The science of clinical practice: disease diagnosis or patient prognosis? Evidence about "what is likely to happen" should shape clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis is the traditional basis for decision-making in clinical practice. Evidence is often lacking about future benefits and harms of these decisions for patients diagnosed with and without disease. We propose that a model of clinical practice focused on patient prognosis and predicting the likelihood of future outcomes may be more useful. DISCUSSION: Disease diagnosis can provide crucial information for clinical decisions that influence outcome in serious acute illness. However, the central role of diagnosis in clinical practice is challenged by evidence that it does not always benefit patients and that factors other than disease are important in determining patient outcome. The concept of disease as a dichotomous 'yes' or 'no' is challenged by the frequent use of diagnostic indicators with continuous distributions, such as blood sugar, which are better understood as contributing information about the probability of a patient's future outcome. Moreover, many illnesses, such as chronic fatigue, cannot usefully be labelled from a disease-diagnosis perspective. In such cases, a prognostic model provides an alternative framework for clinical practice that extends beyond disease and diagnosis and incorporates a wide range of information to predict future patient outcomes and to guide decisions to improve them. Such information embraces non-disease factors and genetic and other biomarkers which influence outcome. SUMMARY: Patient prognosis can provide the framework for modern clinical practice to integrate information from the expanding biological, social, and clinical database for more effective and efficient care

Prediction of leak flow rate in plastic water distribution pipes using vibro-acoustic measurements

Leakage from water distribution systems is a worldwide issue with consequences including loss of revenue, health and environmental concerns. Leaks have typically been found through leak noise correlation by placing sensors either side of the leak and recording and analysing its vibro-acoustic emission. While this method is widely used to identify the location of the leak, the sensors also record data that could be related to the leak’s flow rate, yet no reliable method exists to predict leak flow rate in water distribution pipes using vibro-acoustic emission. The aim of this research is to predict leak flow rate in medium-density polyethylene pipe using vibro-acoustic emission signals. A novel experimental methodology is presented whereby circular holes of four sizes are tested at several leak flow rates. Following the derivation of a number of features, least squares support vector machines are used in order to predict leak flow rate. The results show a strong correlation highlighting the potential of this technique as a rapid and practical tool for water companies to assess and prioritise leak repair

Mutant huntingtin's effects on striatal gene expression in mice recapitulate changes observed in human Huntington's disease brain and do not differ with mutant huntingtin length or wild-type huntingtin dosage

To test the hypotheses that mutant huntingtin protein length and wild-type huntingtin dosage have important effects on disease-related transcriptional dysfunction, we compared the changes in mRNA in seven genetic mouse models of Huntington's disease (HD) and postmortem human HD caudate. Transgenic models expressing short N-terminal fragments of mutant huntingtin (R6/1 and R6/2 mice) exhibited the most rapid effects on gene expression, consistent with previous studies. Although changes in the brains of knock-in and full-length transgenic models of HD took longer to appear, 15- and 22-month CHL2Q150/Q150, 18-month HdhQ92/Q92 and 2-year-old YAC128 animals also exhibited significant HD-like mRNA signatures. Whereas it was expected that the expression of full-length huntingtin transprotein might result in unique gene expression changes compared with those caused by the expression of an N-terminal huntingtin fragment, no discernable differences between full-length and fragment models were detected. In addition, very high correlations between the signatures of mice expressing normal levels of wild-type huntingtin and mice in which the wild-type protein is absent suggest a limited effect of the wild-type protein to change basal gene expression or to influence the qualitative disease-related effect of mutant huntingtin. The combined analysis of mouse and human HD transcriptomes provides important temporal and mechanistic insights into the process by which mutant huntingtin kills striatal neurons. In addition, the discovery that several available lines of HD mice faithfully recapitulate the gene expression signature of the human disorder provides a novel aspect of validation with respect to their use in preclinical therapeutic trial

First narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves from known pulsars in advanced detector data

Spinning neutron stars asymmetric with respect to their rotation axis are potential sources of continuous gravitational waves for ground-based interferometric detectors. In the case of known pulsars a fully coherent search, based on matched filtering, which uses the position and rotational parameters obtained from electromagnetic observations, can be carried out. Matched filtering maximizes the signalto- noise (SNR) ratio, but a large sensitivity loss is expected in case of even a very small mismatch between the assumed and the true signal parameters. For this reason, narrow-band analysis methods have been developed, allowing a fully coherent search for gravitational waves from known pulsars over a fraction of a hertz and several spin-down values. In this paper we describe a narrow-band search of 11 pulsars using data from Advanced LIGO’s first observing run. Although we have found several initial outliers, further studies show no significant evidence for the presence of a gravitational wave signal. Finally, we have placed upper limits on the signal strain amplitude lower than the spin-down limit for 5 of the 11 targets over the bands searched; in the case of J1813-1749 the spin-down limit has been beaten for the first time. For an additional 3 targets, the median upper limit across the search bands is below the spin-down limit. This is the most sensitive narrow-band search for continuous gravitational waves carried out so far

A call for transparent reporting to optimize the predictive value of preclinical research

The US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke convened major stakeholders in June 2012 to discuss how to improve the methodological reporting of animal studies in grant applications and publications. The main workshop recommendation is that at a minimum studies should report on sample-size estimation, whether and how animals were randomized, whether investigators were blind to the treatment, and the handling of data. We recognize that achieving a meaningful improvement in the quality of reporting will require a concerted effort by investigators, reviewers, funding agencies and journal editors. Requiring better reporting of animal studies will raise awareness of the importance of rigorous study design to accelerate scientific progress

Optimised and Rapid Pre-clinical Screening in the SOD1G93A Transgenic Mouse Model of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

The human SOD1G93A transgenic mouse has been used extensively since its development in 1994 as a model for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). In that time, a great many insights into the toxicity of mutant SOD1 have been gained using this and other mutant SOD transgenic mouse models. They all demonstrate a selective toxicity towards motor neurons and in some cases features of the pathology seen in the human disease. These models have two major drawbacks. Firstly the generation of robust preclinical data in these models has been highlighted as an area for concern. Secondly, the amount of time required for a single preclinical experiment in these models (3–4 months) is a hurdle to the development of new therapies. We have developed an inbred C57BL/6 mouse line from the original mixed background (SJLxC57BL/6) SOD1G93A transgenic line and show here that the disease course is remarkably consistent and much less prone to background noise, enabling reduced numbers of mice for testing of therapeutics. Secondly we have identified very early readouts showing a large decline in motor function compared to normal mice. This loss of motor function has allowed us to develop an early, sensitive and rapid screening protocol for the initial phases of denervation of muscle fibers, observed in this model. We describe multiple, quantitative readouts of motor function that can be used to interrogate this early mechanism. Such an approach will increase throughput for reduced costs, whilst reducing the severity of the experimental procedures involved

The Virgo data acquisition system

International audienc

The gravitational wave detector VIRGO

International audienc