CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version

Single Molecule Ligand Binding Studies on CCR5 by Fluorescence Cross-Correlation Spectroscopy

The G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) C-C chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) is the major co-receptor for HIV-1. CCR5 binds to the viral glycoprotein gp120 allowing HIV particles to infect T cells. Currently, maraviroc is the only Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved entry inhibitor for HIV-1 but resistance to maraviroc has been reported indicating the need for novel entry inhibitors. Recently, four peptides derived from RANTES (Regulated on Activation, Normal T cell Expressed and Secreted), the endogenous ligand of CCR5, were shown to induce different CCR5 signaling pathways and efficiently block viral entry. The peptide analogues are 5P12, which blocks HIV-1 entry but does not induce signaling or receptor internalization; 6P4, which is a non-biased ligand; PSC, which is a super agonist relative to RANTES; and 5P14, which does not activate G-protein mediated signaling yet induces receptor internalization. Yet, we lack mechanistic knowledge about how the analogues bind to CCR5. To address this issue, we have employed fluorescence cross-correlation spectroscopy (FCCS) to determine equilibrium dissociation and inhibition constants for the RANTES analogues binding to CCR5. We developed a tandem affinity purification protocol to purify full-length, monomeric CCR5 from receptor truncations and oligomers. We fluorescently labeled CCR5 using the SNAP tag, a functional tag derived from DNA alkyl transferase, with Alexa-488. We show similar cell surface expression for CCR5-SNAP and wild-type CCR5 using flow cytometry with different epitope recognizing antibodies. We demonstrate that CCR5-SNAP activates G-proteins and internalizes similarly as wild type CCR5 in response to chemokine stimulus. We perform saturation and competition binding with the Alexa-647 labeled RANTES analogues and show that they bind with picomolar to nanomolar affinities. Global fitting on the binding isotherms shows that the RANTES analogues bind to 38% of CCR5-SNAP and recognize two different species that are non-interconvertible. Competition binding with gp120 complexed to soluble CD4 shows that the RANTES analogues are efficient at blocking Env binding. We also show that the native chemokines are incapable of displacing the RANTES analogues from CCR5-SNAP. We speculate that CCR5-SNAP is modified differentially with post-translational modifications that affect receptor affinity for the analogues. Our studies were performed with CCR5-SNAP in detergent solution that is not suitable to investigate the role G-protein on CCR5-SNAP ligand binding. To address this issue, we developed a novel zebrafish derived apolipoprotein AI (ZapN1) for the assembly of nanoscale apolipoprotein bound bilayers (NABBs). We optimized expression and purification of ZapN1 from E. coli and the assembly of NABBs with different lipids and detergent conditions. We performed FCCS ligand binding with CCR5-SNAP in NABBs to show that the receptor can recognize a conformationally sensitive antibody. Our studies illustrate the advantage of single molecule ligand binding assays to study receptor species that are averaged in ensemble measurements

Synthetic and natural iron oxide characterization through microparticle voltammetry

Se presentan los resultados de un estudio sobre el uso de la Voltametría de Micropartículas (VMP), aplicada a la identificación de óxidos y oxihidróxidos de hierro. Mediante esta técnica, fue posible diferenciar hematita, goethita, magnetita y maghemita, en muestras sintéticas y naturales. La medición de pigmentos sintéticos tratados a diferentes temperaturas, evidenció la existencia de un patrón de comportamiento que permite diferenciarlos. Se constató que la ubicación del pico de corriente (valor de potencial), varía en función de la especie mineral, el tamaño de grano y el grado de cristalinidad, el área, en relación con la concentración de especie electroactiva y el ancho, con la distribución de tamaños de partícula. En muestras con elevadas concentraciones de óxidos y oxihidróxidos de hierro, los picos se definieron a corrientes del orden de los mA (miliamperes) y en muestras de paleosuelos con un contenido de hierro total inferior al 6%, los picos se registraron a corrientes del orden de los µA (microamperes). De esta manera, se constata la posibilidad de aplicación de la técnica en estudios ambientales y paleoambientales que tengan en cuenta a estos minerales. Las principales ventajas de la VMP, respecto a los métodos convencionales, se refieren a la rapidez y simplicidad de aplicación y a la posibilidad de procesar pocos microgramos de muestra, sin limitación de su grado de cristalinidad. A diferencia de los métodos magnéticos, fuertemente condicionados por la presencia de magnetita, la VMP resulta altamente sensible a la detección de especies débilmente magnéticas.We are hereby presenting the results obtained from a study on using Microparticle Voltammetry (MPV) for identifying Iron oxides and oxy–hydroxides. This technique allowed us to distinguish different mineral species, such as hematite, goethite, magnetite and maghemite, in both synthetic and natural samples. By measuring synthetic pigments at different temperatures, evidence was found of an electrochemical behavioral pattern which allowed differenciating them. The current peak location (potential value) proved to vary according to the mineral species, grain size and chrystallinity degree. The area varies in terms of electroactive concentration of the species given. Width varies according to particle size distribution. In high iron oxide and oxy–hydroxide concentration samples, peaks were defined at current values of mA (milliampers) and in paleosol samples having an overall iron content lower than 6%, peaks were recorded at currents of µA (microampers). Therefore, a possibility arises of applying this technique to environmental and palaeo–environmental studies of these minerals. MPVs main advantages compared to conventional methods are speed and simplicity as well as the fact that it allows processing a few sample grains, in spite of its chrystallinity degree. Unlike magnetic methods – strongly influenced by the presence of magnetite– MPV is highly sensitive for detecting weakly magnetic species.Fil: Rico, Yamile. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas. Laboratorio de Entrenamiento Multidisciplinario para la Investigación Tecnológica; ArgentinaFil: Bidegain, Juan Carlos. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas. Laboratorio de Entrenamiento Multidisciplinario para la Investigación Tecnológica; ArgentinaFil: Elsner, Cecilia Ines. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas. Centro de Investigaciones en Tecnología de Pinturas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones en Tecnología de Pinturas; Argentin

Deliberation in parliaments: a review of the empirical, rhetorical and systemic approaches

ABSTRACT Introduction: This essay discusses three different approaches to the study of deliberation in parliaments: empirical, rhetorical and systemic. Materials and Methods: Through a critical review of the scientific literature, this work addresses some conceptual and analytical problems of the empirical-quantitative strategies aimed at measuring parliamentary deliberation, emphasizing the utility of the rhetorical and systemic approaches to grasp the agonist component of parliamentary debates and also their embeddedness within the broader political system. Results: The paper shows that deliberative dynamics within the democratic chambers cannot be reduced to a formal, closed and quantifiable debate. Hence, it proposes an alternative model for the analysis of deliberative processes in this institution. Discussion: The heterogeneous nature of parliaments recommends studying the deliberative phenomenon in different moments and instances, which includes formal debates, closed door meetings and even informal exchanges outside the plenary and committees. This view challenges the dominance of the empirical-quantitative framing of parliamentary deliberation in the scientific literature and supports a more holistic research strategy based on the combination of the empirical, rhetorical and systemic approaches. KEYWORDS: parliaments; deliberation; rhetoric; Discourse Quality Index; literature review. O processo deliberativo nos parlamentos: uma revisão das abordagens empíricas, retóricas e sistêmicasRESUMO Introdução: Discutimos três abordagens diferentes para estudar o processo de deliberação nos parlamentos: empírica, retórica e sistêmica. Materiais e Métodos: Através de uma revisão crítica da literatura científica, abordamos alguns problemas conceituais e analíticos das abordagens empírico-quantitativas destinadas a mensurar a deliberação parlamentar, enfatizando a utilidade das abordagens retóricas e sistêmicas para apreender o componente conflitivo dos debates parlamentares e sua inserção no sistema político mais amplo. Resultados: A dinâmica deliberativa das câmaras democráticas não pode ser reduzida a um debate formal, fechado e quantificável. Por isso, propomos um modelo alternativo para a análise dos processos deliberativos. Discussão: A natureza heterogênea dos parlamentos recomenda analisar o fenômeno deliberativo em diferentes momentos e instâncias, que incluem debates formais, reuniões a portas fechadas e até trocas informais fora do plenário e das comissões. Essa visão desafia o predomínio do enquadramento empírico-quantitativo da deliberação parlamentar na literatura e defende uma estratégia de pesquisa mais holística, baseada na combinação das abordagens empírica, retórica e sistêmica.PALAVRAS-CHAVE: parlamentos; deliberação; retórica; Índice de Qualidade do Discurso; revisão da literatura

Forecasting credit card attrition using machine learning models

Este trabajo tiene como objetivo el estudio, aplicación e implementación de modelos Machine Learning para identificar qué clientes desean cancelar alguna de sus tarjetas de crédito. La industria bancaria utiliza esta tecnología con el fin de obtener predicciones más fiables a la hora de identificar oportunidades de compra, inversión o fraude. Estos modelos se pueden adaptar de forma independiente, por medio del reconocimiento de patrones y algoritmos basados en cálculos matemáticos. Para desarrollar la investigación se implementaron y evaluaron cuatro modelos (LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest y Logistic Regression) con el fin de predecir a través de los datos del cliente y sus productos la posibilidad de que cancele sus tarjetas de crédito. Mediante una análisis de la curvas ROC usando las métricas AUC, se llegó a la conclusión que de los modelos seleccionados, el modelo elegido para realizar la predicción fue LightGBM, ya que fue el que tuvo mejor desempeño en los experimentos realizados. De igual forma, se encontró que la variable Score Acierta, una calificación del cliente proveída por la central de riesgos, es la que más discrimina en los modelos predicción.The objective of this work is the implementation and evaluation of Machine Learning models to identify which customers want to cancel their credit cards. The banking industry uses this technology to obtain more reliable predictions when identifying opportunities for purchase, investment, or fraud. These models can be adapted independently, by recognizing patterns and algorithms based on mathematical calculations. Four models (LightGBM, XGBoost, Random Forest and Logistic Regression) were implemented and evaluated to predict, using data about customers and products held pertaining to a bank in Colombia, the likelihood of customers cancelling their credit cards. By analysing the ROC curves using the AUC metric, it is concluded that, of the selected models, the model chosen for deployment would be LightGBM, since it was the one that performed best in the experiments conducted. Furthermore, the ``Score Acierta'' variable, a customer rating provided by the Colombian credit rating agency, was found to be the most discriminating in prediction models

A Robust Adaptive Dead-Time Compensator with Application to A Solar Collector Field

This paper describes an easy-to-use PI controller with dead-time compensation that presents robust behaviour and can be applied to plants with variable dead-time. The formulation is based on an adaptive Smith predictor structure plus the addition of a filter acting on the error between the output and its prediction in order to improve robustness. The implementation of the control law is straightforward, and the filter needs no adjustment, since it is directly related to the plant dead-time. An application to an experimentally validated nonlinear model of a solar plant shows that this controller can improve the performance of classical PID controllers without the need of complex calculations.Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología TAP95-37

Apuntes sobre las actividades turístico-recreativas de interior en Alicante. El ocio activo turístico como fórmula insuficientemente aprovechada

En el contexto de la revalorización de las áreas rurales y naturales con fines recreativos y de ocio, es un hecho notable la proliferación de una amplia gama de actividades bajo el común denominador del uso de los recursos que ofrece el medio, acompañado en ocasiones de un factor de riesgo y de un determinado grado de esfuerzo físico. Factores sociodemográficos, culturales y económicos permiten entender la generalización de prácticas recreativas y deportivas, desarrolladas en el tiempo de ocio, en contacto con el medio natural, con diferentes niveles y escalas espaciales de referencia que alcanzan desde la necesidad social de contacto con el medio natural en el entorno de áreas urbanas, abarcando cada vez a más capas de la población y favorecidas por la accesibilidad, hasta la necesidad de integrar en los destinos turísticos, tradicionales o emergentes una oferta complementaria de deportes y ocio para los consumidores que profundice en la competitividad de los destinos. La provincia de Alicante, espacio especializado en la prestación de servicios turísticos en el litoral, posee importantes recursos naturales en su interior que podrían sustentar el desarrollo de este tipo productos de ocio activo.The development of tourism in rural and natural areas has been supported by different resources and leisure activities, that often are focused on sport activities with a high dose of risk. The raising of these tourism activities are concerned with changes that are taking place at different levels (socio-demographic, cultural and economical) and spatial scales, as in the case of urban areas whose inhabitants really need being in touch with nature. In addition, some destinations are developing their own guidelines in order to offer a renewed range of products based on sport and leisure activities. These strategies represent an attempt to improve the competitiveness at mature destinations. Efforts need to be strengthened in this regard. The Province of Alicante provides an interesting case, a tourist area specialised in coastal tourism with important natural resources that could support the development of these active tourism products

A comprehensive risk management review for financial instruments using different value at risk approaches: which methodology improves market risk valuation?

Trabajo Fin de Grado en Economía y Finanzas . Curso Académico 2019-2020In recent years, there has been an incrementing need within the financial industry to make use of more sophisticated models to quantify the associated risk in any investment or financial activity, with the goal of achieving an adequate risk management and control in decision-making processes. Accordingly, throughout this academic research project, we present a review of the different methodologies surrounding the Value at Risk framework, one of the most common tools in financial risk analysis and quantification. We perform a deep analysis from standard approaches for measuring VaR to the more complex techniques. We will also review some backtesting procedures used to evaluate VaR models. Therefore, the main focus of this research will be to implement a theoretical and practical analysis of several value at risk methodologies and discuss their respective behaviour under real life scenarios including low but also high volatility periods, such as the one fostered by the recent Covid-19 pandemic. To carry out the investigation, historic data from the daily log returns of the Dow Jones Index will exploited through the open-source software R. Results in this paper suggest that the GARCH (1,1) model parametric approach to VaR is the best method for forecasting VaR, especially under the Student-T distribution assumption of returns. The Historical Simulation non-parametric approach, as well as the Moving Average Volatility model, also had promising results under relatively stable circumstances, but showed their weaknesses when the situation changed and volatility in financial markets dramatically increased as a consequence of the current health crisis. For its part, empirical literature highlights the lack of accuracy of the traditional Riskmetrics methodology, fact that was also observed here, where we obtained very discouraging results under such approach. Lastly, it seems that the Extreme Value Theory significantly underestimated risk, resulting in a surprisingly bad performanc

A propósito de la razón, la democracia y la administración

En el contexto actual, reviste especial importancia y utilidad reflexionar sobre las variables razón, democracia, administración y sus relaciones, con el propósito de señalar referentes orientadores para que tanto a nivel local corno internacional generen espacios y paradigmas que hagan más viable la vida para las actuales y futuras generaciones. A través de la historia, lo inestable ha sido un desafío para la razón, la democracia y la administración, en especial en la modernidad y particularmente en esta etapa histórica en que las relaciones, interrelaciones e interdependencias en lo económico, enlo político, en lo social, en lo cultural y en lo ambiental se tornan más complejas y desafiantes para densas capas de la población mundial y local

Advanced Control for Energy Management of Grid-Connected Hybrid Power Systems in the Sugar Cane Industry

This work presents a process supervision and advanced control structure, based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) coupled with disturbance estimation techniques and a finite-state machine decision system, responsible for setting energy productions set-points. This control scheme is applied to energy generation optimization in a sugar cane power plant, with non-dispatchable renewable sources, such as photovoltaic and wind power generation, as well as dispatchable sources, as biomass. The energy plant is bound to produce steam in different pressures, cold water and, imperiously, has to produce and maintain an amount of electric power throughout each month, defined by contract rules with a local distribution network operator (DNO). The proposed predictive control structure uses feedforward compensation of estimated future disturbances, obtained by the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method. The control algorithm has the task of performing the management of which energy system to use, maximize the use of the renewable energy sources, manage the use of energy storage units and optimize energy generation due to contract rules, while aiming to maximize economic profits. Through simulation, the proposed system is compared to a MPC structure, with standard techniques, and shows improved behavior.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CNPq401126/2014-5Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad CNPq303702/2011-7Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad DPI2016-78338-