Assessing Spurious Correlations in Big Search Data

Big search data offers the opportunity to identify new and potentially real-time measures and predictors of important political, geographic, social, cultural, economic, and epidemiological phenomena, measures that might serve an important role as leading indicators in forecasts and nowcasts. However, it also presents vast new risks that scientists or the public will identify meaningless and totally spurious ‘relationships’ between variables. This study is the first to quantify that risk in the context of search data. We find that spurious correlations arise at exceptionally high frequencies among probability distributions examined for random variables based upon gamma (1, 1) and Gaussian random walk distributions. Quantifying these spurious correlations and their likely magnitude for various distributions has value for several reasons. First, analysts can make progress toward accurate inference. Second, they can avoid unwarranted credulity. Third, they can demand appropriate disclosure from the study authors

Isolation and characterisation of the chick orthologue of the Opitz syndrome gene, Mid1, supports a conserved role in vertebrate development

© UBC PressThe X-linked form of Opitz syndrome (OS) is caused by loss of function of the microtubule-associated MID1 protein. The phenotype of OS includes defects along the central body axis, namely hypertelorism, cleft lip and palate, hypospadias and cardiac structural anomalies. Here we describe the isolation and characterisation of full-length cDNA clones representing the chick Mid1 gene and the detailed profile of its expression in stage 7 to 28 chick embryos. Consistent with the remarkable sequence conservation of MID1 between human and chick was the good correlation of the pattern of cMid1 expression with the tissues affected in OS. In stage 10 embryos, transcripts were concentrated in the head mesenchyme which includes migratory neural crest cells. However, the incomplete overlap with a neural crest marker, Sox10, suggests that Mid1 is a marker for somitomeric mesoderm and potentially for a subset of neural crest cells. Consistent with this, cMid1 expression was also detected at later stages in neural crest-derived facial mesenchyme, in the myotome and in the condensing muscle blocks of the limb. Expression of cMid1 was observed in the neural epithelium of the forebrain beginning at stage 7 with increased signal in presumptive rhombomeres 2/3. By stage 15, expression is highest in the diencephalon. Other areas with high expression are certain facial epithelia and the midgut that will give rise to the oesophagus and trachea. These data indicate that Mid1 plays an evolutionarily conserved developmental function in vertebrates that may involve effects on cellular proliferation, tissue interactions and morphogenesis.Joy M. Richman, Katherine K. Fu, Liza L. Cox, Jane P. Sibbons and Timothy C. Co

Analysis of electroencephalograms in Alzheimer's disease patients with multiscale entropy

The aim of this study was to analyse the electroencephalogram (EEG) background activity of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients using the Multiscale Entropy (MSE). The MSE is a recently developed method that quantifies the regularity of a signal on different time scales. These time scales are inspected by means of several coarse-grained sequences formed from the analysed signals. We recorded the EEGs from 19 scalp electrodes in 11 AD patients and 11 age-matched controls and estimated the MSE profile for each epoch of the EEG recordings. The shape of the MSE profiles reveals the EEG complexity, and it suggests that the EEG contains information in deeper scales than the smallest one. Moreover, the results showed that the EEG background activity is less complex in AD patients than control subjects. We found significant difference

The Rho GDI Rdi1 regulates Rho GTPases by distinct mechanisms

© 2008 by The American Society for Cell Biology. Under the License and Publishing Agreement, authors grant to the general public, effective two months after publication of (i.e.,. the appearance of) the edited manuscript in an online issue of MBoC, the nonexclusive right to copy, distribute, or display the manuscript subject to the terms of the Creative Commons–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).The small guanosine triphosphate (GTP)-binding proteins of the Rho family are implicated in various cell functions, including establishment and maintenance of cell polarity. Activity of Rho guanosine triphosphatases (GTPases) is not only regulated by guanine nucleotide exchange factors and GTPase-activating proteins but also by guanine nucleotide dissociation inhibitors (GDIs). These proteins have the ability to extract Rho proteins from membranes and keep them in an inactive cytosolic complex. Here, we show that Rdi1, the sole Rho GDI of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, contributes to pseudohyphal growth and mitotic exit. Rdi1 interacts only with Cdc42, Rho1, and Rho4, and it regulates these Rho GTPases by distinct mechanisms. Binding between Rdi1 and Cdc42 as well as Rho1 is modulated by the Cdc42 effector and p21-activated kinase Cla4. After membrane extraction mediated by Rdi1, Rho4 is degraded by a novel mechanism, which includes the glycogen synthase kinase 3β homologue Ygk3, vacuolar proteases, and the proteasome. Together, these results indicate that Rdi1 uses distinct modes of regulation for different Rho GTPases.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaf

An invitation to grieve: reconsidering critical incident responses by support teams in the school setting

This paper proposes that consideration could be given to an invitational intervention rather than an expectational intervention when support personnel respond to a critical incident in schools. Intuitively many practitioners know that it is necessary for guidance/counselling personnel to intervene in schools in and following times of trauma. Most educational authorities in Australia have mandated the formulation of a critical incident intervention plan. This paper defines the term critical incident and then outlines current intervention processes, discussing the efficacy of debriefing interventions. Recent literature suggests that even though it is accepted that a planned intervention is necessary, there is scant evidence as to the effectiveness of debriefing interventions in stemming later symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder. The authors of this paper advocate for an expressive therapy intervention that is invitational rather than expectational, arguing that not all people respond to trauma in the same way and to expect that they will need to recall and retell what has happened is most likely a dangerous assumption. A model of invitation using Howard Gardner’s (1983) multiple intelligences is proposed so that students are invited to grieve and understand emotionally what is happening to them following a critical incident

Mediation of smoking-associated postoperative mortality by perioperative complications in veterans undergoing elective surgery: data from Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP)--a cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the mediation of smoking-associated postoperative mortality by postoperative complications. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Using data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Surgical Quality Improvement Programme, a quality assurance programme for major surgical procedures in the VA healthcare system, we assessed the association of current smoking at the time of the surgery with 6-month and 1-year mortality. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Using mediation analyses, we calculated the relative contribution of each smoking-associated complication to smoking-associated postoperative mortality, both unadjusted and adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, work relative value unit of the operation, surgeon specialty, American Society of Anesthesiologists class and year of surgery. Smoking-associated complications included surgical site infection (SSI), cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest and/or stroke) and pulmonary complications (pneumonia, failure to wean and/or reintubation). RESULTS: There were 186 632 never smokers and 135 741 current smokers. The association of smoking and mortality was mediated by smoking-related complications with varying effects. In unadjusted analyses, the proportions of mediation of smoking to 6-month mortality explained by the complications were as follows: SSIs 22%, cardiovascular complications 12% and pulmonary complications 89%. In adjusted analyses, the per cents mediated by each complication were as follows: SSIs 2%, cardiovascular complications 4% and pulmonary complications 22%. In adjusted analyses for 1-year mortality, respective per cents mediated were 2%, 3% and 16%. CONCLUSIONS: Pulmonary complications, followed by cardiovascular complications and SSIs were mediators of smoking-associated 6-month and 1-year mortality. Interventions targeting smoking cessation and prevention and early treatment of pulmonary complications has the likelihood of reducing postoperative mortality after elective surgery

Decision and Discovery in Defining “Disease”

This version (May 17, 2005) was published in its final form as: Schwartz PH. Decision and discovery in defining 'disease'. In: Kincaid H, McKitrick J, editors. Establishing medical reality: essays in the metaphysics and epistemology of biomedical science. Dordrecht: Springer; 2007. p. 47-63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-5216-2_5The debate over how to analyze the concept of disease has often centered on the question of whether to include a reference to values, in particular the ‘disvalue’of diseases, or whether to avoid such notions. ‘Normativists,’such as King ([1954], 1981) and Culver and Gert (1982) emphasize the undesirability of diseases, while ‘Naturalists,’ most prominently Christopher Boorse (1977, 1987, 1997), instead require just the presence of biological dysfunction. The debate between normativism and naturalism often deteriorates into stalemate, with each side able to point out significant problems with the other. It starts to look as if neither approach can work. In this paper, I argue that the standoff stems from deeply questionable assumptions that have been used to formulate the opposing positions and guide the debate. In the end, I propose an alternative set of guidelines that offer a more constructive way to devise and compare theories

5D gravity and the discrepant G measurements

It is shown that 5D Kaluza-Klein theory stabilized by an external bulk scalar field may solve the discrepant laboratory G measurements. This is achieved by an effective coupling between gravitation and the geomagnetic field. Experimental considerations are also addressed.Comment: 13 pages, to be published in: Proceedings of the 18th Course of the School on Cosmology and Gravitation: The gravitational Constant. Generalized gravitational theories and experiments (30 April-10 May 2003, Erice). Ed. by G. T. Gillies, V. N. Melnikov and V. de Sabbata, (Kluwer), 13pp. (in print) (2003

Long distance c→uγc \to u \gamma effects in weak radiative decays of D-mesons

We present a detailed analysis of the $D \to V \gamma$ transitions, using a model which combines heavy quark effective theory and the chiral Lagrangian approach and includes symmetry breaking. We notice that in addition to the previously considered s - channel annihilation and t - channel W - exchange, there is a long distance penguin - like $c \to u \gamma$ contribution in the t - channel of Cabibbo - suppressed modes. Its magnitude is determined by the size of symmetry breaking which we calculate with a vector dominance approach. Although smaller in magnitude, the penguin - like contribution would lead to sizeable effects in case of cancellations among the other contributions to the amplitude. Thus, it may invalidate suggested tests for beyond the standard model effects in these decays. We also indicate the range of expectations for the branching ratios of various $D \to V \gamma$ modes.Comment: 28 pages, Latex, 2 Figure