The Future of Central European Cities – Optimization of a Cellular Automaton for the Spatially Explicit Prediction of Urban Sprawl

The quantitative and qualitative measurement, prediction and evaluation of urban sprawl have come to play a central role in land-system science. One of the most important and most implemented artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in terms of urban systems simulation is cellular automata (CA) like SLEUTH. SLEUTH models the physical urban expansion by accomplishing four simple growth rules with every modeling step. Simultaneously, SLEUTH also reflects main drawbacks of CA since they contain a higher degree of stochastic variation leading to a simulation uncertainty. This chapter will explain how the simulation power of CA can be optimized by combining them with the machine learning algorithm support vector machines (SVMs). Conceptually in SVMs, input vectors are projected in a higher-dimensional feature space in which an optimal separating hyperplane can be constructed for separating the input data into two or more classes. In the comparative analysis, the integrated modeling approach is carried out for a unique postindustrial European agglomeration: The Ruhr Area. It will be demonstrated how the AI learning approach is implemented, calibrated, validated and applied for the prediction of the regional urban land-cover pattern between 1975 and 2005. Finally, the probability effects will be visualized with the concept of urban DNA

On Cells and Agents : Geosimulation of Urban Sprawl in Western Germany by Integrating Spatial and Non-Spatial Dynamics

Urban sprawl is one of the most challenging land-use and land-cover changes in Germany implicating numerous consequences for the anthropogenic and geobiophysical spheres. While the population and job growth rates of most urban areas stagnate or even decrease, the morphological growth of cities is ubiquitous. Against this backdrop, the quantitative and qualitative modeling of urban dynamics proves to be of central importance. Geosimulation models like cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) treat cities as complex urban systems. While CA focus on their spatial dynamics, MAS are well-suited for capturing autonomous individual decision making. Yet both models are complementary in terms of their focus, status change, mobility, and representations. Hence, the coupling of CA and MAS is a useful way of integrating spatial pattern and non-spatial processes into one modeling infrastructure. The thesis at hand aims at a holistic geosimulation of the future urban sprawl in the Ruhr. This region is particularly challenging as it is characterized by two seemingly antagonistic processes: urban growth and urban shrinkage. Accordingly, a hybrid modeling approach is to be developed as a means of integrating the simulation power of CA and MAS. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) will function as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. In order to enhance the simulation performance of the CA and to incorporate important driving forces of urban sprawl, SLEUTH is for the first time combined with support vector machines (SVM). The supported CA will be coupled with ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). This MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions. All dynamics are based on multiple interactions between different household groups as well as stakeholders of the housing market. Moreover, this thesis will elaborate on the most important driving factors, rates, and most probable locations of urban sprawl in the Ruhr as well as on the future migration tendencies of different household types and the price development in the housing market of a polycentric shrinking region. The results of SLEUTH and ReHoSh are loosely coupled for a spatial analysis in which the municipal differences that have emerged during the simulations are disaggregated. Subsequently, a concept is developed in order to integrate the CA and the MAS into one geosimulation approach. The thesis introduces semi-explicit urban weights as a possibility of assessing settlement-pattern dynamics and the regional housing market dynamics at the same time. The model combination of SLEUTH-SVM and ReHoSh is finally calibrated, validated, and implemented for simulating three different scenarios of individual housing preferences and their effects on the future urban pattern in the Ruhr. Applied to a digital petri dish, the generic urban growth elements of the Ruhr are being detected

Earth Incorporated

Earth is a proper name. Do we speak of the mars, or of the jupiter, or of the venus ? Then why the earth ? It is a degradation of both our thinking and our very special planet

Quantification and Prediction of Land Consumption and Its Climate Effects in the Rhineland Metropolitan Area Based on Multispectral Satellite Data and Land-Use Modelling 1975–2030

Land use and soil sealing are particularly high in metropolitan regions. They bring about conflicts of use: the demand for housing, business and economy is enormous, but at the same time, quality of life depends on a network of green spaces. With the aid of remote sensing, the change of urban areas can be observed and quantified over time. This study investigates the change dynamics of land cover and land use in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) with multispectral satellite data, focussing on imperviousness. Landsat data is used to monitor and analyse half a century of landscape development. In addition, recent trends in land surface temperature (LST) are estimated from MODIS data. Changes to the LST are caused by land cover and land use changes amongst other factors. Accordingly, a link can be shown between the medium-term LST changes and the hotspots of landscape transformation in NRW. Due to global climate change, land consumption is increasingly affecting the densely populated urban areas, which calls for measures to increase their resilience. The results of the study can be used by decision makers to assess the environmental impact of land use, the loss of agricultural land or the resulting effects of climate change

Earth observation education for Zero Hunger: A Massive Open Online Course towards achieving SDG #2 using EO

Persisting hunger and malnourishment continue to be a problem of global concern, which recent climate change, as well as environmental and socio-economic crises and their impacts along the food chain further exacerbate. Earth observation (EO) holds the capacity to deliver large temporal and spatial coverage information that allow for better decision-making in food production and distribution. Furthermore, the rapidly increasing amount of freely available data and tools potentially enable an expanding user community to bring this information into practice. However, more people need access to EO education to realize this potential. EO Connect (funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research) addresses this demand by developing a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2: Zero Hunger. Since a conventional course can barely reflect the comprehensiveness of SDG #2 regarding both content and the people involved in achieving the goal, the Zero Hunger MOOC leverages modern learning approaches in a non-linear, adaptive learning environment to cater to a large audience and diverse target groups, and to their different scopes and levels of desired learning outcomes. The use of micro-content, drip-feeding and feedback-guided course development shall ensure maximum effectiveness. To accomplish this ambitious endeavour, the Zero Hunger MOOC is developed with a community of stakeholders from the realms of EO, education, information technology, and food security. It builds on contents from this community which are adapted, streamlined and assembled to course modules, as well as on the expertise from the over 20 contributing universities, space agencies, national institutions and international organizations. While the Zero Hunger MOOC contributes to bridging the gap between the available EO technology and its application to increase food security, it likewise promotes stronger stakeholder connection in EO education

Urban-Rural Gradients Predict Educational Gaps : evidence from a Machine Learning Approach Involving Academic Performance and Impervious Surfaces in Ecuador

Ajuts: This research was funded by the Indoamerica University Research Program (grant number: INV-0010-004)Academic performance (AP) is explained by a multitude of factors, principally by those related to socioeconomic, cultural, and educational environments. However, AP is less understood from a spatial perspective. The aim of this study was to investigate a methodology using a machine learning approach to determine which answers from a questionnaire-based survey were relevant for explaining the high AP of secondary school students across urban-rural gradients in Ecuador. We used high school locations to construct individual datasets and stratify them according to the AP scores. Using the Boruta algorithm and backward elimination, we identified the best predictors, classified them using random forest, and mapped the AP classification probabilities. We summarized these results as frequent answers observed for each natural region in Ecuador and used their probability outputs to formulate hypotheses with respect to the urban-rural gradient derived from annual maps of impervious surfaces. Our approach resulted in a cartographic analysis of AP probabilities with overall accuracies around 0.83-0.84% and Kappa values of 0.65-0.67%. High AP was primarily related to answers regarding the academic environment and cognitive skills. These identified answers varied depending on the region, which allowed for different interpretations of the driving factors of AP in Ecuador. A rural-to-urban transition ranging 8-17 years was found to be the timespan correlated with achievement of high AP

ITW Zip-Pak Automatic Splice and Cut machine

Automatic Cut and splice machine to improve the safety and other aspects of ITW Zip-Pak Presentation in Reed 21

Low-Cost Sensors and Multitemporal Remote Sensing for Operational Turbidity Monitoring in an East African Wetland Environment

Many wetlands in East Africa are farmed and wetland reservoirs are used for irrigation, livestock, and fishing. Water quality and agriculture have a mutual influence on each other. Turbidity is a principal indicator of water quality and can be used for, otherwise, unmonitored water sources. Low-cost turbidity sensors improve in situ coverage and enable community engagement. The availability of high spatial resolution satellite images from the Sentinel-2 multispectral instrument and of bio-optical models, such as the Case 2 Regional CoastColor (C2RCC) processor, has fostered turbidity modeling. However, these models need local adjustment, and the quality of low-cost sensor measurements is debated. We tested the combination of both technologies to monitor turbidity in small wetland reservoirs in Kenya. We sampled ten reservoirs with low-cost sensors and a turbidimeter during five Sentinel-2 overpasses. Low-cost sensor calibration resulted in an R 2 of 0.71. The models using the C2RCC C2X-COMPLEX (C2XC) neural nets with turbidimeter measurements (R 2 = 0.83) and with low-cost measurements (R 2 = 0.62) performed better than the turbidimeter-based C2X model. The C2XC models showed similar patterns for a one-year time series, particularly around the turbidity limit set by Kenyan authorities. This shows that both the data from the commercial turbidimeter and the low-cost sensor setup, despite sensor uncertainties, could be used to validate the applicability of C2RCC in the study area, select the better-performing neural nets, and adapt the model to the study site. We conclude that combined monitoring with low-cost sensors and remote sensing can support wetland and water management while strengthening community-centered approaches.</p

Monitoring of Urban Sprawl and Densification Processes in Western Germany in the Light of SDG Indicator 11.3.1 Based on an Automated Retrospective Classification Approach

By 2050, two-third of the world’s population will live in cities. In this study, we develop a framework for analyzing urban growth-related imperviousness in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) from the 1980s to date using Landsat data. For the baseline 2017-time step, official geodata was extracted to generate labelled data for ten classes, including three classes representing low, middle, and high level of imperviousness. We used the output of the 2017 classification and information based on radiometric bi-temporal change detection for retrospective classification. Besides spectral bands, we calculated several indices and various temporal composites, which were used as an input for Random Forest classification. The results provide information on three imperviousness classes with accuracies exceeding 75%. According to our results, the imperviousness areas grew continuously from 1985 to 2017, with a high imperviousness area growth of more than 167,000 ha, comprising around 30% increase. The information on the expansion of urban areas was integrated with population dynamics data to estimate the progress towards SDG 11. With the intensity analysis and the integration of population data, the spatial heterogeneity of urban expansion and population growth was analysed, showing that the urban expansion rates considerably excelled population growth rates in some regions in NRW. The study highlights the applicability of earth observation data for accurately quantifying spatio-temporal urban dynamics for sustainable urbanization and targeted planning

Die Kriegsflotte Athens

Robert Rieno