Aeroallergens, Allergic Disease, and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation

Recent research has shown that there are many effects of climate change on aeroallergens and thus allergic diseases in humans. Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration acts as a fertilizer for plant growth. The fertilizing effects of carbon dioxide, as well as increased temperatures from climate change, increase pollen production and the allergen content of pollen grains. In addition, higher temperatures are changing the timing and duration of the pollen season. As regional climates change, plants can move into new areas and changes in atmospheric circulation can blow pollen- and spore-containing dust to new areas, thus introducing people to allergens to which they have not been exposed previously. Climate change also influences the concentrations of airborne pollutants, which alone, and in conjunction with aeroallergens, can exacerbate asthma or other respiratory illnesses. The few epidemiological analyses of meteorological factors, aeroallergens, and allergic diseases demonstrate the pathways through which climate can exert its influence on aeroallergens and allergic diseases. In addition to the need for more research, there is the imperative to take preventive and adaptive actions to address the onset and exacerbation of allergic diseases associated with climate variability and change

Prediction & Model Evaluation for Space-Time Data

Evaluation metrics for prediction error, model selection and model averaging on space-time data are understudied and poorly understood. The absence of independent replication makes prediction ambiguous as a concept and renders evaluation procedures developed for independent data inappropriate for most space-time prediction problems. Motivated by air pollution data collected during California wildfires in 2008, this manuscript attempts a formalization of the true prediction error associated with spatial interpolation. We investigate a variety of cross-validation (CV) procedures employing both simulations and case studies to provide insight into the nature of the estimand targeted by alternative data partition strategies. Consistent with recent best practice, we find that location-based cross-validation is appropriate for estimating spatial interpolation error as in our analysis of the California wildfire data. Interestingly, commonly held notions of bias-variance trade-off of CV fold size do not trivially apply to dependent data, and we recommend leave-one-location-out (LOLO) CV as the preferred prediction error metric for spatial interpolation.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure

Differential respiratory health effects from the 2008 northern California wildfires: A spatiotemporal approach

AbstractWe investigated health effects associated with fine particulate matter during a long-lived, large wildfire complex in northern California in the summer of 2008. We estimated exposure to PM2.5 for each day using an exposure prediction model created through data-adaptive machine learning methods from a large set of spatiotemporal data sets. We then used Poisson generalized estimating equations to calculate the effect of exposure to 24-hour average PM2.5 on cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations and ED visits. We further assessed effect modification by sex, age, and area-level socioeconomic status (SES). We observed a linear increase in risk for asthma hospitalizations (RR=1.07, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.10) per 5µg/m3 increase) and asthma ED visits (RR=1.06, 95% CI=(1.05, 1.07) per 5µg/m3 increase) with increasing PM2.5 during the wildfires. ED visits for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were associated with PM2.5 during the fires (RR=1.02 (95% CI=(1.01, 1.04) per 5µg/m3 increase) and this effect was significantly different from that found before the fires but not after. We did not find consistent effects of wildfire smoke on other health outcomes. The effect of PM2.5 during the wildfire period was more pronounced in women compared to men and in adults, ages 20–64, compared to children and adults 65 or older. We also found some effect modification by area-level median income for respiratory ED visits during the wildfires, with the highest effects observed in the ZIP codes with the lowest median income. Using a novel spatiotemporal exposure model, we found some evidence of differential susceptibility to exposure to wildfire smoke

Landscape of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Heterodimers in Brain Metastases

HER2+ breast cancer patients have an elevated risk of developing brain metastases (BM), despite adjuvant HER2-targeted therapy. The mechanisms underpinning this reduced intracranial efficacy are unclear. We optimised the in situ proximity ligation assay (PLA) for detection of the high-affinity neuregulin-1 receptor, HER2-HER3 (a key target of pertuzumab), in archival tissue samples and developed a pipeline for high throughput extraction of PLA data from fluorescent microscope image files. Applying this to a large BM sample cohort (n = 159) showed that BM from breast, ovarian, lung and kidney cancers have higher HER2-HER3 levels than other primary tumour types (melanoma, colorectal and prostate cancers). HER2 status, and tumour cell membrane expression of pHER2(Y1221/1222) and pHER3(Y1222) were positively, but not exclusively, associated with HER2-HER3 frequency. In an independent cohort (n = 78), BM had significantly higher HER2-HER3 levels than matching primary tumours (p = 0.0002). For patients who had two craniotomy procedures, HER2-HER3 dimer levels were lower in the consecutive lesion (n = 7; p = 0.006). We also investigated the effects of trastuzumab and pertuzumab on five different heterodimers in vitro: HER2-EGFR, HER2-HER4, HER2-HER3, HER3-HER4, HER3-EGFR. Treatment significantly altered the absolute frequencies of individual complexes in SKBr3 and/or MDA-MB-361 cells, but in the presence of neuregulin-1, the overall distribution was not markedly altered, with HER2-HER3 and HER2-HER4 remaining predominant. Together, these findings suggest that markers of HER2 and HER3 expression are not always indicative of dimerization, and that pertuzumab may be less effective at reducing HER2-HER3 dimerization in the context of excess neuregulin

Evaluation of a Heat Vulnerability Index on Abnormally Hot Days: An Environmental Public Health Tracking Study

Background: Extreme hot weather conditions have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but risks are not evenly distributed throughout the population. Previously, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) was created to geographically locate populations with increased vulnerability to heat in metropolitan areas throughout the United States

Leptospirosis in American Samoa – Estimating and Mapping Risk Using Environmental Data

Leptospirosis is the most common bacterial infection transmitted from animals to humans. Infected animals excrete the bacteria in their urine, and humans can become infected through contact with animals or a contaminated environment such as water and soil. Environmental factors are important in determining the risk of human infection, and differ between ecological settings. The wide range of risk factors include high rainfall and flooding; poor sanitation and hygiene; urbanisation and overcrowding; contact with animals (including rodents, livestock, pets, and wildlife); outdoor recreation and ecotourism; and environmental degradation. Predictive risk maps have been produced for many infectious diseases to identify high-risk areas for transmission and guide allocation of public health resources. Maps are particularly useful where disease surveillance and epidemiological data are poor. The objectives of this study were to estimate leptospirosis seroprevalence at geographic locations based on environmental factors, produce a predictive disease risk map for American Samoa, and assess the accuracy of the maps in predicting infection risk. This study demonstrated the value of geographic information systems and disease mapping for identifying environmental risk factors for leptospirosis, and enhancing our understanding of disease transmission. Similar principles could be used to investigate the epidemiology of leptospirosis in other areas

Pan-cancer Alterations of the MYC Oncogene and Its Proximal Network across the Cancer Genome Atlas

Although theMYConcogene has been implicated incancer, a systematic assessment of alterations ofMYC, related transcription factors, and co-regulatoryproteins, forming the proximal MYC network (PMN),across human cancers is lacking. Using computa-tional approaches, we define genomic and proteo-mic features associated with MYC and the PMNacross the 33 cancers of The Cancer Genome Atlas.Pan-cancer, 28% of all samples had at least one ofthe MYC paralogs amplified. In contrast, the MYCantagonists MGA and MNT were the most frequentlymutated or deleted members, proposing a roleas tumor suppressors.MYCalterations were mutu-ally exclusive withPIK3CA,PTEN,APC,orBRAFalterations, suggesting that MYC is a distinct onco-genic driver. Expression analysis revealed MYC-associated pathways in tumor subtypes, such asimmune response and growth factor signaling; chro-matin, translation, and DNA replication/repair wereconserved pan-cancer. This analysis reveals insightsinto MYC biology and is a reference for biomarkersand therapeutics for cancers with alterations ofMYC or the PMN

Cryptic Diversity of African Tigerfish (Genus Hydrocynus) Reveals Palaeogeographic Signatures of Linked Neogene Geotectonic Events

The geobiotic history of landscapes can exhibit controls by tectonics over biotic evolution. This causal relationship positions ecologically specialized species as biotic indicators to decipher details of landscape evolution. Phylogeographic statistics that reconstruct spatio-temporal details of evolutionary histories of aquatic species, including fishes, can reveal key events of drainage evolution, notably where geochronological resolution is insufficient. Where geochronological resolution is insufficient, phylogeographic statistics that reconstruct spatio-temporal details of evolutionary histories of aquatic species, notably fishes, can reveal key events of drainage evolution. This study evaluates paleo-environmental causes of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) based phylogeographic records of tigerfishes, genus Hydrocynus, in order to reconstruct their evolutionary history in relation to landscape evolution across Africa. Strong geographical structuring in a cytochrome b (cyt-b) gene phylogeny confirms the established morphological diversity of Hydrocynus and reveals the existence of five previously unknown lineages, with Hydrocynus tanzaniae sister to a clade comprising three previously unknown lineages (Groups B, C and D) and H. vittatus. The dated phylogeny constrains the principal cladogenic events that have structured Hydrocynus diversity from the late Miocene to the Plio-Pleistocene (ca. 0–16 Ma). Phylogeographic tests reveal that the diversity and distribution of Hydrocynus reflects a complex history of vicariance and dispersals, whereby range expansions in particular species testify to changes to drainage basins. Principal divergence events in Hydrocynus have interfaced closely with evolving drainage systems across tropical Africa. Tigerfish evolution is attributed to dominant control by pulses of geotectonism across the African plate. Phylogenetic relationships and divergence estimates among the ten mtDNA lineages illustrates where and when local tectonic events modified Africa's Neogene drainage. Haplotypes shared amongst extant Hydrocynus populations across northern Africa testify to recent dispersals that were facilitated by late Neogene connections across the Nilo-Sahelian drainage. These events in tigerfish evolution concur broadly with available geological evidence and reveal prominent control by the African Rift System, evident in the formative events archived in phylogeographic records of tigerfish

Mammal responses to global changes in human activity vary by trophic group and landscape

Wildlife must adapt to human presence to survive in the Anthropocene, so it is critical to understand species responses to humans in different contexts. We used camera trapping as a lens to view mammal responses to changes in human activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across 163 species sampled in 102 projects around the world, changes in the amount and timing of animal activity varied widely. Under higher human activity, mammals were less active in undeveloped areas but unexpectedly more active in developed areas while exhibiting greater nocturnality. Carnivores were most sensitive, showing the strongest decreases in activity and greatest increases in nocturnality. Wildlife managers must consider how habituation and uneven sensitivity across species may cause fundamental differences in human–wildlife interactions along gradients of human influence.Peer reviewe

Integrated genomic characterization of oesophageal carcinoma

Oesophageal cancers are prominent worldwide; however, there are few targeted therapies and survival rates for these cancers remain dismal. Here we performed a comprehensive molecular analysis of 164 carcinomas of the oesophagus derived from Western and Eastern populations. Beyond known histopathological and epidemiologic distinctions, molecular features differentiated oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas from oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas resembled squamous carcinomas of other organs more than they did oesophageal adenocarcinomas. Our analyses identified three molecular subclasses of oesophageal squamous cell carcinomas, but none showed evidence for an aetiological role of human papillomavirus. Squamous cell carcinomas showed frequent genomic amplifications of CCND1 and SOX2 and/or TP63, whereas ERBB2, VEGFA and GATA4 and GATA6 were more commonly amplified in adenocarcinomas. Oesophageal adenocarcinomas strongly resembled the chromosomally unstable variant of gastric adenocarcinoma, suggesting that these cancers could be considered a single disease entity. However, some molecular features, including DNA hypermethylation, occurred disproportionally in oesophageal adenocarcinomas. These data provide a framework to facilitate more rational categorization of these tumours and a foundation for new therapies