A Tale of Two Continents: Factors Influencing Students to Major in Mathematics

Students consider the selection of their college major as one of the critical decisions in their life. Literature suggests that influencing factors can differ based on the academic discipline, student status (freshmen, declared, etc.), and geography. We select two countries, the United States and Sri Lanka, with contrasting education systems and study the factors which may have influenced students to become mathematics majors. We consider the effect of ten influencing factors, which form three clusters, namely, “Career-Related”, “Math-Related”, and “Other”. The study first reveals that the factors and clusters significantly affect student decisions in the two countries. One of the critical conclusions of the study is how the “MathRelated” cluster influences students’ decisions significantly more than the other two clusters. We also look at the difference in the impact of specific influencing factors on the two populations and find that factors related to the nature of mathematics influence US students more than Sri Lankan students. The study’s conclusions should benefit teachers and recruiters when guiding future math majors

Early detection of cholera epidemics to support control in fragile states: estimation of delays and potential epidemic sizes.

BACKGROUND: Cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states. Rapid detection and response to small cholera clusters is key for efficient control before an epidemic propagates. To understand the capacity for early response in fragile states, we investigated delays in outbreak detection, investigation, response, and laboratory confirmation, and we estimated epidemic sizes. We assessed predictors of delays, and annual changes in response time. METHODS: We compiled a list of cholera outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states from 2008 to 2019. We searched for peer-reviewed articles and epidemiological reports. We evaluated delays from the dates of symptom onset of the primary case, and the earliest dates of outbreak detection, investigation, response, and confirmation. Information on how the outbreak was alerted was summarized. A branching process model was used to estimate epidemic size at each delay. Regression models were used to investigate the association between predictors and delays to response. RESULTS: Seventy-six outbreaks from 34 countries were included. Median delays spanned 1-2 weeks: from symptom onset of the primary case to presentation at the health facility (5 days, IQR 5-5), detection (5 days, IQR 5-6), investigation (7 days, IQR 5.8-13.3), response (10 days, IQR 7-18), and confirmation (11 days, IQR 7-16). In the model simulation, the median delay to response (10 days) with 3 seed cases led to a median epidemic size of 12 cases (upper range, 47) and 8% of outbreaks ≥ 20 cases (increasing to 32% with a 30-day delay to response). Increased outbreak size at detection (10 seed cases) and a 10-day median delay to response resulted in an epidemic size of 34 cases (upper range 67 cases) and < 1% of outbreaks < 20 cases. We estimated an annual global decrease in delay to response of 5.2% (95% CI 0.5-9.6, p = 0.03). Outbreaks signaled by immediate alerts were associated with a reduction in delay to response of 39.3% (95% CI 5.7-61.0, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: From 2008 to 2019, median delays from symptom onset of the primary case to case presentation and to response were 5 days and 10 days, respectively. Our model simulations suggest that depending on the outbreak size (3 versus 10 seed cases), in 8 to 99% of scenarios, a 10-day delay to response would result in large clusters that would be difficult to contain. Improving the delay to response involves rethinking the integration at local levels of event-based detection, rapid diagnostic testing for cluster validation, and integrated alert, investigation, and response

Kidney damage biomarkers detect acute kidney injury but only functional markers predict mortality after paraquat ingestion

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common following paraquat ingestion. The diagnostic performance of injury biomarkers was investigated in serial blood and urine samples from patients from 5 Sri Lankan hospitals. Functional AKI was diagnosed using serum creatinine (sCr) or serum cystatin C (sCysC). The 95th centile in healthy subjects defined the urinary biomarker cutoffs for diagnosing structural AKI. 50 poisoned patients provided 2 or more specimens, 76% developed functional AKI [AKIN stage 1 (n=12), 2 (n=7) or 3 (n=19)]; 19/26 patients with AKIN stage 2/3 also had functional AKI by sCysC criteria (≥50% increase). Urinary cystatin C (uCysC), clusterin (uClu) and NGAL (uNGAL) increased within 24h of ingestion compared with NoAKI patients and healthy controls. Each biomarker demonstrated moderate diagnostic utility [AUC-ROC: uCysC 0.79, uNGAL 0.79, uClu 0.68] for diagnosis of functional AKI at 16h. Death occurred only in subjects with functional AKI. Structural biomarker-based definitions detected more AKI than did sCr or sCysC, but did not independently predict death. Renal injury biomarkers did not add clinical value to patients who died rapidly due to multi-organ failure. Use of injury biomarkers within 16-24h may guide early intervention for reno-protection in less severe paraquat poisoning.NHMRC project grant 101177

Post-Disaster Housing Reconstruction in Sri Lanka: What Methodology?

Research methodology is the procedural framework within which the research is conducted. This includes the overall approach to a problem that could be put into practice in a research process, from the theoretical underpinning to the collection and analysis of data. Choice of methodology depends on the primary drivers: topic to be researched and the specific research questions. Hence, methodological perspectives of managing stakeholder expectations of PDHR context are composed of research philosophies, research strategy, research design, and research techniques. This research belonged to social constructivism or interpretivism within a philosophical continuum. The nature of the study was more toward subjectivism where human behavior favored voluntary stance. Ontological, methodological, epistemological, and axiological positioning carried the characteristics of idealism, ideographic, anti-positivism, and value laden, respectively. Data collection comprises two phases, preliminary and secondary. Exploratory interviews with construction experts in the United Kingdom and Sri Lanka were carried out to refine the interview questions and identify the case studies. Case study interviews during the secondary phase took place in Sri Lanka. Data collected at the preliminary stage were used to assess the attributes of power, legitimacy/proximity, and urgency of stakeholders to the project using Stakeholder Circle™ software. Moreover, the data collected at secondary phase via case studies will be analyzed with NVivo 8. This article aims to discuss these methodological underpinnings in detail applied in a post-disaster housing reconstruction context in Sri Lanka

Inference is bliss: Simulation for power estimation for an observational study of a cholera outbreak intervention.

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of ring vaccination and other outbreak-containment interventions during severe and rapidly-evolving epidemics presents a challenge for the choice of a feasible study design, and subsequently, for the estimation of statistical power. To support a future evaluation of a case-area targeted intervention against cholera, we have proposed a prospective observational study design to estimate the association between the strength of implementation of this intervention across several small outbreaks (occurring within geographically delineated clusters around primary and secondary cases named 'rings') and its effectiveness (defined as a reduction in cholera incidence). We describe here a strategy combining mathematical modelling and simulation to estimate power for a prospective observational study. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The strategy combines stochastic modelling of transmission and the direct and indirect effects of the intervention in a set of rings, with a simulation of the study analysis on the model results. We found that targeting 80 to 100 rings was required to achieve power ≥80%, using a basic reproduction number of 2.0 and a dispersion coefficient of 1.0-1.5. CONCLUSIONS: This power estimation strategy is feasible to implement for observational study designs which aim to evaluate outbreak containment for other pathogens in geographically or socially defined rings

Impact of culture towards disaster risk reduction

Number of natural disasters has risen sharply worldwide making the risk of disasters a global concern. These disasters have created significant losses and damages to humans, economy and society. Despite the losses and damages created by disasters, some individuals and communities do not attached much significance to natural disasters. Risk perception towards a disaster not only depends on the danger it could create but also the behaviour of the communities and individuals that is governed by their culture. Within this context, this study examines the relationship between culture and disaster risk reduction (DRR). A comprehensive literature review is used for the study to evaluate culture, its components and to analyse a series of case studies related to disaster risk. It was evident from the study that in some situations, culture has become a factor for the survival of the communities from disasters where as in some situations culture has acted as a barrier for effective DRR activities. The study suggests community based DRR activities as a mechanism to integrate with culture to effectively manage disaster risk

Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.

Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38-3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.3), respectively

Duchenne muscular dystrophy from brain to muscle: The role of brain dystrophin isoforms in motor functions

Brain function and its effect on motor performance in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an emerging concept. The present study explored how cumulative dystrophin isoform loss, age, and a corticosteroid treatment affect DMD motor outcomes. A total of 133 genetically confirmed DMD patients from Sri Lanka were divided into two groups based on whether their shorter dystrophin isoforms (Dp140, Dp116, and Dp71) were affected: Group 1, containing patients with Dp140, Dp116, and Dp71 affected (n = 98), and Group 2, containing unaffected patients (n = 35). A subset of 52 patients (Group 1, n = 38; Group 2, n = 14) was followed for up to three follow-ups performed in an average of 28-month intervals. The effect of the cumulative loss of shorter dystrophin isoforms on the natural history of DMD was analyzed. A total of 74/133 (56%) patients encountered developmental delays, with 66/74 (89%) being in Group 1 and 8/74 (11%) being in Group 2 (p \u3c 0.001). Motor developmental delays were predominant. The hip and knee muscular strength, according to the Medical Research Council (MRC) scale and the North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) activities, “standing on one leg R”, “standing on one leg L”, and “walk”, declined rapidly in Group 1 (p \u3c 0.001 In the follow-up analysis, Group 1 patients became wheelchair-bound at a younger age than those of Group 2 (p = 0.004). DMD motor dysfunction is linked to DMD mutations that affect shorter dystrophin isoforms. When stratifying individuals for clinical trials, considering the DMD mutation site and its impact on a shorter dystrophin isoform is crucial