How overconfident are current projections of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions?

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.economics of climate change, scenarios, data assimilation

How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections.Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Scenarios, Data Assimilation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo

A specimen of Tirumala hamata hamata (Macleay, 1826) (Lepidoptera: Danainae) from Captain Cook’s first voyage

On 29 May 1770 Joseph Banks described a spectacular swarming of ‘milions’ [sic] ‘of one sort’ of butterfly at Thirsty Sound, near what is now Rockhampton, Queensland, comparing it to a species from China that had been named by Linnaeus. Discovery of what appears to be an Endeavour voyage specimen of this Australian butterfly in the Hunterian Zoology Museum, Glasgow, allows us to confirm its long-suspected identity as Tirumala hamata hamata (Macleay) – a species unnamed and unknown at the time of Cook’s first voyage. Investigations into several collections that include eighteenth-century Australian Lepidoptera and associated literature have not positively identified any further specimens taken from the swarm, although a pair in the Oxford University Museum of Natural History could be from the same source. Taxonomic confusion due to mimicry, convergence and/or non-divergence affecting blue tiger patterned butterflies is most likely the principal reason such a specimen has previously gone undetected

How Overconfident are Current Projections of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions?

Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections

A role for the Perlman syndrome exonuclease Dis3l2 in the Lin28-let-7 pathway

The pluripotency factor Lin28 blocks the expression of let-7 microRNAs (miRNAs) in undifferentiated cells during development and functions as an oncogene in a subset of cancers1. Lin28 binds to let-7 precursor RNAs and recruits 3′ terminal uridylyl transferases (TUTases) to selectively inhibit let-7 biogenesis2–4. Uridylated pre-let-7 is refractory to processing by Dicer and is rapidly degraded by an unknown ribonuclease5. Here we identify Dis3l2 as the 3′-5′ exonuclease responsible for the decay of uridylated pre-let-7. Biochemical reconstitution assays reveal that 3′ oligouridylation stimulates Dis3l2 activity in vitro, and knockdown of Dis3l2 in mouse embryonic stem cells leads to the stabilization of pre-let-7. Our study establishes 3′ oligouridylation as an RNA decay signal for Dis3l2 and identifies the first physiological RNA substrate of this novel exonuclease that is mutated in the Perlman syndrome of fetal overgrowth and predisposition to Wilms’ tumor6

The Role of IL-27 in Susceptibility to Post-Influenza Staphylococcus Aureus Pneumonia

Influenza is a common respiratory virus and Staphylococcus aureus frequently causes secondary pneumonia during influenza infection, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Influenza has been found to attenuate subsequent Type 17 immunity, enhancing susceptibility to secondary bacterial infections. IL-27 is known to inhibit Type 17 immunity, suggesting a potential critical role for IL-27 in viral and bacterial co-infection

Transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation using an LTP-like repetitive stimulation protocol for patients with upper limb complex regional pain syndrome: A feasibility study

Introduction This feasibility study aimed to (i) develop a clinical protocol using a long-term potentiation-like repetitive stimulation protocol for transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation in patients with upper limb complex regional pain syndrome and (ii) develop a research protocol for a single-blind randomised controlled trial investigating the efficacy of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation for complex regional pain syndrome. Methods This small-scale single-blind feasibility randomised-controlled trial planned to randomise 30 patients with upper limb complex regional pain syndrome to either a variant of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation or placebo transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation for three weeks. Stimulation comprised 20 pulses over 1 s with a non-stimulation interval of 5 s, a so-called repetitive electrical stimulation protocol following the timing of long-term potentiation. Pain, function and body image were measured at baseline, post-treatment and at three months follow-up. At three months, participants were invited to one-to-one interviews, which were analysed thematically. Results A transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation protocol with electrodes applied proximal to the area of allodynia in the region of the upper arm was developed. Participant concordance with the protocol was high. Recruitment was below target (transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation (n = 6), placebo (n = 2)). Mean (SD) pain intensity for the transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation group on a 0 to 10 scale was 7.2 (2.4), 6.6 (2.8) and 7.8 (1.9), at baseline, post-treatment and at three-month follow-up, respectively. Qualitative data suggested that some patients found transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation beneficial, easy to use and were still using it at three months. Conclusion Patients tolerated transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation well, and important methodological information to facilitate the design of a large-scale trial was obtained (ISRCTN48768534). </jats:sec

The close limit from a null point of view: the advanced solution

We present a characteristic algorithm for computing the perturbation of a Schwarzschild spacetime by means of solving the Teukolsky equation. We implement the algorithm as a characteristic evolution code and apply it to compute the advanced solution to a black hole collision in the close approximation. The code successfully tracks the initial burst and quasinormal decay of a black hole perturbation through 10 orders of magnitude and tracks the final power law decay through an additional 6 orders of magnitude. Determination of the advanced solution, in which ingoing radiation is absorbed by the black hole but no outgoing radiation is emitted, is the first stage of a two stage approach to determining the retarded solution, which provides the close approximation waveform with the physically appropriate boundary condition of no ingoing radiation.Comment: Revised version, published in Phys. Rev. D, 34 pages, 13 figures, RevTe

Validation of the simplified modified Rankin scale for stroke trials: Experience from the ENCHANTED alteplase-dose arm

Background and aims The structured, simplified modified Rankin scale questionnaire (smRSq) may increase reliability over the interrogative approach to scoring the modified Rankin scale (mRS) in acute stroke research and practice. During the conduct of the alteplase-dose arm of the international ENhanced Control of Hypertension ANd Thrombolysis StrokE stuDy (ENCHANTED), we had an opportunity to compare each of these approaches to outcome measurement. Methods Baseline demographic data were recorded together with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Follow-up measures obtained at 90 days included mRS, smRSq, and the 5-Dimension European Quality of life scale (EQ-5D). Agreements between smRSq and mRS were assessed with the Kappa statistic. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify baseline predictors of Day 90 smRSq and mRS scores. Treatment effects, based on Day 90 smRSq/mRS scores, were tested in logistic and ordinal logistic regression models. Results SmRSq and mRS scores had good agreement (weighted Kappa 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78–0.81), while variables of age, atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, pre-morbid mRS (1 vs. 0), baseline NIHSS scores, and imaging signs of cerebral ischemia, similarly predicted their scores. Odds ratios for death or disability, and ordinal shift, 90-day mRS scores using smRSq were 1.05 (95% CI 0.91–1.20; one-sided P = 0.23 for non-inferiority) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.87–1.11; P = 0.02 for non-inferiority), similar to those using mRS. Conclusions This study demonstrates the utility of the smRSq in a large, ethnically diverse clinical trial population. Scoring of the smRSq shows adequate agreement with the standard mRS, thus confirming it is a reliable, valid, and useful alternative measure of functional status after acute ischemic stroke. Clinical Trial registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01422616

Near-infrared Spectroscopy and HST Imaging of a Dusty Starburst ERO

We present near-IR spectroscopy and HST imaging of EROJ164023, an Extremely Red Object (ERO) with R-K=5.9 at z=1.05. EROJ164023 is a disk galaxy, with an optical/IR spectral energy distribution which is strongly reddened by dust (L_FIR/L_B<~200; A_V~5). The narrow emission lines (~300km/s) and the high [NII]/Halpha line ratio indicate that this is a ``composite'' starburst-Seyfert galaxy. Assuming that star formation dominates, we constrain the SFR to be 10-700Mo/yr from a variety of indicators. We compare EROJ164023 with the only other spectroscopically identified dusty EROs: HR10 (z=1.44) and ISOJ1324-2016 (z=1.50). EROJ164023 and HR10 have similar disk-like morphologies, and both exhibit a variation in the apparent dust obscuration depending upon the diagnostic used, suggesting that there is a complex spatial mix of stellar populations and dust in these galaxies. In contrast, the compact morphology and spectral properties of ISOJ1324-2016 indicate that it is a dusty quasar. Our results demonstrate that dusty galaxies identified using photometric ERO criteria include pure starbursts, composite systems such as EROJ164023 and dusty quasars. We suggest that the classification of EROs into these sub-classes cannot be reliably achieved from optical/near-IR photometry and instead requires mid/far-IR or sub-mm photometry and near-IR spectroscopy. The advent of efficient multi-object spectrographs working in the near-IR as well as the imminent launch of SIRTF therefore promise the opportunity of rapid progress in our understanding of the elusive ERO population. [Abridged]Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in Ap