Are Changes in the Mean or Variability of Climate Signals More Important for Long-Term Stochastic Growth Rate?

Population dynamics are affected by changes in both the mean and standard deviation of climate, e.g., changes in average temperature are likely to affect populations, but so are changes in the strength of year-to-year temperature variability. The impacts of increases in average temperature are extensively researched, while the impacts of changes in climate variability are less studied. Is the greater attention given to changes in mean environment justified? To help answer this question we developed a simple population model, explicitly linked to an environmental process. We used the model to compare the sensitivities of a population’s long-term stochastic growth rate, a measure of fitness, to changes in the mean and standard deviation of the environment. Results are interpreted in light of a comparative analysis of the relative magnitudes of change in means and standard deviations of biologically relevant climate variables in the United States. Results show that changes in the variability of the environment can be more important for many populations. Changes in mean conditions are likely to have a greater impact than changes in variability on populations far from their ideal environment, for example, populations near species range boundaries and potentially of conservation concern. Populations near range centres and close to their ideal environment are more likely to be affected by changes in variability. Among pest and insect disease vectors, as well as species of commercial value, populations likely to be of greatest economic and public health significance are those near species range centers, living in a near-ideal environment for the species. Observed changes in the variability of climate variables may benefit these populations

Dimensions of some affine Deligne-Lusztig varieties

This paper concerns the dimensions of certain affine Deligne-Lusztig varieties, both in the affine Grassmannian and in the affine flag manifold. Rapoport conjectured a formula for the dimensions of the varieties X_mu(b) in the affine Grassmannian. We prove his conjecture for b in the split torus; we find that these varieties are equidimensional; and we reduce the general conjecture to the case of superbasic b. In the affine flag manifold, we prove a formula that reduces the dimension question for X_x(b) with b in the split torus to computations of dimensions of intersections of Iwahori orbits with orbits of the unipotent radical. Calculations using this formula allow us to verify a conjecture of Reuman in many new cases, and to make progress toward a generalization of his conjecture.Comment: 51 pages, 12 figure

Tail associations in ecological variables and their impact on extinction risk

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate change. Furthermore, there is reason to believe ECEs may modify "tail associations" between distinct population vital rates, or between values of an environmental variable measured in different locations. "Tail associations" between two variables are associations that occur between values in the left or right tails of the distributions of the variables. Two positively associated variables can be principally "left-tail associated" (i.e., more correlated when they take low values than when they take high values) or "right-tail associated" (more correlated when they take high than low values), even with the same overall correlation coefficient in both cases. We tested, in the context of non-spatial stage-structured matrix models, whether tail associations between stage-specific vital rates may influence extinction risk. We also tested whether the nature of spatial tail associations of environmental variables can influence metapopulation extinction risk. For instance, if low values of an environmental variable reduce the growth rates of local populations, one may expect that left-tail associations increase metapopulation extinction risks because then environmental "catastrophes" are spatially synchronized, presumably reducing the potential for rescue effects. For the non-spatial, stage-structured models we considered, left-tail associations between vital rates did accentuate extinction risk compared to right-tail associations, but the effect was small. In contrast, we showed that density dependence interacts with tail associations to influence metapopulation extinction risk substantially: For population models showing undercompensatory density dependence, left-tail associations in environmental variables often strongly accentuated and right-tail associations mitigated extinction risk, whereas the reverse was usually true for models showing overcompensatory density dependence. Tail associations and their asymmetries are taken into account in assessing risks in finance and other fields, but to our knowledge, our study is one of the first to consider how tail associations influence population extinction risk. Our modeling results provide an initial demonstration of a new mechanism influencing extinction risks and, in our view, should help motivate more comprehensive study of the mechanism and its importance for real populations in future work

Grey squirrels in central Italy: a new threat for endemic red squirrel subspecies

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Affine Deligne-Lusztig varieties in affine flag varieties

This paper studies affine Deligne-Lusztig varieties in the affine flag manifold of a split group. Among other things, it proves emptiness for certain of these varieties, relates some of them to those for Levi subgroups, extends previous conjectures concerning their dimensions, and generalizes the superset method.Comment: 44 pages, 4 figures. Minor changes to font, references, and acknowledgments. Improved introduction, other improvements in exposition, and two new figures added, for a total of

Synchrony is more than its top-down and climatic parts: Interacting Moran effects on phytoplankton in British seas

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Large-scale spatial synchrony is ubiquitous in ecology. We examined 56 years of data representing chlorophyll density in 26 areas in British seas monitored by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We used wavelet methods to disaggregate synchronous fluctuations by timescale and determine that drivers of synchrony include both biotic and abiotic variables. We tested these drivers for statistical significance by comparison with spatially synchronous surrogate data. Identification of causes of synchrony is distinct from, and goes beyond, determining drivers of local population dynamics. We generated timescale-specific models, accounting for 61% of long-timescale (> 4yrs) synchrony in a chlorophyll density index, but only 3% of observed short-timescale (< 4yrs) synchrony. Thus synchrony and its causes are timescale-specific. The dominant source of long-timescale chlorophyll synchrony was closely related to sea surface temperature, through a climatic Moran effect, though likely via complex oceanographic mechanisms. The top-down action of Calanus finmarchicus predation enhances this environmental synchronising mechanism and interacts with it non-additively to produce more long-timescale synchrony than top-down and climatic drivers would produce independently. Our principal result is therefore a demonstration of interaction effects between Moran drivers of synchrony, a new mechanism for synchrony that may influence many ecosystems at large spatial scales

A new approach to interspecific synchrony in population ecology using tail association

Standard methods for studying the association between two ecologically important variables provide only a small slice of the information content of the association, but statistical approaches are available that provide comprehensive information. In particular, available approaches can reveal tail associations, that is, accentuated or reduced associations between the more extreme values of variables. We here study the nature and causes of tail associations between phenological or population-density variables of co-located species, and their ecological importance. We employ a simple method of measuring tail associations which we call the partial Spearman correlation. Using multidecadal, multi-species spatiotemporal datasets on aphid first flights and marine phytoplankton population densities, we assess the potential for tail association to illuminate two major topics of study in community ecology: the stability or instability of aggregate community measures such as total community biomass and its relationship with the synchronous or compensatory dynamics of the community's constituent species; and the potential for fluctuations and trends in species phenology to result in trophic mismatches. We find that positively associated fluctuations in the population densities of co-located species commonly show asymmetric tail associations; that is, it is common for two species’ densities to be more correlated when large than when small, or vice versa. Ordinary measures of association such as correlation do not take this asymmetry into account. Likewise, positively associated fluctuations in the phenology of co-located species also commonly show asymmetric tail associations. We provide evidence that tail associations between two or more species’ population-density or phenology time series can be inherited from mutual tail associations of these quantities with an environmental driver. We argue that our understanding of community dynamics and stability, and of phenologies of interacting species, can be meaningfully improved in future work by taking into account tail associations

Self‐organizing cicada choruses respond to the local sound and light environment

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.1. Periodical cicadas exhibit an extraordinary capacity for self‐organizing spatially synchronous breeding behavior. The regular emergence of periodical cicada broods across the United States is a phenomenon of longstanding public and scientific interest, as the cicadas of each brood emerge in huge numbers and briefly dominate their ecosystem. During the emergence, the 17‐year periodical cicada species Magicicada cassini is found to form synchronized choruses, and we investigated their chorusing behavior from the standpoint of spatial synchrony. 2. Cicada choruses were observed to form in trees, calling regularly every five seconds. In order to determine the limits of this self‐organizing behavior, we set out to quantify the spatial synchronization between cicada call choruses in different trees, and how and why this varies in space and time. 3. We performed 20 simultaneous recordings in Clinton State Park, Kansas, in June 2015 (Brood IV), with a team of citizen‐science volunteers using consumer equipment (smartphones). We use a wavelet approach to show in detail how spatially synchronous, self‐organized chorusing varies across the forest. 4. We show how conditions that increase the strength of audio interactions between cicadas also increase the spatial synchrony of their chorusing. Higher forest canopy light levels increase cicada activity, corresponding to faster and higher‐amplitude chorus cycling and to greater synchrony of cycles across space. We implemented a relaxation‐oscillator‐ensemble model of interacting cicadas, finding that a tendency to call more often, driven by light levels, results in all these effects. 5. Results demonstrate how the capacity to self‐organize in ecology depends sensitively on environmental conditions. Spatially correlated modulation of cycling rate by an external driver can also promote self‐organization of phase synchrony.NSF grant 1442595NSF grant 17114195James S McDonnell FoundationUniversity of KansasUSDA‐NIFA 2016‐67012‐24694NatureNet Science Fellowshi