390 research outputs found
What happens during a blackout: Consequences of a prolonged and wide-ranging power outage
Power outages in Europe and North America in recent years have given a lasting impression of the vulnerability of modern and high-tech societies. Although the power supply was interrupted for a week at most and only locally, massive functional and supply disruptions, threats to public order and damage amounting to billions of euros have already become apparent. This book shows what consequences a prolonged and widespread power blackout could have on society and its critical infrastructures and how Germany is prepared for such a large-scale disaster. By means of comprehensive consequence analyses, the authors drastically demonstrate that after only a few days, the supply of the population with (vital) goods and services can no longer be guaranteed in the affected area. It is also made clear that considerable efforts are required to increase the sustainability of critical infrastructures and to further optimise the capacities of the national disaster management system.
The book is based on TAB Report Nr. 141 "Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften - am Beispiel eines großräumigen und langandauernden Ausfalls der Stromversorgung"
Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften - am Beispiel eines großräumigen und langandauernden Ausfalls der Stromversorgung. Endbericht zum TA-Projekt
In modernen, arbeitsteiligen und hochtechnisierten Gesellschaften erfolgt die Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit (lebens)notwendigen Gütern und Dienstleistungen durch ein hochentwickeltes, eng verflochtenes Netzwerk »Kritischer Infrastrukturen«. Dazu zählen u. a. Informationstechnik und Telekommunikation, Transport und Verkehr, Energieversorgung oder das Gesundheitswesen. Diese sind aufgrund ihrer internen Komplexität sowie der großen Abhängigkeit voneinander hochgradig verletzbar. Terroristische Anschläge, Naturkatastrophen oder besonders schwere Unglücksfälle haben nicht erst im zurückliegenden Jahrzehnt offenkundig gemacht, welche weitreichenden Folgen die Beeinträchtigung oder der Ausfall Kritischer Infrastrukturen für das gesellschaftliche System insgesamt haben können.
Aufgrund der nahezu vollständigen Durchdringung der Lebens- und Arbeitswelt mit elektrisch betriebenen Geräten würden sich die Folgen eines langandauernden und großflächigen Stromausfalls zu einer Schadenslage von besonderer Qualität summieren. Betroffen wären alle Kritischen Infrastrukturen, und ein Kollaps der gesamten Gesellschaft wäre kaum zu verhindern. Trotz dieses Gefahren- und Katastrophenpotenzials ist ein diesbezügliches gesellschaftliches Risikobewusstsein nur in Ansätzen vorhanden.
INHALT
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG 3
I. EINLEITUNG 29
1. Verletzlichkeit moderner Gesellschaften 29
2. Stromausfall als Auslöser einer »nationalen Katastrophe« 31
3. Beauftragung, Vorgehen, Aufbau des Berichts 33
II. DAS SYSTEM DES KRISENMANAGEMENTS IN DEUTSCHLAND 39
1. Rechtsgrundlagen der Katastrophenbewältigung 41
2. Krisenmanagement in Deutschland: Akteure, Strukturen und Verfahren 46
III. FOLGEN EINES LANGANDAUERNDEN UND GROSSRĂ„UMIGEN STROMAUSFALLS 59
1. Einleitung 59
1.1 Anmerkungen zu den Ursachen eines langandauernden und großräumigen Stromausfalls 59
1.2 Kosten 61
2. Folgenanalysen ausgewählter Sektoren Kritischer Infrastrukturen 64
2.1 Informationstechnik und Telekommunikation 66
2.2 Transport und Verkehr 89
2.3 Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 117
2.4 Lebensmittelversorgung 138
2.5 Das Gesundheitswesen 151
2.6 Finanzdienstleistungen 164
2.7 Öffentliche Einrichtungen – Fallbeispiel »Gefängnis« 184
3. Verhaltensbezogene Folgen eines Stromausfalls und ihre Bestimmungsfaktoren 192
3.1 Psychologische Bestimmungsfaktoren 193
3.2 Thesen zu den verhaltensbezogenen Folgen eines langandauernden Stromausfalls 197
3.3 Informations- und Forschungsbedarf 202
IV. VERLETZBARKEIT, BEWÄLTIGUNGSOPTIONEN UND HANDLUNGSBEDARF – SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN 205
1. Informationstechnik und Telekommunikation 205
2. Transport und Verkehr 207
3. Wasser und Abwasser 209
4. Versorgung mit Lebensmitteln 214
5. Gesundheitswesen 216
6. Finanzdienstleistungen 219
7. Fallbeispiel »Gefängnisse« 220
8. Bereichs- und organisationsĂĽbergreifendes Katastrophenmanagement 222
9. Vernetzte Katastrophenbewältigung –ohne Netz 225
10. Krisenkommunikation ohne Strom 230
11. Versorgung mit Treibstoff, Sicherstellung einer robusten Notstromversorgung 231
12. Inselnetze als Option zur Steigerung der Resilienz der Stromversorgung nach einem Stromausfall 233
13. Information und Sensibilisierung der Bevölkerung 235
14. Fazit 237
V. LITERATUR 239
1. In Auftrag gegebene Gutachten 239
2. Weitere Literatur 239
3. Internetadressen 252
VI. ANHANG 255
1. Tabellenverzeichnis 255
2. Abbildungsverzeichnis 255
3. AbkĂĽrzungsverzeichnis 25
Was bei einem Blackout geschieht : Folgen eines langandauernden und großräumigen Stromausfalls
Stromausfälle in Europa und Nordamerika haben in den letzten Jahren einen nachhaltigen Eindruck von der Verletzbarkeit moderner und hochtechnisierter Gesellschaften vermittelt. Obwohl die Stromversorgung allenfalls eine Woche und lokal begrenzt unterbrochen war, zeigten sich bereits massive Funktions- und Versorgungsstörungen, Gefährdungen der öffentlichen Ordnung sowie Schäden in Milliardenhöhe. Welche Folgen ein langandauernder und großflächiger Stromausfall auf die Gesellschaft und ihre Kritischen Infrastrukturen haben könnte und wie Deutschland auf eine solche Großschadenslage vorbereitet ist, wird in diesem Buch aufgezeigt. Mittels umfassender Folgenanalysen führen die Autoren drastisch vor Augen, dass bereits nach wenigen Tagen im betroffenen Gebiet die bedarfsgerechte Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit (lebens)notwendigen Gütern und Dienstleistungen nicht mehr sicherzustellen ist. Auch wird deutlich gemacht, dass erhebliche Anstrengungen erforderlich sind, um die Durchhaltefähigkeit Kritischer Infrastrukturen zu erhöhen sowie die Kapazitäten des nationalen Systems des Katastrophenmanagements weiter zu optimieren.
Das Buch basiert auf dem TAB-Arbeitsbericht Nr. 141 »Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften - am Beispiel eines großräumigen und langandauernden Ausfalls der Stromversorgung«
Strong lensing by subhalos in the dwarf-galaxy mass range I: Image separations
The cold dark matter scenario predicts that a large number of dark subhalos
should be located within the halo of each Milky-way sized galaxy. One tell-tale
signature of such dark subhalos could be additional milliarcsecond-scale image
splitting of quasars previously known to be multiply-imaged on arcsecond
scales. Here, we estimate the image separations for the subhalo density
profiles favoured by recent N-body simulations, and compare these to the
angular resolution of both existing and upcoming observational facilities. We
find, that the image separations produced are very sensitive to the exact
subhalo density profile assumed, but in all cases considerably smaller than
previous estimates based on the premise that subhalos can be approximated by
singular isothermal spheres. Only the most optimistic subhalo models produce
image separations that would be detectable with current technology, and many
models produce image separations that will remain unresolved with all
telescopes expected to become available in the foreseeable future. Detections
of dark subhalos through image-splitting effects will therefore be far more
challenging than currently believed, albeit not necessarily impossible.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Ap
Detection of minimal residual disease identifies differences in treatment response between T-ALL and precursor B-ALL
We performed sensitive polymerase chain reaction-based minimal residual
disease (MRD) analyses on bone marrow samples at 9 follow-up time points
in 71 children with T-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) and
compared the results with the precursor B-lineage ALL (B-ALL) results (n =
210) of our previous study. At the first 5 follow-up time points, the
frequency of MRD-positive patients and the MRD levels were higher in T-ALL
than in precursor-B-ALL, reflecting the more frequent occurrence of
resistant disease in T-ALL. Subsequently, patients were classified
according to their MRD level at time point 1 (TP1), taken at the end of
induction treatment (5 weeks), and at TP2 just before the start of
consolidation treatment (3 months). Patients were considered at low risk
if TP1 and TP2 were MRD negative and at high risk if MRD levels at TP1 and
TP2 were 10(-3) or higher; remaining patients were considered at
intermediate risk. The relative distribution of patients with T-ALL (n =
43) over the MRD-based risk groups differed significantly from that of
precursor B-ALL (n = 109). Twenty-three percent of patients with T-ALL and
46% of patients with precursor B-ALL were classified in the low-risk group
(P =.01) and had a 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate of 98% or
greater. In contrast, 28% of patients with T-ALL were classified in the
MRD-based high-risk group compared to only 11% of patients with precursor
B-ALL (P =.02), and the RFS rates were 0% and 25%, respectively (P =.03).
Not only was the distribution of patients with T-ALL different over the
MRD-based risk groups, the prognostic value of MRD levels at TP1 and TP2
was higher in T-ALL (larger RFS gradient), and consistently higher RFS
rates were found for MRD-negative T-ALL patients at the first 5 follow-up
time points
A highly magnified supernova at z=1.703 behind the massive galaxy cluster Abell 1689
Our ability to study the most remote supernova explosions, crucial for the
understanding of the evolution of the high-redshift universe and its expansion
rate, is limited by the light collection capabilities of telescopes. However,
nature offers unique opportunities to look beyond the range within reach of our
unaided instruments thanks to the light-focusing power of massive galaxy
clusters. Here we report on the discovery of one of the most distant supernovae
ever found, at redshift, z=1.703. Due to a lensing magnification factor of
4.3\pm0.3, we are able to measure a lightcurve of the supernova, as well as
spectroscopic features of the host galaxy with a precision comparable to what
will otherwise only be possible with future generation telescopes.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted to ApJ
Restoration of european habitats in mainland, Portugal, using commercial seed mixtures. Considerations for its management and conservation
Permanent mountain pastures include meadows and other perennial pastures of high ecological,
economic, cultural and scenic value. Increasing desertification limits the maintenance and conservation
of its biodiversity and the associated landscape mosaic. A restoration experiment in permanent high
altitude grasslands in Beira Alta (Centre East (CE) mainland Portugal) was made, by sowing adequate
cultivars of existing grass and legume species. The main objectives addressed were: (1) comparison of
floristic composition between reference communities included in the previous habitats and the improved
communities; (2) evaluation of the success of sowing adequate cultivars of autochthonous species; (3)
evaluation of the establishment of target species in terms of the maintenance of floristic composition of
reference. The experiment was carried out in 2014 on nine farms situated in Beira Alta (Guarda District)
and the phytosociological method was applied in the floristic surveys. The sown species with highest
percentage of soil cover were Trifolium subterraneum, Lolium multiflorum, Ornithopus sativus and Trifolium
vesiculosum. In the priority habitat 6220 it was observed a re-establishment of many species in their
original composition and a high cover of several cultivars of Trifolium subterraneum. These results highlight
the importance of using cultivars of autochthonous species in the improvement of altitude pasturesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
A Novel Mutation Involving the Initiation Codon of FGF3 in a Family Described with Complete Inner Ear Agenesis, Microtia and Major Microdontia (LAMM Syndrome)
LAMM syndrome (OMIM #610706) is a rare autosomal recessive syndrome characterized by the association of Michel aplasia, microdontia and malformation of the external ear. Different mutations in FGF3 gene were reported in several families presenting with this syndrome. Clinical features and genetic results observed in a family with LAMM syndrome are reported. The diagnosis of isolated Michel aplasia was initially made in this family composed of two affected children. Microtia and microdontia was recently evidenced in both patients suggesting the diagnosis of LAMM syndrome. New auditory and orodental iconography was performed permitting to describe the patients’ phenotype in depth and to report rare findings of LAMM syndrome. The sequencing of FGF3 gene identified a novel missense mutation (c.2T>G), substituting the first initiator methionine in arginine, in the fibroblast growth factor 3 (FGF3) at the homozygous state in both patients. LAMM syndrome was confirmed and appropriate genetic counseling performed
Prediction of outcomes by early treatment responses in childhood T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a retrospective study in China
Comparison of major depression diagnostic classification probability using the SCID, CIDI, and MINI diagnostic interviews among women in pregnancy or postpartum: An individual participant data meta-analysis
Objectives A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) identified differences in major depression classification rates between different diagnostic interviews, controlling for depressive symptoms on the basis of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. We aimed to determine whether similar results would be seen in a different population, using studies that administered the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in pregnancy or postpartum. Methods Data accrued for an EPDS diagnostic accuracy IPDMA were analysed. Binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit to compare depression classification odds for the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID), controlling for EPDS scores and participant characteristics. Results Among fully structured interviews, the MINI (15 studies, 2,532 participants, 342 major depression cases) classified depression more often than the CIDI (3 studies, 2,948 participants, 194 major depression cases; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.21, 11.43]). Compared with the semistructured SCID (28 studies, 7,403 participants, 1,027 major depression cases), odds with the CIDI (interaction aOR = 0.88, 95% CI [0.85, 0.92]) and MINI (interaction aOR = 0.95, 95% CI [0.92, 0.99]) increased less as EPDS scores increased. Conclusion Different interviews may not classify major depression equivalently
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