A Framework for Analysis of the Uncertainty of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change on the Risk of Water Stress: a Case Study in Asia

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in how these factors change in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. If socio-economic growth is unconstrained by global actions to limit greenhouse gas concentrations, water-stressed populations may increase from about 800 million to 1.7 billion in this region.The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a consortium of industrial and foundation sponsors. For the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all

Suggestion, hypnosis and hypnotherapy: a survey of use, knowledge and attitudes of anaesthetists

Publisher's copy made available with the permission of the publisher © Australian Society of AnaesthetistsClinical hypnosis is a skill of using words and gestures (frequently called suggestions) in particular ways to achieve specific outcomes. It is being increasingly recognised as a useful intervention for managing a range of symptoms, especially pain and anxiety. We surveyed all 317 South Australian Fellows and trainees registered with ANZCA to determine their use, knowledge of, and attitudes towards positive suggestion, hypnosis and hypnotherapy in their anaesthesia practice. The response rate was 218 anaesthetists (69%). The majority of respondents (63%) rated their level of knowledge on this topic as below average. Forty-eight per cent of respondents indicated that there was a role for hypnotherapy in clinical anaesthesia, particularly in areas seen as traditional targets for the modality, i.e. pain and anxiety states. Nearly half of the anaesthetists supported the use of hypnotherapy and positive suggestions within clinical anaesthesia. Those respondents who had experience of clinical hypnotherapy were more likely to support hypnosis teaching at undergraduate or postgraduate level when compared with those with no experience.http://www.aaic.net.au/Article.asp?D=200408

Analysis of U.S. Water Resources under Climate Change

The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, extended to include a Water Resource System (WRS) component, is applied to an integrated assessment of effects of alternative climate policy scenarios on U.S. water systems. Climate results are downscaled to yield estimates of surface runoff at 99 river basins of the continental U.S., with an exploration of climate patterns that are relatively wet and dry over the region. These estimates are combined with estimated groundwater supplies. An 11-region economic model (USREP) sets conditions driving water requirements estimated for five use sectors, with detailed sub-models employed for analysis of irrigation and electric power. The water system of the interconnected basins is operated to minimize water stress. Results suggest that, with or without climate change, U.S. average annual water stress is expected to increase over the period 2041 to 2050, primarily because of an increase in water requirements, with the largest water stresses projected in the South West. Policy to lower atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has a beneficial effect, reducing water stress intensity and variability in the concerned basins.The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science under grants DE-FG02-94ER61937, DE-FG02- 93ER61677, DEFG02-08ER64597, and DE-FG02-06ER64320; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under grants XA-83344601-0, XA-83240101, XA-83042801-0, PI-83412601- 0, RD-83096001, and RD-83427901-0; the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants SES- 0825915, EFRI-0835414, ATM-0120468, BCS-0410344, ATM-0329759, and DMS-0426845; the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grants NNX07AI49G, NNX08AY59A, NNX06AC30A, NNX09AK26G, NNX08AL73G, NNX09AI26G, NNG04GJ80G, NNG04GP30G, and NNA06CN09A; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under grants DG1330-05-CN-1308, NA070AR4310050, and NA16GP2290; the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration under grant 06-C-NE-MIT; the Electric Power Research Institute under grant EPP32616/C15124; and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors (for the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html

Herd-level risk factors of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales after the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

We present the results of a 2005 case–control study of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) breakdowns in English and Welsh herds. The herd management, farming practices, and environmental factors of 401matched pairs of case and control herds were investigated to provide a picture of herd-level risk factors in areas of varying bTB incidence. A global conditional logistic regression model, with region-specific variants, was used to compare case herds that had experienced a confirmed bTB breakdown to contemporaneous control herds matched on region, herd type, herd size, and parish testing interval. Contacts with cattle from contiguous herds and sourcing cattle from herds with a recent history of bTB were associated with an increased risk in both the global and regional analyses. Operating a farm over several premises, providing cattle feed inside the housing, and the presence of badgers were also identified as significantly associated with an increased bTB risk. Steps taken to minimize cattle contacts with neighboring herds and altering trading practices could have the potential to reduce the size of the bTB epidemic. In principle, limiting the interactions between cattle and wildlife may also be useful; however this study did not highlight any specific measures to implement

Spin-dependent thermoelectric transport coefficients in near-perfect quantum wires

Thermoelectric transport coefficients are determined for semiconductor quantum wires with weak thickness fluctuations. Such systems exhibit anomalies in conductance near 1/4 and 3/4 of 2e^2/h on the rising edge to the first conductance plateau, explained by singlet and triplet resonances of conducting electrons with a single weakly bound electron in the wire [T. Rejec, A. Ramsak, and J.H. Jefferson, Phys. Rev. B 62, 12985 (2000)]. We extend this work to study the Seebeck thermopower coefficient and linear thermal conductance within the framework of the Landauer-Buettiker formalism, which also exhibit anomalous structures. These features are generic and robust, surviving to temperatures of a few degrees. It is shown quantitatively how at elevated temperatures thermal conductance progressively deviates from the Wiedemann-Franz law.Comment: To appear in Phys. Rev. B 2002; 3 figure

A systematic evaluation of physical activity and diet policies in Scotland: Results from the 2021 Active Healthy Kids Report Card

Background Policymaking regarding physical activity (PA) and diet plays an important role in childhood health promotion. This study provides a detailed examination of Scottish government and policy for child and adolescent PA and diet and discusses strengths and areas for improvement. Methods Scottish policy documents (n = 18 [PA]; n = 10 [diet])—published in 2011–20—were reviewed for grading using an adapted version of the Health-Enhancing Physical Activity Policy Audit Tool Version 2. Results There is clear evidence of leadership and commitment to improving PA and diet and tackling obesity in children and adolescents. The allocation of funds and resources for policy implementation has increased substantially over the past decade. Progress through early key stages of public policymaking—policy agenda and formation—has improved. However, there is limited information on later key stages, including policy monitoring and evaluation. Conclusions Childhood PA and diet are a clear priority in Scotland, and PA and diet policies clearly support the desire to achieve other goals, including reducing inequalities and increasing active travel in Scotland. Nonetheless, future policies should be further strengthened through clear(er) plans of implementation, and monitoring and evaluation to support their societal impact

Prioritizing disease and trait causal variants at the TNFAIP3 locus using functional and genomic features

Genome-wide association studies have associated thousands of genetic variants with complex traits and diseases, but pinpointing the causal variant(s) among those in tight linkage disequilibrium with each associated variant remains a major challenge. Here, we use seven experimental assays to characterize all common variants at the multiple disease-associated TNFAIP3 locus in five disease-relevant immune cell lines, based on a set of features related to regulatory potential. Trait/disease-associated variants are enriched among SNPs prioritized based on either: (1) residing within CRISPRi-sensitive regulatory regions, or (2) localizing in a chromatin accessible region while displaying allele-specific reporter activity. Of the 15 trait/disease-associated haplotypes at TNFAIP3, 9 have at least one variant meeting one or both of these criteria, 5 of which are further supported by genetic fine-mapping. Our work provides a comprehensive strategy to characterize genetic variation at important disease-associated loci, and aids in the effort to identify trait causal genetic variants

Detector Description and Performance for the First Coincidence Observations between LIGO and GEO

For 17 days in August and September 2002, the LIGO and GEO interferometer gravitational wave detectors were operated in coincidence to produce their first data for scientific analysis. Although the detectors were still far from their design sensitivity levels, the data can be used to place better upper limits on the flux of gravitational waves incident on the earth than previous direct measurements. This paper describes the instruments and the data in some detail, as a companion to analysis papers based on the first data.Comment: 41 pages, 9 figures 17 Sept 03: author list amended, minor editorial change

Search for Gravitational Waves from Primordial Black Hole Binary Coalescences in the Galactic Halo

We use data from the second science run of the LIGO gravitational-wave detectors to search for the gravitational waves from primordial black hole (PBH) binary coalescence with component masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$. The analysis requires a signal to be found in the data from both LIGO observatories, according to a set of coincidence criteria. No inspiral signals were found. Assuming a spherical halo with core radius 5 kpc extending to 50 kpc containing non-spinning black holes with masses in the range 0.2--$1.0 M_\odot$, we place an observational upper limit on the rate of PBH coalescence of 63 per year per Milky Way halo (MWH) with 90% confidence.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to be submitted to Phys. Rev.