody-positive subjects had specific IgM antibodies to mumps, rubella, or cytomegalovirus. There was also no increase in the prevalence or the mean titres of anti-mumps-IgG or IgA and anti-cytomegalovirus-IgG in islet cell antibody-positive subjects compared to control subjects. These results do not suggest any association between islet cell antibodies, and possibly insulitis, with recent mumps, rubella or cytomegalo virus infection. Further studies are required to clarify the relationship between islet cell antibodies and coxsackie B virus infections

Clinical implications of having reduced mid forced expiratory flow rates (FEF25-75), independently of FEV1, in adult patients with asthma

INTRODUCTION:FEF25-75 is one of the standard results provided in spirometry reports; however, in adult asthmatics there is limited information on how this physiological measure relates to clinical or biological outcomes independently of the FEV1 or the FEV1/FVC ratio. PURPOSE:To determine the association between Hankinson's percent-predicted FEF25-75 (FEF25-75%) levels with changes in healthcare utilization, respiratory symptom frequency, and biomarkers of distal airway inflammation. METHODS:In participants enrolled in the Severe Asthma Research Program 1-2, we compared outcomes across FEF25-75% quartiles. Multivariable analyses were done to avoid confounding by demographic characteristics, FEV1, and the FEV1/FVC ratio. In a sensitivity analysis, we also compared outcomes across participants with FEF25-75% below the lower limit of normal (LLN) and FEV1/FVC above LLN. RESULTS:Subjects in the lowest FEF25-75% quartile had greater rates of healthcare utilization and higher exhaled nitric oxide and sputum eosinophils. In multivariable analysis, being in the lowest FEF25-75% quartile remained significantly associated with nocturnal symptoms (OR 3.0 [95%CI 1.3-6.9]), persistent symptoms (OR 3.3 [95%CI 1-11], ICU admission for asthma (3.7 [1.3-10.8]) and blood eosinophil % (0.18 [0.07, 0.29]). In the sensitivity analysis, those with FEF25-75% <LLN had significantly more nocturnal and persistent symptoms, emergency room visits, higher serum eosinophil levels and increased methacholine responsiveness. CONCLUSIONS:After controlling for demographic variables, FEV1 and FEV1/FVC, a reduced FEF25-75% is independently associated with previous ICU admission, persistent symptoms, nocturnal symptoms, blood eosinophilia and bronchial hyperreactivity. This suggests that in some asthmatics, a reduced FEF25-75% is an independent biomarker for more severe asthma

Feasibility, acceptability, and cost of tuberculosis testing by whole-blood interferon-gamma assay

BACKGROUND: The whole-blood interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) is recommended in some settings as an alternative to the tuberculin skin test (TST). Outcomes from field implementation of the IGRA for routine tuberculosis (TB) testing have not been reported. We evaluated feasibility, acceptability, and costs after 1.5 years of IGRA use in San Francisco under routine program conditions. METHODS: Patients seen at six community clinics serving homeless, immigrant, or injection-drug user (IDU) populations were routinely offered IGRA (Quantiferon-TB). Per guidelines, we excluded patients who were <17 years old, HIV-infected, immunocompromised, or pregnant. We reviewed medical records for IGRA results and completion of medical evaluation for TB, and at two clinics reviewed TB screening logs for instances of IGRA refusal or phlebotomy failure. RESULTS: Between November 1, 2003 and February 28, 2005, 4143 persons were evaluated by IGRA. 225(5%) specimens were not tested, and 89 (2%) were IGRA-indeterminate. Positive or negative IGRA results were available for 3829 (92%). Of 819 patients with positive IGRA results, 524 (64%) completed diagnostic evaluation within 30 days of their IGRA test date. Among 503 patients eligible for IGRA testing at two clinics, phlebotomy was refused by 33 (7%) and failed in 40 (8%). Including phlebotomy, laboratory, and personnel costs, IGRA use cost $33.67 per patient tested. CONCLUSION: IGRA implementation in a routine TB control program setting was feasible and acceptable among homeless, IDU, and immigrant patients in San Francisco, with results more frequently available than the historically described performance of TST. Laboratory-based diagnosis and surveillance for M. tuberculosis infection is now possible

Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees

The spread of infectious diseases crucially depends on the pattern of contacts among individuals. Knowledge of these patterns is thus essential to inform models and computational efforts. Few empirical studies are however available that provide estimates of the number and duration of contacts among social groups. Moreover, their space and time resolution are limited, so that data is not explicit at the person-to-person level, and the dynamical aspect of the contacts is disregarded. Here, we want to assess the role of data-driven dynamic contact patterns among individuals, and in particular of their temporal aspects, in shaping the spread of a simulated epidemic in the population. We consider high resolution data of face-to-face interactions between the attendees of a conference, obtained from the deployment of an infrastructure based on Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess mutual face-to-face proximity. The spread of epidemics along these interactions is simulated through an SEIR model, using both the dynamical network of contacts defined by the collected data, and two aggregated versions of such network, in order to assess the role of the data temporal aspects. We show that, on the timescales considered, an aggregated network taking into account the daily duration of contacts is a good approximation to the full resolution network, whereas a homogeneous representation which retains only the topology of the contact network fails in reproducing the size of the epidemic. These results have important implications in understanding the level of detail needed to correctly inform computational models for the study and management of real epidemics

Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

PublishedJournal Article© Author(s) 2015. To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, the situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr-1 increasing CO2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon changes arising from initial conditions is dominated by model disagreement on turnover times, whereas inter-model spread in carbon changes from fractional changes to these terms is dominated by model disagreement on changes to productivity in response to both warming and CO2 fertilization. However, the lack of changing turnover time control on carbon responses, for both live and dead carbon pools, in response to the imposed forcings may arise from a common lack of process representation behind changing turnover times (e.g., allocation and mortality for live carbon; permafrost, microbial dynamics, and mineral stabilization for dead carbon), rather than a true estimate of the importance of these processes.This research was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of their Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups listed in Table 1 for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. CDJ was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Cyanobacterial Cell Lineage Analysis of the Spatiotemporal hetR Expression Profile during Heterocyst Pattern Formation in Anabaena sp. PCC 7120

Diazotrophic heterocyst formation in the filamentous cyanobacterium, Anabaena sp. PCC 7120, is one of the simplest pattern formations known to occur in cell differentiation. Most previous studies on heterocyst patterning were based on statistical analysis using cells collected or observed at different times from a liquid culture, which would mask stochastic fluctuations affecting the process of pattern formation dynamics in a single bacterial filament. In order to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of heterocyst formation at the single filament level, here we developed a culture system to monitor simultaneously bacterial development, gene expression, and phycobilisome fluorescence. We also developed micro-liquid chamber arrays to analyze multiple Anabaena filaments at the same time. Cell lineage analyses demonstrated that the initial distributions of hetR::gfp and phycobilisome fluorescence signals at nitrogen step-down were not correlated with the resulting distribution of developed heterocysts. Time-lapse observations also revealed a dynamic hetR expression profile at the single-filament level, including transient upregulation accompanying cell division, which did not always lead to heterocyst development. In addition, some cells differentiated into heterocysts without cell division after nitrogen step-down, suggesting that cell division in the mother cells is not an essential requirement for heterocyst differentiation