The impact of early massive mergers on the chemical evolution of Milky Way-like galaxies: insights from NIHAO-UHD simulations

Recent observations of the Milky Way (MW) found an unexpected steepening of the star-forming gas metallicity gradient around the time of the Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE) merger event. Here we investigate the influence of early ($t_{\mathrm{merger}}\lesssim5$ Gyr) massive ($M_{\mathrm{gas}}^{\mathrm{merger}}/M_{\mathrm{gas}}^{\mathrm{main}}(t_{\mathrm{merger}})\gtrsim10\%$) merger events such as the Gaia-Sausage Enceladus merger in the MW on the evolution of the cold gas metallicity gradient. We use the NIHAO-UHD suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of MW-mass galaxies to study the frequency of massive early mergers and their detailed impact on the morphology and chemistry of the gaseous disks. We find a strong steepening of the metallicity gradient at early times for all four galaxies in our sample which is caused by a sudden increase in the cold gas disk size (up to a factor of 2) in combination with the supply of un-enriched gas ($\sim0.75$ dex lower compared to the main galaxy) by the merging dwarf galaxies. The mergers mostly affect the galaxy outskirts and lead to an increase in cold gas surface density of up to 200% outside of $\sim8$ kpc. The addition of un-enriched gas breaks the self-similar enrichment of the inter-stellar-medium and causes a dilution of the cold gas in the outskirts of the galaxies. The accreted stars and the ones formed later out of the accreted gas inhabit distinct tracks offset to lower [$\alpha$/Fe] and [Fe/H] values compared to the main galaxy's stars. We find that such mergers can contribute significantly to the formation of a second, low-$\alpha$ sequence as is observed in the MW.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, accepted by MNRA

Why does the Milky Way have a bar?

There is no doubt that the Milky Way is a barred galaxy; however, factors that establish its prominent morphology remain largely elusive and poorly comprehended. In this work, we attempt to constrain the history of the MW by tracing the present-day parameters and evolution of a set of MW and M31 analogues from the TNG50 cosmological simulations. We find that the strength of bars at $z=0$ correlates well not only with the total mass build-up of galaxies but, more crucially, with the time of rapid onset of stellar discs. Discs of strongly barred galaxies form early ($z \gtrsim 2-3$), compared to weakly barred and non-barred galaxies ($z \approx 1-1.5$). Although we are cautious to draw ultimate conclusions about the governing factor of discs formation due to the complexity and correlations between different physical phenomena~(dark matter mass growth, gas accretion rate, mergers and others) affecting galaxy growth, the observed morphological diversity of galaxies can be tentatively explained by a substantial variation in the gas angular momentum around proto-galaxies already at $z\approx 3-5$; in such a way, early discs with the strongest bars at $z=0$ formed from gas with the largest angular momentum. By comparing the formation time scales of discs of barred galaxies in the TNG50 sample, we suggest that the MW has a strong bar ($0.35<A_2<0.6$) and that its stellar disc started to dominate over the spheroidal component already at $z \approx 2$, with a mass of $\approx 1 \pm 0.5 \times 10^{10} M_\odot$. We, therefore, conclude that the presence of a strong bar in the MW is a natural manifestation of the early formation of the stellar disc, which made possible bursty but highly efficient star formation at high redshift.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, submitted to MNRA

Chemical clocks and their time zones: understanding the [s/Mg]--age relation with birth radii

The relative enrichment of s-process to $\alpha$-elements ([s/$\alpha$]) has been linked with age, providing a potentially useful avenue in exploring the Milky Way's chemical evolution. However, the age--[s/$\alpha$] relationship is non-universal, with dependencies on metallicity and current location in the Galaxy. In this work, we examine these chemical clock tracers across birth radii ($\rm \text{R}_\text{birth}$), recovering the inherent trends between the variables. We derive $\rm \text{R}_\text{birth}$ and explore the [s/$\alpha$]--age--$\rm \text{R}_\text{birth}$ relationship for 36,652 APOGEE DR17 red giant and 24,467 GALAH DR3 main sequence turnoff and subgiant branch disk stars using [Ce/Mg], [Ba/Mg], and [Y/Mg]. We discover that the age--[s/Mg] relation is strongly dependent on birth location in the Milky Way, with stars born in the inner disk having the weakest correlation. This is congruent with the Galaxy's initially weak, negative [s/Mg] radial gradient, which becomes positive and steep with time. We show that the non-universal relations of chemical clocks is caused by their fundamental trends with $\rm \text{R}_\text{birth}$ over time, and suggest that the tight age--[s/Mg] relation obtained with solar-like stars is due to similar $\rm \text{R}_\text{birth}$ for a given age. Our results are put into context with a Galactic chemical evolution model, where we demonstrate the need for data-driven nucleosynthetic yields.Comment: submitted to MNRA

Tracing Birth Properties of Stars with Abundance Clustering

To understand the formation and evolution of the Milky Way disk, we must connect its current properties to its past. We explore hydrodynamical cosmological simulations to investigate how the chemical abundances of stars might be linked to their origins. Using hierarchical clustering of abundance measurements in two Milky Way-like simulations with distributed and steady star formation histories, we find that groups of chemically similar stars comprise different groups in birth place (R birth) and time (age). Simulating observational abundance errors (0.05 dex), we find that to trace distinct groups of (R birth, age) requires a large vector of abundances. Using 15 element abundances (Fe, O, Mg, S, Si, C, P, Mn, Ne, Al, N, V, Ba, Cr, Co), up to ≈10 groups can be defined with ≈25% overlap in (R birth, age). We build a simple model to show that in the context of these simulations, it is possible to infer a star's age and R birth from abundances with precisions of ±0.06 Gyr and ±1.17 kpc, respectively. We find that abundance clustering is ineffective for a third simulation, where low-α stars form distributed in the disk and early high-α stars form more rapidly in clumps that sink toward the Galactic center as their constituent stars evolve to enrich the interstellar medium. However, this formation path leads to large age dispersions across the [α/Fe]-[Fe/H] plane, which is inconsistent with the Milky Way's observed properties. We conclude that abundance clustering is a promising approach toward charting the history of our Galaxy

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16–20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement

Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine