The global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs

Coral reefs can provide significant coastal protection benefits to people and property. Here we show that the annual expected damages from flooding would double, and costs from frequent storms would triple without reefs. For 100-year storm events, flood damages would increase by 91% to $US 272 billion without reefs. The countries with the most to gain from reef management are Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Mexico, and Cuba; annual expected flood savings exceed$400?M for each of these nations. Sea-level rise will increase flood risk, but substantial impacts could happen from reef loss alone without better near-term management. We provide a global, process-based valuation of an ecosystem service across an entire marine biome at (sub)national levels. These spatially explicit benefits inform critical risk and environmental management decisions, and the expected benefits can be directly considered by governments (e.g., national accounts, recovery plans) and businesses (e.g., insurance).We gratefully acknowledge support from the World Bank Wealth Accounting and Valuation of Ecosystems (WAVES) Program, the Lyda Hill Foundation, Science for Nature and People Partnership, Lloyd’s Tercentenary Research Foundation, a Pew Fellowship in Marine Conservation to MWB, the German International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation (BIA2014-59718- R)

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.A.R., F.J.M. and P.C. acknowledge the support of the Spanish ‘Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad’ under Grants BIA2014-59643-R and BIA2015-70644-R. This work was critically supported by the US Geological Survey under Grant/Cooperative Agreement G15AC00426 and from the US DOD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP Project RC-2644) through the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Dynamic atmospheric corrections (storm surge) are produced by CLS Space Oceanography Division using the Mog2D model from Legos and distributed by Aviso, with support from CNES (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/). Marine data from global reanalysis are provided by IHCantabria and are available for research purposes upon request at [email protected]

Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI): A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean

As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means) and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems) and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI), contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agricultural land use, and conservation, as well as ameliorating socioeconomic conditions

Effects of climate change on exposure to coastal flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study considers and compares several of the most important factors contributing to coastal flooding in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC) while accounting for the variations of these factors with location and time. The study assesses the populations, the land areas and the built capital exposed at present and at the middle and end of the 21st century for a set of scenarios that include both climatic and non-climatic drivers. Climatic drivers include global mean sea level, natural modes of climate variability such as El Niño, natural subsidence, and extreme sea levels resulting from the combination of projected local sea-level rise, storm surges and wave setup. Population is the only human-related driver accounted for in the future. Without adaptation, more than 4 million inhabitants will be exposed to flooding from relative sea-level rise by the end of the century, assuming the 8.5 W m−2 trajectory of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), or RCP8.5. However, the contributions from El Niño events substantially raise the threat in several Pacific-coast countries of the region and sooner than previously anticipated. At the tropical Pacific coastlines, the exposure by the mid-century for an event similar to El Niño 1998 would be comparable to that of the RCP4.5 relative sea-level rise by the end of the century. Furthermore, more than 7.5 million inhabitants, 42,600 km2 and built capital valued at 334 billion USD are currently situated at elevations below the 100-year extreme sea level. With sea levels rising and the population increasing, it is estimated that more than 9 million inhabitants will be exposed by the end of the century for either of the RCPs considered. The spatial distribution of exposure and the comparison of scenarios and timeframes can serve as a guide in future adaptation and risk reduction policies in the region

A recent increase in global wave power as a consequence of oceanic warming

Wind-generated ocean waves drive important coastal processes that determine flooding and erosion. Ocean warming has been one factor affecting waves globally. Most studies have focused on studying parameters such as wave heights, but a systematic, global and long-term signal of climate change in global wave behavior remains undetermined. Here we show that the global wave power, which is the transport of the energy transferred from the wind into sea-surface motion, has increased globally (0.4% per year) and by ocean basins since 1948. We also find long-term correlations and statistical dependency with sea surface temperatures, globally and by ocean sub-basins, particularly between the tropical Atlantic temperatures and the wave power in high south latitudes, the most energetic region globally. Results indicate the upper-ocean warming, a consequence of anthropogenic global warming, is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger. This identifies wave power as a potentially valuable climate change indicator.Funding for this project was partly provided by RISKOADAPT (BIA2017-89401-R) Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities and the ECLISEA project part of the Horizon 2020 ERANET ERA4CS (European Research Area for Climate Services) 2016 Call

Performance assessment of the database downscaled ocean waves (DOW) on Santa Catarina coast, South Brazil

ABSTRACT: This work presents a validation of wave parameters from the new sixty years Downscaled Ocean Waves (DOW) reanalysis database. This study compares quantiles of the Gumbel distribution of Hs (significant wave height) and Tp (peak period) from simulated data with an 11 months' time series obtained from a buoy moored seaward on the Santa Catarina coast. Analysis by means of Gumbel distribution quantiles allows more weight to be given to the highest values of the time series, which are especially important in design projects. The statistical parameters used to verify the fit between the measured and the modeled data included: RMSE, BIAS, Scatter Index and Pearson Correlation Coefficient. Mean direction (9m) validation was conducted qualitatively. The database showed good fit of the mean conditions, especially Hs which was well Reproduced by the wave model. Underestimation of Tp, related mainly to the low spatial and temporal resolution of wind data used to generate waves, highlights this general modeling problem. Based on calculated statistical parameters, DOW data were considered comparable to the values obtained by measurements; however, such data must be cautiously used for extreme events analysis and in areas of bimodal sea conditions, where major deficiencies in the database were observed.The authors are also thankful to the Brazilian government through the Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) and the Agência Brasileira de Cooperação (ABC) for the financial support of this research (within the project Transference of Methodologies and Tools to Support the Brazilian Coastal Management)

Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty

Uniendo ingeniería y ecología: la protección costera basada en ecosistemas

En un contexto de crecientes impactos y riesgos socio-económicos en las costas del planeta, la protección costera basada en ecosistemas surge como un nuevo paradigma que une los principios de protección, sostenibilidad y resiliencia, a la vez que proporciona múltiples beneficios. Este artículo ofrece una perspectiva sobre qué son y cómo se pueden utilizar las defensas naturales en el diseño, planificación y gestión de costas. La política pública muestra un creciente interés por su implementación general y el cuerpo de conocimiento y experiencia alrededor de la también denominada infraestructura ?verde? es creciente, pero aún existen importantes barreras que salvar. Una de ellas es estandarizar su diseño en términos ingenieriles, así como reconocer los aspectos que los diferencian respecto a enfoques tradicionales. La adaptación climática y la reducción de riesgos son áreas en las que su utilización puede ser más significativa, debido a la variedad de servicios que ofrecen. Tanto desde el punto de vista técnico como económico, existen argumentos sólidos para evitar la degradación de los ecosistemas, avanzando su restauración y conservación, como también desde la perspectiva de la defensa de las costas.In a context of increasing socio-economic impacts and risks in the coastal areas of the planet, coastal protection based on ecosystem features becomes a new paradigm that combines the principles of conservation, sustainability and resilience, while providing multiple benefits. This paper provides a perspective on what these are and how they can be used in the design, planning and management of the coastal zones. Policy-makers are calling for further uptake and implementation across the board and the body of knowledge and experience around the socalled ?green? infrastructure is growing, but there are still major barriers for a widespread uptake. One of them is to standardize designs in engineering terms, recognizing the different characteristics compared to traditional engineering solutions. Climate adaptation and risk reduction are areas where its use may be more significant, for the variety of services they offer. Both technically and economically, there are strong arguments to prevent degradation of ecosystems and to advance in their restoration and conservation, as well as from a coastal defense perspective