Understanding and neutralizing the expense prediction bias : the role of accessibility, typicality, and skewness

This work was funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, True North Communications Inc. Faculty Research Funds at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and the Mays Business School Dean’s Office.Consumers display an expense prediction bias in which they underpredict their future spending. The authors propose this bias occurs in large part because: 1) consumers base their predictions on typical expenses that come to mind easily during prediction, 2) taken together, typical expenses lead to a prediction near the mode of a consumer’s expense distribution rather than the mean, and 3) expenses display positive skew with mode < mean. Accordingly, the authors also propose that prompting consumers to consider reasons why their expenses might be different than usual increases predictions – and therefore prediction accuracy – by bringing atypical expenses to mind. Ten studies (N = 6,044) provide support for this account of the bias and the “atypical intervention” developed to neutralize it.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Social networks and research output

We study how knowledge about the social network of an individual researcher - as embodied in his coauthor relations - helps us in developing a more accurate prediction of his future productivity. We find that incorporating information about coauthor networks leads to a modest improvement in the accuracy of forecasts on individual output, over and above what we can predict based on the knowledge of past individual output. Second, we find that the informativeness of networks dissipates over the lifetime of a researcher's career. This suggests that the signalling content of the network is quantitatively more important than the flow of ideas

Stable, but still reactive – investigations on the effects of Lewis acid binding on copper nitrene intermediates

Copper nitrenes are proposed as reactive intermediates in a number of copper mediated aziridination and amination reactions. However, the isolation and characterization of such intermediates have proved challenging because of their transient nature. One successful approach for the stabilization of the copper-nitrene cores is the employment of a redox innocent Lewis acid (LA) like Sc3+. We herein report the stabilization of two transient copper nitrene species 3 and 4 in the absence of LAs by employing electronegative −CF3 and −NO2 groups in the nitrene substituent. Detailed investigations of the spectroscopic properties of 3 and 4 by theoretical and experimental methods, and a comparison of their reactivities in presence and absence of LAs provide some vital insights into the effect of LAs on the geometric and electronic structures of the copper nitrenes

A Pseudotetrahedral Terminal Oxoiron(IV) Complex: Mechanistic Promiscuity in C−H Bond Oxidation Reactions

S=2 oxoiron(IV) species act as reactive intermediates in the catalytic cycle of nonheme iron oxygenases. The few available synthetic S=2 FeIV=O complexes known to date are often limited to trigonal bipyramidal and very rarely to octahedral geometries. Herein we describe the generation and characterization of an S=2 pseudotetrahedral FeIV=O complex 2 supported by the sterically demanding 1,4,7-tri-tert-butyl-1,4,7-triazacyclononane ligand. Complex 2 is a very potent oxidant in hydrogen atom abstraction (HAA) reactions with large non-classical deuterium kinetic isotope effects, suggesting hydrogen tunneling contributions. For sterically encumbered substrates, direct HAA is impeded and an alternative oxidative asynchronous proton-coupled electron transfer mechanism prevails, which is unique within the nonheme oxoiron community. The high reactivity and the similar spectroscopic parameters make 2 one of the best electronic and functional models for a biological oxoiron(IV) intermediate of taurine dioxygenase (TauD-J).Peer Reviewe

Functionalized micro-capillary film for the rapid at-line analysis of IgG aggregates in a cell culture bioreactor.

A micro-capillary film has been developed that offers the potential for an at-line analytical tool for rapid aggregate analysis during biopharmaceutical antibody production. A non-porous walled micro-capillary film (NMCF) with cation exchange functionality was demonstrated to act as a chromatography medium that could be operated with high linear fluid velocities and was highly resistant to blockage by entrained particulates, including cells. The NMCF containing 19 parallel microcapillaries was prepared using a melt extrusion process from poly(ethylene-vinyl alcohol) copolymer (EVOH). The NMCF-EVOH was modified to have cation-exchange functionality (NMCF-EVOH-SP) and shown to differentially bind monomer and aggregated species of IgG antibody directly from a bioreactor. The use of NMCF-EVOH-SP to quantify aggregate concentrations in monoclonal antibody preparations in less than 20 minutes was demonstrated.The authors would like to thank the EPSRC for the provision of a CASE Award. This study was sponsored by MedImmune, the global biologics R&D arm of AstraZeneca.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Taylor & Francis via http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19420862.2015.106536

A comparison of dimensional and discrete models for the representation of perceived and induced affect in response to short musical sounds

IntroductionIn musical affect research, there is considerable discussion on the best method to represent affective response. This discussion mainly revolves around the dimensional (valence, tension arousal, energy arousal) and discrete (anger, fear, sadness, happiness, tenderness) models of affect. Here, we compared these models' ability to capture self-reported affect in response to short, affectively ambiguous sounds.MethodsIn two online experiments (n1 = 263, n2 = 152), participants rated perceived and induced affect in response to single notes (Exp 1) and chromatic scales (Exp 2), which varied across instrument family and pitch register. Additionally, participants completed questionnaires measuring pre-existing mood, trait empathy, Big-Five personality, musical sophistication, and musical preferences.ResultsRater consistency and agreement were high across all affect scales. Correlation and principal component analyses showed that two dimensions or two affect categories captured most of the variation in affective response. Canonical correlation and regression analyses also showed that energy arousal varied in a manner that was not captured by discrete affect ratings. Furthermore, all sources of individual differences were moderately correlated with all affect scales, particularly pre-existing mood and dimensional affect.DiscussionWe conclude that when it comes to single notes and chromatic scales, the dimensions of valence and energy arousal best capture the perceived and induced affective response to affectively ambiguous sounds, although the role of individual differences should also be considered

Efficient Message Passing Interface (MPI) for Parallel Computing on Clusters of Workstations

Parallel computing on clusters of workstations and personal computers has very high potential, since it leverages existing hardware and software. Parallel programming environments offer the user a convenient way to express parallel computation and communication. In fact, recently, a Message Passing Interface (MPI) has been proposed as an industrial standard for writing "portable" message-passing parallel programs. The communication part of MPI consists of the usual point-to-point communication as well as collective communication. However, existing implementations of programming environments for clusters are built on top of a point-to-point communication layer (send and receive) over local area networks (LANs) and, as a result, suffer from poor performance in the collective communication part. In this paper, we present an efficient design and implementation of the collective communication part in MPI that is optimized for clusters of workstations. Our system consists of two main components: the MPI-CCL layer that includes the collective communication functionality of MPI and a User-level Reliable Transport Protocol (URTP) that interfaces with the LAN Data-link layer and leverages the fact that the LAN is a broadcast medium. Our system is integrated with the operating system via an efficient kernel extension mechanism that we developed. The kernel extension significantly improves the performance of our implementation as it can handle part of the communication overhead without involving user space. We have implemented our system on a collection of IBM RS/6000 workstations con- nected via a lOMbit Ethernet LAN. Our performance measurements are taken from typical scientific programs that run in a parallel mode by means of the MPI. The hypothesis behind our design is that system's performance will be bounded by interactions between the kernel and user space rather than by the bandwidth delivered by the LAN Data-Link Layer. Our results indicate that the performance of our MPI Broadcast (on top of Ethernet) is about twice as fast as a recently published software implementation of broadcast on top of ATM

Versatile strategy for homogeneous drying patterns of dispersed particles

After spilling coffee, a tell-tale stain is left by the drying droplet. This universal phenomenon, known as the coffee ring effect, is observed independent of the dispersed material. However, for many technological processes such as coating techniques and ink-jet printing a uniform particle deposition is required and the coffee ring effect is a major drawback. Here, we present a simple and versatile strategy to achieve homogeneous drying patterns using surface-modified particle dispersions. High-molecular weight surface-active polymers that physisorb onto the particle surfaces provide enhanced steric stabilization and prevent accumulation and pinning at the droplet edge. In addition, in the absence of free polymer in the dispersion, the surface modification strongly enhances the particle adsorption to the air/liquid interface, where they experience a thermal Marangoni backflow towards the apex of the drop, leading to uniform particle deposition after drying. The method is independent of particle shape and applicable to a variety of commercial pigment particles and different dispersion media, demonstrating the practicality of this work for everyday processes

Proposal for the development of 3D Vertically Integrated Pattern Recognition Associative Memory (VIPRAM)

Future particle physics experiments looking for rare processes will have no choice but to address the demanding challenges of fast pattern recognition in triggering as detector hit density becomes significantly higher due to the high luminosity required to produce the rare process. The authors propose to develop a 3D Vertically Integrated Pattern Recognition Associative Memory (VIPRAM) chip for HEP applications, to advance the state-of-the-art for pattern recognition and track reconstruction for fast triggering

“We Used to Say Rats Fell from the Sky After a Flood:” Temporary Recovery of Muskrat Following Ice Jams in the Peace-Athabasca Delta

Elders and Indigenous land users in the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) have observed a dramatic decline in the relative abundance of muskrat in recent decades (~1935–2014). The main explanation for the decline has been reduction in suitable habitat as a result of decades with reduced frequency of ice-jam flooding on the Peace River. Under favourable conditions, ice jams can cause flooding of perched basins within the PAD that would otherwise receive no recharge from floodwaters. To examine whether abundance of muskrat in the PAD is driven by flooding, we tested the predictions that the density of muskrat (estimated by winter counts of houses) (1) was inversely related to the number of years since major ice jam floods and (2) increased with water depth. An ongoing collaborative monitoring program initiated in 2011, combined with analysis of data from past surveys (1973–2015), allowed Indigenous land users and scientists to document a 10 to 100-fold increase in the density of muskrat houses in 24 basins, over the two years following ice-jam flood events in the PAD. During 1973–2015, in the periods between major floods, density of houses dropped by approximately 79% for every year after a significant flood. In 27 basins surveyed from 2011 to 2015, density of muskrat houses increased by two orders of magnitude in the two years following a flood in the spring of 2014. Density of muskrat houses had a non-linear relationship with estimated depth of water at the time of fall freeze-up; the highest densities of muskrat houses were in basins with about 60 – 250 cm of water at the time of freeze-up. The depth of snow at the time of surveys did not have a strong relationship with the density of muskrat houses. However, few houses were counted in basins with more than 20 cm of snow, likely because deeper snow made it more difficult to conduct surveys and spot houses. Factors other than an increase in the depth of water at fall freeze-up may provide the mechanisms by which flooding affects muskrat. Density of muskrat houses is clearly tied to ice-jam flooding in the PAD. However, the local mechanisms by which floods affect muskrat are best understood by Indigenous land users and remain poorly understood by Western science. Indigenous peoples continue to regard muskrat as an indicator of ecological and cultural health of the PAD. This study highlights the value of consistent ecological monitoring that includes Indigenous knowledge.Les aînés et les utilisateurs des terres autochtones du delta des rivières de la Paix et Athabasca ont observé une baisse draconienne de l’abondance du rat musqué au cours des dernières décennies (~1935-2014). La principale explication du déclin est la diminution d’abris convenables, et ce, en raison de plusieurs décennies marquées par la fréquence réduite d’inondations causées par des embâcles dans la rivière de la Paix. Dans des conditions favorables, les embâcles peuvent causer l’inondation des bassins perchés au sein du delta des rivières de la Paix et Athabasca qui autrement ne recevraient pas de recharge des eaux de crue. Afin d’examiner si l’abondance du rat musqué dans le delta des rivières de la Paix et Athabasca est favorisée par les inondations, nous avons testé des prévisions selon lesquelles la densité du rat musqué (estimée par le nombre d’abris en hiver) 1) était inversement liée au nombre d’années depuis les dernières importantes inondations causées par des embâcles et 2) augmentait avec la profondeur de l’eau. Un programme collaboratif de suivi continu lancé en 2011, combiné à l’analyse de données des relevés antérieurs (1973-2015), a permis aux utilisateurs des terres autochtones et aux scientifiques de multiplier de 10 à 100 fois la densité d’abris du rat musqué dans 24 bassins, au cours des deux années suivant des événementsd’inondation causés par des embâcles dans le delta des rivières de la Paix et Athabasca. Entre 1973 et 2015, durant les périodes se situant entre les inondations importantes, la densité d’abris a diminué d’environ 79 % chaque année suivant une inondation importante. Dans 27 bassins sondés entre 2011 et 2015, la densité d’abris du rat musqué a augmenté de deux ordres de grandeur au cours des deux années ayant suivi une inondation survenue au printemps de 2014. La densité d’abris du rat musqué avait une relation non linéaire avec la profondeur de l’eau estimée au moment de la prise des glaces en automne; les plus fortes densités d’abris du rat musqué se trouvaient dans les bassins ayant de 60 à 250 cm d’eau au moment de la prise des glaces. La profondeur de la neige au moment des relevés n’avait pas de relation solide avec la densité d’abris du rat musqué. Cependant, nous avons compté peu d’abris dans les bassins comptant plus de 20 cm de neige, probablement parce qu’il était plus difficile d’effectuer des relevés et de trouver les abris dans la neige plus épaisse. Des facteurs autres que l’augmentation de la profondeur de l’eau au moment de la prise des glaces en automne pourraient fournir les mécanismes par lesquels les inondations se répercutent sur les rats musqués. La densité d’abris du rat musqué est manifestement liée aux inondations causées par des embâcles dans le delta des rivières de la Paix et Athabasca. Toutefois, les utilisateurs des terres autochtones comprennent mieux les mécanismes locaux par lesquels les inondations se répercutent sur les rats musqués, tandis qu’ils demeurent mal compris par la science occidentale. Les peuples autochtones continuent de considérer le rat musqué comme un indicateur de la santé écologique et culturelle du delta des rivières de la Paix et Athabasca. Cette étude fait ressortir la valeur d’un suivi écologique constant qui tient compte des connaissances autochtones