What happens during a blackout: Consequences of a prolonged and wide-ranging power outage

Power outages in Europe and North America in recent years have given a lasting impression of the vulnerability of modern and high-tech societies. Although the power supply was interrupted for a week at most and only locally, massive functional and supply disruptions, threats to public order and damage amounting to billions of euros have already become apparent. This book shows what consequences a prolonged and widespread power blackout could have on society and its critical infrastructures and how Germany is prepared for such a large-scale disaster. By means of comprehensive consequence analyses, the authors drastically demonstrate that after only a few days, the supply of the population with (vital) goods and services can no longer be guaranteed in the affected area. It is also made clear that considerable efforts are required to increase the sustainability of critical infrastructures and to further optimise the capacities of the national disaster management system. The book is based on TAB Report Nr. 141 "Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften - am Beispiel eines großräumigen und langandauernden Ausfalls der Stromversorgung"

Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften - am Beispiel eines großräumigen und langandauernden Ausfalls der Stromversorgung. Endbericht zum TA-Projekt

In modernen, arbeitsteiligen und hochtechnisierten Gesellschaften erfolgt die Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit (lebens)notwendigen Gütern und Dienstleistungen durch ein hochentwickeltes, eng verflochtenes Netzwerk »Kritischer Infrastrukturen«. Dazu zählen u. a. Informationstechnik und Telekommunikation, Transport und Verkehr, Energieversorgung oder das Gesundheitswesen. Diese sind aufgrund ihrer internen Komplexität sowie der großen Abhängigkeit voneinander hochgradig verletzbar. Terroristische Anschläge, Naturkatastrophen oder besonders schwere Unglücksfälle haben nicht erst im zurückliegenden Jahrzehnt offenkundig gemacht, welche weitreichenden Folgen die Beeinträchtigung oder der Ausfall Kritischer Infrastrukturen für das gesellschaftliche System insgesamt haben können. Aufgrund der nahezu vollständigen Durchdringung der Lebens- und Arbeitswelt mit elektrisch betriebenen Geräten würden sich die Folgen eines langandauernden und großflächigen Stromausfalls zu einer Schadenslage von besonderer Qualität summieren. Betroffen wären alle Kritischen Infrastrukturen, und ein Kollaps der gesamten Gesellschaft wäre kaum zu verhindern. Trotz dieses Gefahren- und Katastrophenpotenzials ist ein diesbezügliches gesellschaftliches Risikobewusstsein nur in Ansätzen vorhanden. INHALT ZUSAMMENFASSUNG 3 I. EINLEITUNG 29 1. Verletzlichkeit moderner Gesellschaften 29 2. Stromausfall als Auslöser einer »nationalen Katastrophe« 31 3. Beauftragung, Vorgehen, Aufbau des Berichts 33 II. DAS SYSTEM DES KRISENMANAGEMENTS IN DEUTSCHLAND 39 1. Rechtsgrundlagen der Katastrophenbewältigung 41 2. Krisenmanagement in Deutschland: Akteure, Strukturen und Verfahren 46 III. FOLGEN EINES LANGANDAUERNDEN UND GROSSRÄUMIGEN STROMAUSFALLS 59 1. Einleitung 59 1.1 Anmerkungen zu den Ursachen eines langandauernden und großräumigen Stromausfalls 59 1.2 Kosten 61 2. Folgenanalysen ausgewählter Sektoren Kritischer Infrastrukturen 64 2.1 Informationstechnik und Telekommunikation 66 2.2 Transport und Verkehr 89 2.3 Wasserversorgung und Abwasserentsorgung 117 2.4 Lebensmittelversorgung 138 2.5 Das Gesundheitswesen 151 2.6 Finanzdienstleistungen 164 2.7 Öffentliche Einrichtungen – Fallbeispiel »Gefängnis« 184 3. Verhaltensbezogene Folgen eines Stromausfalls und ihre Bestimmungsfaktoren 192 3.1 Psychologische Bestimmungsfaktoren 193 3.2 Thesen zu den verhaltensbezogenen Folgen eines langandauernden Stromausfalls 197 3.3 Informations- und Forschungsbedarf 202 IV. VERLETZBARKEIT, BEWÄLTIGUNGSOPTIONEN UND HANDLUNGSBEDARF – SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN 205 1. Informationstechnik und Telekommunikation 205 2. Transport und Verkehr 207 3. Wasser und Abwasser 209 4. Versorgung mit Lebensmitteln 214 5. Gesundheitswesen 216 6. Finanzdienstleistungen 219 7. Fallbeispiel »Gefängnisse« 220 8. Bereichs- und organisationsübergreifendes Katastrophenmanagement 222 9. Vernetzte Katastrophenbewältigung –ohne Netz 225 10. Krisenkommunikation ohne Strom 230 11. Versorgung mit Treibstoff, Sicherstellung einer robusten Notstromversorgung 231 12. Inselnetze als Option zur Steigerung der Resilienz der Stromversorgung nach einem Stromausfall 233 13. Information und Sensibilisierung der Bevölkerung 235 14. Fazit 237 V. LITERATUR 239 1. In Auftrag gegebene Gutachten 239 2. Weitere Literatur 239 3. Internetadressen 252 VI. ANHANG 255 1. Tabellenverzeichnis 255 2. Abbildungsverzeichnis 255 3. Abkürzungsverzeichnis 25

Was bei einem Blackout geschieht : Folgen eines langandauernden und großräumigen Stromausfalls

Stromausfälle in Europa und Nordamerika haben in den letzten Jahren einen nachhaltigen Eindruck von der Verletzbarkeit moderner und hochtechnisierter Gesellschaften vermittelt. Obwohl die Stromversorgung allenfalls eine Woche und lokal begrenzt unterbrochen war, zeigten sich bereits massive Funktions- und Versorgungsstörungen, Gefährdungen der öffentlichen Ordnung sowie Schäden in Milliardenhöhe. Welche Folgen ein langandauernder und großflächiger Stromausfall auf die Gesellschaft und ihre Kritischen Infrastrukturen haben könnte und wie Deutschland auf eine solche Großschadenslage vorbereitet ist, wird in diesem Buch aufgezeigt. Mittels umfassender Folgenanalysen führen die Autoren drastisch vor Augen, dass bereits nach wenigen Tagen im betroffenen Gebiet die bedarfsgerechte Versorgung der Bevölkerung mit (lebens)notwendigen Gütern und Dienstleistungen nicht mehr sicherzustellen ist. Auch wird deutlich gemacht, dass erhebliche Anstrengungen erforderlich sind, um die Durchhaltefähigkeit Kritischer Infrastrukturen zu erhöhen sowie die Kapazitäten des nationalen Systems des Katastrophenmanagements weiter zu optimieren. Das Buch basiert auf dem TAB-Arbeitsbericht Nr. 141 »Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften - am Beispiel eines großräumigen und langandauernden Ausfalls der Stromversorgung«

Strong lensing by subhalos in the dwarf-galaxy mass range I: Image separations

The cold dark matter scenario predicts that a large number of dark subhalos should be located within the halo of each Milky-way sized galaxy. One tell-tale signature of such dark subhalos could be additional milliarcsecond-scale image splitting of quasars previously known to be multiply-imaged on arcsecond scales. Here, we estimate the image separations for the subhalo density profiles favoured by recent N-body simulations, and compare these to the angular resolution of both existing and upcoming observational facilities. We find, that the image separations produced are very sensitive to the exact subhalo density profile assumed, but in all cases considerably smaller than previous estimates based on the premise that subhalos can be approximated by singular isothermal spheres. Only the most optimistic subhalo models produce image separations that would be detectable with current technology, and many models produce image separations that will remain unresolved with all telescopes expected to become available in the foreseeable future. Detections of dark subhalos through image-splitting effects will therefore be far more challenging than currently believed, albeit not necessarily impossible.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Detection of minimal residual disease identifies differences in treatment response between T-ALL and precursor B-ALL

We performed sensitive polymerase chain reaction-based minimal residual disease (MRD) analyses on bone marrow samples at 9 follow-up time points in 71 children with T-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) and compared the results with the precursor B-lineage ALL (B-ALL) results (n = 210) of our previous study. At the first 5 follow-up time points, the frequency of MRD-positive patients and the MRD levels were higher in T-ALL than in precursor-B-ALL, reflecting the more frequent occurrence of resistant disease in T-ALL. Subsequently, patients were classified according to their MRD level at time point 1 (TP1), taken at the end of induction treatment (5 weeks), and at TP2 just before the start of consolidation treatment (3 months). Patients were considered at low risk if TP1 and TP2 were MRD negative and at high risk if MRD levels at TP1 and TP2 were 10(-3) or higher; remaining patients were considered at intermediate risk. The relative distribution of patients with T-ALL (n = 43) over the MRD-based risk groups differed significantly from that of precursor B-ALL (n = 109). Twenty-three percent of patients with T-ALL and 46% of patients with precursor B-ALL were classified in the low-risk group (P =.01) and had a 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) rate of 98% or greater. In contrast, 28% of patients with T-ALL were classified in the MRD-based high-risk group compared to only 11% of patients with precursor B-ALL (P =.02), and the RFS rates were 0% and 25%, respectively (P =.03). Not only was the distribution of patients with T-ALL different over the MRD-based risk groups, the prognostic value of MRD levels at TP1 and TP2 was higher in T-ALL (larger RFS gradient), and consistently higher RFS rates were found for MRD-negative T-ALL patients at the first 5 follow-up time points

A highly magnified supernova at z=1.703 behind the massive galaxy cluster Abell 1689

Our ability to study the most remote supernova explosions, crucial for the understanding of the evolution of the high-redshift universe and its expansion rate, is limited by the light collection capabilities of telescopes. However, nature offers unique opportunities to look beyond the range within reach of our unaided instruments thanks to the light-focusing power of massive galaxy clusters. Here we report on the discovery of one of the most distant supernovae ever found, at redshift, z=1.703. Due to a lensing magnification factor of 4.3\pm0.3, we are able to measure a lightcurve of the supernova, as well as spectroscopic features of the host galaxy with a precision comparable to what will otherwise only be possible with future generation telescopes.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted to ApJ

Restoration of european habitats in mainland, Portugal, using commercial seed mixtures. Considerations for its management and conservation

Permanent mountain pastures include meadows and other perennial pastures of high ecological, economic, cultural and scenic value. Increasing desertification limits the maintenance and conservation of its biodiversity and the associated landscape mosaic. A restoration experiment in permanent high altitude grasslands in Beira Alta (Centre East (CE) mainland Portugal) was made, by sowing adequate cultivars of existing grass and legume species. The main objectives addressed were: (1) comparison of floristic composition between reference communities included in the previous habitats and the improved communities; (2) evaluation of the success of sowing adequate cultivars of autochthonous species; (3) evaluation of the establishment of target species in terms of the maintenance of floristic composition of reference. The experiment was carried out in 2014 on nine farms situated in Beira Alta (Guarda District) and the phytosociological method was applied in the floristic surveys. The sown species with highest percentage of soil cover were Trifolium subterraneum, Lolium multiflorum, Ornithopus sativus and Trifolium vesiculosum. In the priority habitat 6220 it was observed a re-establishment of many species in their original composition and a high cover of several cultivars of Trifolium subterraneum. These results highlight the importance of using cultivars of autochthonous species in the improvement of altitude pasturesinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A Novel Mutation Involving the Initiation Codon of FGF3 in a Family Described with Complete Inner Ear Agenesis, Microtia and Major Microdontia (LAMM Syndrome)

LAMM syndrome (OMIM #610706) is a rare autosomal recessive syndrome characterized by the association of Michel aplasia, microdontia and malformation of the external ear. Different mutations in FGF3 gene were reported in several families presenting with this syndrome. Clinical features and genetic results observed in a family with LAMM syndrome are reported. The diagnosis of isolated Michel aplasia was initially made in this family composed of two affected children. Microtia and microdontia was recently evidenced in both patients suggesting the diagnosis of LAMM syndrome. New auditory and orodental iconography was performed permitting to describe the patients’ phenotype in depth and to report rare findings of LAMM syndrome. The sequencing of FGF3 gene identified a novel missense mutation (c.2T>G), substituting the first initiator methionine in arginine, in the fibroblast growth factor 3 (FGF3) at the homozygous state in both patients. LAMM syndrome was confirmed and appropriate genetic counseling performed

Comparison of major depression diagnostic classification probability using the SCID, CIDI, and MINI diagnostic interviews among women in pregnancy or postpartum: An individual participant data meta-analysis

Objectives A previous individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) identified differences in major depression classification rates between different diagnostic interviews, controlling for depressive symptoms on the basis of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9. We aimed to determine whether similar results would be seen in a different population, using studies that administered the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) in pregnancy or postpartum. Methods Data accrued for an EPDS diagnostic accuracy IPDMA were analysed. Binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit to compare depression classification odds for the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID), controlling for EPDS scores and participant characteristics. Results Among fully structured interviews, the MINI (15 studies, 2,532 participants, 342 major depression cases) classified depression more often than the CIDI (3 studies, 2,948 participants, 194 major depression cases; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.21, 11.43]). Compared with the semistructured SCID (28 studies, 7,403 participants, 1,027 major depression cases), odds with the CIDI (interaction aOR = 0.88, 95% CI [0.85, 0.92]) and MINI (interaction aOR = 0.95, 95% CI [0.92, 0.99]) increased less as EPDS scores increased. Conclusion Different interviews may not classify major depression equivalently