A model of large-scale proteome evolution

The next step in the understanding of the genome organization, after the determination of complete sequences, involves proteomics. The proteome includes the whole set of protein-protein interactions, and two recent independent studies have shown that its topology displays a number of surprising features shared by other complex networks, both natural and artificial. In order to understand the origins of this topology and its evolutionary implications, we present a simple model of proteome evolution that is able to reproduce many of the observed statistical regularities reported from the analysis of the yeast proteome. Our results suggest that the observed patterns can be explained by a process of gene duplication and diversification that would evolve proteome networks under a selection pressure, favoring robustness against failure of its individual components

Social Security and Democracy

Many political economic theories use and emphasize the process of voting in their explanation of the growth of Social Security, government spending, and other public policies. But is there an empirical connection between democracy and Social Security program size or design? Using some new international data sets to produce both country-panel econometric estimates as well as case studies of South American and southern European countries, we find that Social Security policy varies according to economic and demographic factors, but that very different political histories can result in the same Social Security policy. We find little partial effect of democracy on the size of Social Security budgets, on how those budgets are allocated, or how economic and demographic factors affect Social Security. If there is any observed difference, democracies spend a little less of their GDP on Social Security, grow their budgets a bit more slowly, and cap their payroll tax more often, than do economically and demographically similar nondemocracies. Democracies and nondemocracies are equally likely to have benefit formulas inducing retirement and, conditional on GDP per capita, equally likely to induce retirement with a retirement test vs. an earnings test.

Do democracies have different public policies than non-democracies?

Estimates of democracy's effect on the public sector are obtained from comparisons of 142 countries over the years 1960-90. Based on three tenets of voting theory - that voting mutes policy preference intensity, political power is equally distributed in democracies, and the form of voting processes is important - we expect democracy to affect policies that redistribute, or economically favor the political leadership, or enhance efficiency. We do not find such differences. Instead democracy is correlated with policies that limit competition for public office. Alternative modeling approaches emphasize the degree of competition, and deemphasize the form or even existence of voting processes

Social Security and democracy

Many political economic theories use and emphasize the process of voting in their explanation of the growth of Social Security, government spending, and other public policies. But is there an empirical connection between democracy and Social Security program size or design? Using some new international data sets to produce both country-panel econometric estimates as well as case studies of South American and southern European countries, we find that Social Security policy varies according to economic and demographic factors, but that very different political histories can result in the same Social Security policy. We find little partial effect of democracy on the size of Social Security budgets, on how those budgets are allocated, or how economic and demographic factors affect Social Security. If there is any observed difference, democracies spend a little less of their GDP on Social Security, grow their budgets a bit more slowly, and cap their payroll tax more often, than do economically and demographically similar nondemocracies. Democracies and nondemocracies are equally likely to have benefit formulas inducing retirement and, conditional on GDP per capita, equally likely to induce retirement with a retirement test vs. an earnings test

Analysis of matter suppression in collective neutrino oscillations during the supernova accretion phase

The usual description of self-induced neutrino flavor conversions in core collapse supernovae (SNe) is based on the dominance of the neutrino density n_nu over the net electron density n_e. However, this condition is not met during the post-bounce accretion phase, when the dense matter in a SN is piled up above the neutrinosphere. As recently pointed-out, a dominant matter term in the anisotropic SN environment would dephase the flavor evolution for neutrinos traveling on different trajectories, challenging the occurrence of the collective behavior in the dense neutrino gas. Using the results from recent long term simulations of core-collapse SN explosions, based on three flavor Boltzmann neutrino transport in spherical symmetry, we find that both the situations of complete matter suppression (when n_e >> n_nu) and matter-induced decoherence (when n_e \gtrsim n_nu) of flavor conversions are realized during the accretion phase. The matter suppression at high densities prevents any possible impact of the neutrino oscillations on the neutrino heating and hence on the dynamics of the explosion. Furthermore, it changes the interpretation of the Earth matter effect on the SN neutrino signal during the accretion phase, allowing the possibility of the neutrino mass hierarchy discrimination at not too small values of the leptonic mixing angle \theta_{13} (i.e. \sin^2{\theta}_{13} \gtrsim 10^{-3}).Comment: Revised version (15 pages, 13 eps figures) published on Physical Review D. Discussion enlarged, references update

An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models’ contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 5 project (Que´bec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in 10 Southern Que´bec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs’ members over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows

On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff

In climate change impact research, the assessment of future river runoff as well as the catchment scale water balance is impeded by different sources of modeling uncertainty. Some research has already been done in order to quantify the uncertainty of climate 5 projections originating from the climate models and the downscaling techniques as well as from the internal variability evaluated from climate model member ensembles. Yet, the use of hydrological models adds another layer of incertitude. Within the QBic3 project (Qu´ebec-Bavaria International Collaboration on Climate Change) the relative contributions to the overall uncertainty from the whole model chain (from global climate 10 models to water management models) are investigated using an ensemble of multiple climate and hydrological models. Although there are many options to downscale global climate projections to the regional scale, recent impact studies tend to use Regional Climate Models (RCMs). One reason for that is that the physical coherence between atmospheric and land-surface 15 variables is preserved. The coherence between temperature and precipitation is of particular interest in hydrology. However, the regional climate model outputs often are biased compared to the observed climatology of a given region. Therefore, biases in those outputs are often corrected to reproduce historic runoff conditions from hydrological models using them, even if those corrections alter the relationship between temperature and precipitation. So, as bias correction may affect the consistency between RCM output variables, the use of correction techniques and even the use of (biased) climate model data itself is sometimes disputed among scientists. For those reasons, the effect of bias correction on simulated runoff regimes and the relative change in selected runoff indicators is explored. If it affects the conclusion of climate change analysis in 25 hydrology, we should consider it as a source of uncertainty. If not, the application of bias correction methods is either unnecessary in hydro-climatic projections, or safe to use as it does not alter the change signal of river runoff. The results of the present paper highlight the analysis of daily runoff simulated with four different hydrological models in two natural-flow catchments, driven by different regional climate models for a reference and a future period. As expected, bias correction of climate model outputs is important for the reproduction of the runoff regime of the 5 past regardless of the hydrological model used. Then again, its impact on the relative change of flow indicators between reference and future period is weak for most indicators with the exception of the timing of the spring flood peak. Still, our results indicate that the impact of bias correction on runoff indicators increases with bias in the climate simulations

Multiple transition zone seismic discontinuities and low velocity layers below western United States

With P-to-S converted waves recorded at seismic stations of the U.S. Transportable Array, we image the fine structure of upper mantle and transition zone (TZ) beneath the western U.S. We map the topographies of seismic discontinuities by stacking data by common conversion points along profiles. Systematic depth and amplitude measurements are performed not only for the well-known “410” and “660” interfaces but also for minor seismic discontinuities identified around 350, 590, and 630 km depths. The amplitude of conversion suggests shear wave velocity (Vs) increase by 4% at the 410 and the 660. The observed 660 velocity contrast is smaller than expected from the 6% in IASP91 but consistent with a pyrolitic model of mantle composition. The Gorda plate, subducted under northern California, is tracked to the TZ where it seems to flatten and induce uplift of the 410 under northern Nevada. Maps of 410/660 amplitude/topography reveal that the TZ is anomalous beneath the geographical borders of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, with (1) a thickened TZ, (2) a sharp change in depth of the 660, (3) a reduced 410 conversion amplitude in the North, and (4) a positive “630” discontinuity. Such anomalous structure might be inherited from the past history of plate subduction/accretion. A thinned TZ under the Yellowstone suggests higher-than-average temperatures, perhaps due to a deep thermal plume. Both the “350” and the “590” negative discontinuities extend over very large areas. They might be related either to an increased water content in the TZ, a significant amount of oceanic material accumulated through the past 100 Myr, or both.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (VICI grant NWO:VICI865.03.007