88 research outputs found
To create value in the covid-19 era, set aside standard risk management
It’s often been said that nothing is certain in this world except death and taxes. Now the COVID-19 crisis has brought uncertainty to dizzying new levels. For the past few months, the world has been grappling with unanswerable questions – from pangolins and masks at the height of the crisis, to economic damage and a possible new normal in recent weeks
How firms can overcome market-based innovation barriers
How do firms overcome market-based innovation barriers and improve their innovations’ performance? Until now, research took either a ‘mindset’ or an ‘action’ perspective. Sebastian Szambelan, Jiang Dragon Yi, and René Mauer investigate how both mindsets and actions can help firms overcome innovation barriers
Global variations in diabetes mellitus based on fasting glucose and haemogloblin A1c
Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose
diabetes, but may identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117
population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of
diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected
as having diabetes in survey screening had elevated FPG, HbA1c, or both. We developed
prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously
diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa.
The age-standardised proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed, and
detected in survey screening, ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66%
in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the agestandardised
proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39%
across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and
middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c more common than isolated elevated
FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and
underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite
resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global gap in diabetes diagnosis and
surveillance.peer-reviewe
Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants
Background
Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories.
Methods
We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30–79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.
Findings
The number of people aged 30–79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306–359) million women and 317 (292–344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584–668) million women and 652 (604–698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55–62) of women and 49% (46–52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43–51) of women and 38% (35–41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20–27) for women and 18% (16–21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran.
Interpretation
Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings
Least Squares Estimation in Multiple Change-Point Models
Change-point analysis is devoted to the detection and estimation of the time of structural changes within a data set of time-ordered observations. In this thesis, we estimate simultaneously multiple change-points by the least squares method and examine asymptotic properties of such estimators. Using argmin theorems, we prove weak and strong consistency under different moment conditions and investigate convergence in distribution. The identification of the limit variable allows us to derive an asymptotic confidence region for the unknown parameters. Based on a simulation study we evaluate these results
Learning from technology ventures: the impact of causal and effectual behaviour on uncertainty
Least Squares Estimation in Multiple Change-Point Models
Change-point analysis is devoted to the detection and estimation of the time of structural changes within a data set of time-ordered observations. In this thesis, we estimate simultaneously multiple change-points by the least squares method and examine asymptotic properties of such estimators. Using argmin theorems, we prove weak and strong consistency under different moment conditions and investigate convergence in distribution. The identification of the limit variable allows us to derive an asymptotic confidence region for the unknown parameters. Based on a simulation study we evaluate these results
Learning from technology ventures: the impact of causal and effectual behaviour on uncertainty
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