Prediction Markets, Social Media and Information Efficiency

We consider the impact of breaking news on market prices. We measure activity on the micro-blogging platform Twitter surrounding a unique, newsworthy and identifiable event and investigate subsequent movements of betting prices on the prominent betting exchange, Bet- fair. The event we use is the Bigotgate scandal, which occurred during the 2010 UK General Election campaign. We use recent developments in time series econometric methods to identify and quantify movements in both Twitter activity and Betfair prices, and compare the timings of the two. We find that the response of market prices appears somewhat sluggish and is indicative of market inefficiency, as Betfair prices adjust with a delay, and there is evidence for post-news drift. This slow movement may be explained by the need for corroborating evidence via more traditional forms of media. Once important Tweeters begin to Tweet, including importantly breaking news Twitter feeds from traditional media sources, prices begin to move

Polls to probabilities: comparing prediction markets and opinion polls

Forecasting election outcomes is a hugely popular activity, and not without reason: outcomes can have significant economic impacts, for example on stock prices. As such, it is economically important, as well as of academic interest, to determine the forecasting methods that have historically performed best. However, forecasts are often incompatible, as some are in terms of vote shares, and others are probabilistic outcome forecasts. In this paper we set out an empirical method for transforming opinion poll vote shares into probabilistic forecasts, and then evaluate the performance of prediction markets and opinion polls. We compare along two dimensions: bias and precision. We find that converted opinion polls perform well in terms of bias, and prediction markets on precision

Effectiveness of defatted seed meals from Brassicaceae with or without crude glycerin against black grass ( Alopecurus myosuroides Huds.)

Herbicide resistance has become an increasing problem, and at the same time pesticide usage is declining due to stringent EU pesticide legislation which aims to reduce the impact on environment and human health. For these reasons, new alternative integrated weed management approaches are becoming increasingly relevant. Formulations based on Brassica defatted seed meals (DSMs) and glycerin, have previously been shown to be effective in reducing the germination of lettuce seed. In this work five DSMs, formulated with and without crude glycerin, were chosen for in vitro and glasshouse experiments: i) Brassica nigra, ii) Brassica tournefortii, iii) Eruca sativa, iv) Rapistrum rugosum and v) Sinapis alba. Black-grass (Alopecurus myosuroides), a weed demonstrating extensive herbicide resistance, was used as a target, and the germination inhibition caused on this weed by Brassica defatted seed meals was assessed. In both in vitro and in vivo experiments, the most effective DSM for inhibiting germination of both lettuce and black-grass seeds was the sinigrin containing DSM, Brassica nigra. The aim of the manuscript was to suggest a new high value application for Brassicas derived DSM as a co-products from the vegetable oil production chain. The proposed treatments could represent an interesting and 100% novel natural alternative to the conventional herbicides

Targeting reactive oxygen species (ROS) to combat the age-related loss of muscle mass and function.

The loss of muscle mass and function with age, termed sarcopenia, is an inevitable process, which has a significant impact on quality of life. During ageing we observe a progressive loss of total muscle fibres and a reduction in cross-sectional area of the remaining fibres, resulting in a significant reduction in force output. The mechanisms which underpin sarcopenia are complex and poorly understood, ranging from inflammation, dysregulation of protein metabolism and denervation. However, there is significant evidence to demonstrate that modified ROS generation, redox dis-homeostasis and mitochondrial dysfunction may have an important role to play. Based on this, significant interest and research has interrogated potential ROS-targeted therapies, ranging from nutritional-based interventions such as vitamin E/C, polyphenols (resveratrol) and targeted pharmacological compounds, using molecules such as SS-31 and MitoQ. In this review we evaluate these approaches to target aberrant age-related ROS generation and the impact on muscle mass and function

Late glacial palaeoclimate investigations at King Arthur’s Cave and Sun Hole Cave.

King Arthur’s Cave (Wye Valley) and Sun Hole Cave (Cheddar Gorge) currently provide the earliest dates for a human presence in the British Isles after the Last Glacial Maximum. The earliest phase of activity at these sites has been dated to c. 15.2 to 14.6 thousand years cal. BP, which spans the onset of the Late Glacial Interstadial, a major global climate transition characterised by rapidly warming temperatures. Here we present stable isotope data from horse (Equus ferus) teeth found in the zooarchaeological assemblages at the sites. We also report two new radiocarbon dates on specimens from King Arthur’s Cave. The Equus tooth enamel provides a record of climatic conditions during the animals’ tooth formation. Evidence of human modification of the teeth (cut marks and fractures) chronologically tie these palaeoclimatic records to the earliest post-LGM archaeology at the two sites, thus informing on the climatic and environmental context under which human activity in these areas took place. Results indicate that people were present at the two sites during a period of climatic warming, with temperatures perhaps only marginally colder than present day conditions. However, suboptimal environmental conditions are suggested and may indicate changing vegetation dynamics within the local landscape

Wildtype epidermal growth factor receptor (Egfr) is not required for daily locomotor or masking behavior in mice

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have implicated the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) within the subparaventricular zone as being a major mediator of locomotor and masking behaviors in mice. The results were based on small cohorts of mice homozygous for the hypomorphic Egfr(wa2 )allele on a mixed, genetically uncontrolled background, and on intraventricular infusion of exogenous EGFR ligands. Subsequenlty, a larger study using the same genetically mixed background failed to replicate the original findings. Since both previous approaches were susceptible to experimental artifacts related to an uncontrolled genetic background, we analyzed the locomotor behaviors in Egfr(wa2 )mutant mice on genetically defined, congenic backgrounds. METHODS: Mice carrying the Egfr(wa2 )hypomorphic allele were bred to congenicity by backcrossing greater than ten generations onto C57BL/6J and 129S1/SvImJ genetic backgrounds. Homozygous Egfr(wa2 )mutant and wildtype littermates were evaluated for defects in locomotor and masking behaviors. RESULTS: Mice homozygous for Egfr(wa2 )showed normal daily locomotor activity and masking indistinguishable from wildtype littermates at two light intensities (200–300 lux and 400–500 lux). CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that reduced EGFR activity alone is insufficient to perturb locomotor and masking behaviors in mice. Our results also suggest that other uncontrolled genetic or environmental parameters confounded previous experiments linking EGFR activity to daily locomotor activity and provide a cautionary tale for genetically uncontrolled studies

Sand stirred by chaotic advection

We study the spatial structure of a granular material, N particles subject to inelastic mutual collisions, when it is stirred by a bidimensional smooth chaotic flow. A simple dynamical model is introduced where four different time scales are explicitly considered: i) the Stokes time, accounting for the inertia of the particles, ii) the mean collision time among the grains, iii) the typical time scale of the flow, and iv) the inverse of the Lyapunov exponent of the chaotic flow, which gives a typical time for the separation of two initially close parcels of fluid. Depending on the relative values of these different times a complex scenario appears for the long-time steady spatial distribution of particles, where clusters of particles may or not appear.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

The Will to Prevail: Inside the Legal Battle to Save Sweet Briar

Part I provides an in-depth factual overview, beginning with the Sweet Briar College\u27s founding in the early 1900s. The commentary then turns to the controversial decision to close and discusses the facts and legal theories of the case, the decisions by the circuit court and the Supreme Court of Virginia, and the eventual settlement that kept the school alive. In Part II, the discussion shifts to the landmark nature of this case, not only for Sweet Briar College, but also for other Virginia colleges and non-profits around the country. The essay analyzes the legal questions arising from the case, including whether a Virginia corporation could also be a trustee, and, what were the Board\u27s legal obligations in this case

Radiocarbon chronology and environmental context of Last Glacial Maximum human occupation in Switzerland

Central Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was dominated by polar desert and steppe-tundra biomes. Despite this, a human presence during this time period is evident at several locations across the region, including in Switzerland, less than 50 km from the Alpine ice sheet margin. It has been hypothesised that such human activity may have been restricted to brief periods of climatic warming within the LGM, but chronological information from many of these sites are currently too poorly resolved to corroborate this. Here we present a revised chronology of LGM human occupation in Switzerland. AMS radiocarbon dating of cut-marked reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) bones from the sites of Kastelhöhle-Nord and Y-Höhle indicates human occupation of Switzerland was most likely restricted to between 23,400 and 22,800 cal. BP. This timeframe corresponds to Greenland Interstadial 2, a brief warming phase, supporting the hypothesis that human presence was facilitated by favourable climatic episodes. Carbon, nitrogen and sulphur stable isotope analysis of the fauna provides palaeoenvironmental information for this time period. These findings contribute to our understanding of human activity in ice-marginal environments and have implications for understanding cultural connections across central Europe during the LGM