Los procesos de formación de voto de los electores. Estudio de caso sobre renovación electoral en España del Partido Popular y del Partido Socialista (2010-2015)

Desde la llegada de la crisis económica de 2008, los sistemas políticos europeos no han sido los mismos. La crisis de las estructuras institucionales partidistas, con nuevos agentes fuera del establishment (antieuropeístas, euroescépticos, extrema derecha proteccionista… etc.) es consecuencia de los malos resultados de las dos familias clásicas: socialdemócratas y conservadores. En nuestro país, los efectos de la recesión han desalojado del poder al Gobierno de Rodríguez Zapatero y han costado numerosos votantes al Partido Popular. La confianza en las instituciones por parte de los ciudadanos ha disminuido enormemente; también las perspectivas de los mismos ante las respuestas de los partidos, y las nuevas necesidades económicas consecuencia del aumento del desempleo y de la pobreza en las antiguas clases medias. Esta tesis se centra en el nuevo panorama electoral de nuestro país, resultado de la crisis económica internacional, pero también de fuertes procesos internos que se habían estado gestando durante los últimos años, como el movimiento 15-M. Para ello, nuestro objeto de estudio apunta a estudiar los cambios del comportamiento electoral de los españoles, tras las transformaciones en el sistema de partidos de los últimos años (2010-2015). Más concretamente, en la renovación de voto, es decir, la confianza por la cual los votantes deciden apoyar de nuevo al partido cuatro años después. El estudio de la participación electoral en nuestro país es extensa y muy multidisciplinar. La proliferación de experiencias académicas y los análisis en revistas de investigación dan cuenta del interés por el comportamiento electoral de los votantes. Ahora bien, las investigaciones existentes no deberían ser concluyentes: al igual que los sistemas de partidos experimentan cambios estructurales, también las preferencias de los votantes sufren transformaciones. La investigación sociológica debe actualizarse continuamente para ir de la mano de los cambios que se produzcan en la esfera electoral..

La configuración de las agendas mediáticas en elecciones de segundo orden. Cobertura informativa y concurrencia electoral en las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo de mayo de 2019

La concurrencia electoral con los comicios locales y regionales en España nos ha permitido estudiar la interacción de las diferentes agendas y si la cobertura informativa que los diferentes medios de comunicación realizaron de las elecciones al Parlamento Europeo ayudó a ofrecer una información suficiente y ponderada que promoviera la participación electoral. Dentro del marco de estudio de la teoría de la Agenda-Setting y la Espiral del Silencio, hemos desarrollado un análisis de contenido con una amplia muestra (374 piezas informativas en 5 cabeceras de prensa durante la campaña) para intentar comprobar de qué manera los medios de comunicación consideraron estas elecciones como de primer o segundo orden. En línea con investigaciones previas, hemos detectado que el volumen de los contenidos ha aumentado considerablemente, si bien el tono y la nacionalización de los contenidos sigue en parámetros similares (enmarcados dentro de lo que se ha denominando como “política doméstica”)

El efecto de la exposición a los sondeos preelectorales en el comportamiento de los votantes en las elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía de 2018

Los sondeos preelectorales se han convertido en una herramienta de comunicación política para partidos políticos y medios de comunicación. Este trabajo ha pretendido estudiar el efecto de la exposición a las encuestas en el comportamiento electoral de los votantes para las elecciones autonómicas de Andalucía de 2018. Los muchos sondeos publicados por los medios de comunicación ofrecieron unas expectativas excesivamente optimistas para el Partido Socialista y generaron una situación de alta competitividad entre partidos conservadores (Partido Popular, Ciudadanos y Vox), lo que afectó a las preferencias electorales de los votantes. Mediante un modelo estadístico en dos fases, hemos comprobado que se produjo una movilización en el electorado socialista dada la probabilidad de una mayoría sólida; así como que los votantes conservadores se declinaron por realizar un voto ideológico (Vox) frente a un voto estratégico (Partido Popular), debido a una falta de mayorías alternativas al gobierno socialista de Susana Díaz.Els sondeigs preelectorals han esdevingut una eina de comunicació política per a partits polítics i mitjans de comunicació. Aquest treball ha pretès estudiar l'efecte de l'exposició a les enquestes en el comportament electoral dels votants per a les eleccions autonòmiques d'Andalusia de 2018. Els nombrosos sondeigs publicats pels mitjans de comunicació van oferir unes expectatives excessivament optimistes per al Partit Socialista i van generar una situació d'alta competitivitat entre partits conservadors (Partit Popular, Ciutadans i Vox), la qual cosa va afectar les preferències electorals dels votants. Mitjançant un model estadístic en dues fases, hem comprovat que es va produir una mobilització en l'electorat socialista donada la probabilitat d'una majoria sòlida; així com que els votants conservadors es van declinar per realitzar un vot ideològic (Vox) enfront d'un vot estratègic (Partit Popular), a causa d'una falta de majories alternatives al govern socialista de Susana Díaz.Pre-election polls have become a tool of political communication for political parties and the media. This study has tried to study the effect of exposure to polls on the electoral behavior of voters for the 2018 Andalusian regional elections. The proliferation of polls published by the media offered overly optimistic expectations for the Socialist Party, and a scenario of high competitiveness between conservative parties (the Popular Party, the liberal party Ciudadanos and the right wing populist party Vox) that affected the electoral preferences of voters. Through a statistical model in two phases, we have verified how mobilization took place in the socialist electorate given the probability of a solid majority, and opting conservative voters to make an ideological vote (Vox) against a strategic vote (Popular Party), due to a lack of alternative majorities to the socialist government of Susana Díaz

La importancia de las redes sociales en el desarrollo de competencias de ciudadanía intercultural de las familias de origen inmigrante y autóctonos = The importance of social networks in the development of citizen intercultural competence in immigrant and autochtonous families

Desde hace varias décadas se está estudiando el efecto que poseen las redes sociales sobre las personas en los proyectos migratorios. En este artículo destacamos una serie de aspectos que se ven inmersos en los procesos de elaboración de estas redes sociales. La calidad que poseen estas redes, van a repercutir en la formación de una serie de competencias interculturales concretas, consideradas éstas como habilidades que sirven para ser eficaces y que, desde el punto de vista de la ciudadanía intercultural, incluye dos concepciones imprescindibles como son la de estatus y la de proceso. Para cumplir con estos dos aspectos clave, la sociedad multicultural necesita de una formación en ciudadanía intercultural que incluya la competencia ciudadana y ésta, a su vez, la habilidad de comunicación y es aquí donde diferentes agentes, como los componenetes de los centros educativos, de los servicios sociales y, sobre todo, de las asociaciones y ONGs toman especial relevancia, tal y como demostramos en este artículo, en el que damos a conocer una investigación realizada, tanto con familias de origen autóctono, como con familias de origen inmigrante con el objetivo de conocer cuáles son las redes sociales con las que se desenvuelven y cómo esta redes pueden ayudar a que las familias puedan desarrollar competencias que les permita convivir en una sociedad multicultural.____________________________For several decades the effect that have the social networks in the migratory projects of the people has been studying. In this article we emphasized a series of aspects that are immersed in the processes of elaboration of these social networks. The quality that has these networks, is going to repel in the formation of a series of intercultural competentes, considered these like abilities that serve to be effective and that, from the point of view of the intercultural citizenship, include two essential conceptions: the one is the estatus and the other one is process. In order to fulfill these two aspects, the multicultural society needs a formation in intercultural citizenship that includes the citizen competence and this one, as well, the communication ability. Is here where different agents: the components of the educative centers, the social services and, mainly, the components of the associations and ONGs take special relevance, so and as we demonstrated as much in this article, in which we present an investigation made with families of native origin, like with families of immigrant origin with the objective to know which are the social networks with which they develop and how these networks can help to that these families can develop competentes that allow them to coexist in a multicultural society

Students perception of auto-scored online exams in blended assessment: feedback for improvement

[ES] El desarrollo de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación ha producido un incremento del uso de la Computer Based Assessment (CBA, evaluación basada en ordenadores). en la educación superior. En la última década, ha habido un debate sobre los exámenes online vs los escritos tradicionales. El objetivo del presente estudio ha sido verificar si los estudiantes tienen prejuicios sobre los exámenes online con corrección automática, y si ese es el caso, determinar los motivos. El estudio se realizó en el contexto de una evaluación mixta que implicó a 1200 estudiantes matriculados en una asignatura de física de primer curso universitario. De entre ellos, 463 respondieron a una encuesta anónima. Del análisis cuantitativo de la encuesta surgieron tres factores (etiquetados «F1-Learning», «F2-Use of Tool» y «F3-Assessment»), y se estableció una escala aditiva. Hemos encontrado diferencias significativas en el factor «F3-Assessment» en comparación con los otros dos factores, lo que indica una menor aceptación de la herramienta para la evaluación del estudiante. Parece ser que, a pesar de que los estudiantes están acostumbrados a los ordenadores, tienen una falta de confianza en los exámenes online. Para reforzar y matizar los resultados cuantitativos de la encuesta, incluimos una pregunta abierta y realizamos una entrevista a un pequeño grupo de 11 estudiantes. Aunque sus comentarios fueron en general positivos, especialmente sobre la facilidad de uso y sobre su utilidad para conocer el nivel alcanzado durante el proceso de aprendizaje, hubo algunas críticas sobre la claridad de las preguntas y el rigor del sistema de puntuación. Estos dos factores, entre otros, podrían ser la causa de la peor percepción del factor «F3-Assessment» y el origen de las reticencias de los estudiantes a los exámenes online y a la corrección automática.[EN] Development of the information and communication technologies has led to an increase in the use of Computer Based Assessment (CBA) in higher education. In the last decade, there has been a discussion on online versus the traditional pen-and-paper exams. The aim of this study was to verify whether students have reserves about auto-scored online exams, and if that is the case, to determine the reasons. The study was performed in the context of a blended assessment in which 1200 students were enrolled on a first-year physics university course. Among them, 463 answered an anonymous survey, supplemented by information obtained from an open-ended question and from interviews with students. Three factors (labelled `F1-Learning,¿ `F2-Use of Tool,¿ and `F3-Assessment¿) emerged from the quantitative analysis of the survey, and an additive scale was established. We found significant differences in the `F3-Assessment¿ factor compared to the other two factors, indicating a lower acceptance of the tool for student assessment. It seems that even though students are used to computers, they have a lack of confidence in online exams. We carried out an in-depth survey on this topic in the form of an open-ended question and by interviewing a small group of 11 students to confer strength and nuance to the quantitative results of the survey. Although their comments were in general positive, especially on ease-of-use and on its usefulness in indicating the level achieved during the learning process, there was also some criticism of the clarity of questions and the strictness system of marking. These two factors, among others, could have been the cause of the worse perception of F3-Assessment and the origin of the students¿ reluctances of online exams and automatic scoring.This work was supported by the Universitat Politècnica de València through the A15/16 Project (Convocatoria de Proyectos de Innovación y Convergencia de la UPV). We would like to thank the ICE in the Universitat Politècnica de València for their help, through the Innovation and Educational Quality Program and for supporting the team Innovación en Metodologías Activas para el Aprendizaje de la Física (e-MACAFI).Riera Guasp, J.; Ardid Ramírez, M.; Gómez-Tejedor, J.; Vidaurre, A.; Meseguer Dueñas, JM. (2018). Students perception of auto-scored online exams in blended assessment: feedback for improvement. Educacion XX1. 21(2):79-103. https://doi.org/10.5944/ educXX1.19559S7910321

Sociología a pie

Unidad Deptal. de Sociología: Metodología y TeoríaFac. de Ciencias de la InformaciónFALSEsubmitte

Using Interpretable Machine Learning to Identify Baseline Predictive Factors of Remission and Drug Durability in Crohn’s Disease Patients on Ustekinumab

Ustekinumab has shown efficacy in Crohn's Disease (CD) patients. To identify patient profiles of those who benefit the most from this treatment would help to position this drug in the therapeutic paradigm of CD and generate hypotheses for future trials. The objective of this analysis was to determine whether baseline patient characteristics are predictive of remission and the drug durability of ustekinumab, and whether its positioning with respect to prior use of biologics has a significant effect after correcting for disease severity and phenotype at baseline using interpretable machine learning. Patients' data from SUSTAIN, a retrospective multicenter single-arm cohort study, were used. Disease phenotype, baseline laboratory data, and prior treatment characteristics were documented. Clinical remission was defined as the Harvey Bradshaw Index <= 4 and was tracked longitudinally. Drug durability was defined as the time until a patient discontinued treatment. A total of 439 participants from 60 centers were included and a total of 20 baseline covariates considered. Less exposure to previous biologics had a positive effect on remission, even after controlling for baseline disease severity using a non-linear, additive, multivariable model. Additionally, age, body mass index, and fecal calprotectin at baseline were found to be statistically significant as independent negative risk factors for both remission and drug survival, with further risk factors identified for remission

Long-Term Real-World Effectiveness and Safety of Ustekinumab in Crohn’s Disease Patients: The SUSTAIN Study

Background Large real-world-evidence studies are required to confirm the durability of response, effectiveness, and safety of ustekinumab in Crohn’s disease (CD) patients in real-world clinical practice. Methods A retrospective, multicentre study was conducted in Spain in patients with active CD who had received ≥1 intravenous dose of ustekinumab for ≥6 months. Primary outcome was ustekinumab retention rate; secondary outcomes were to identify predictive factors for drug retention, short-term remission (week 16), loss of response and predictive factors for short-term efficacy and loss of response, and ustekinumab safety. Results A total of 463 patients were included. Mean baseline Harvey-Bradshaw Index was 8.4. A total of 447 (96.5%) patients had received prior biologic therapy, 141 (30.5%) of whom had received ≥3 agents. In addition, 35.2% received concomitant immunosuppressants, and 47.1% had ≥1 abdominal surgery. At week 16, 56% had remission, 70% had response, and 26.1% required dose escalation or intensification; of these, 24.8% did not subsequently reduce dose. After a median follow-up of 15 months, 356 (77%) patients continued treatment. The incidence rate of ustekinumab discontinuation was 18% per patient-year of follow-up. Previous intestinal surgery and concomitant steroid treatment were associated with higher risk of ustekinumab discontinuation, while a maintenance schedule every 12 weeks had a lower risk; neither concomitant immunosuppressants nor the number of previous biologics were associated with ustekinumab discontinuation risk. Fifty adverse events were reported in 39 (8.4%) patients; 4 of them were severe (2 infections, 1 malignancy, and 1 fever). Conclusions Ustekinumab is effective and safe as short- and long-term treatment in a refractory cohort of CD patients in real-world clinical practice

Effectiveness of Fosfomycin for the Treatment of Multidrug-Resistant Escherichia coli Bacteremic Urinary Tract Infections

IMPORTANCE The consumption of broad-spectrum drugs has increased as a consequence of the spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli. Finding alternatives for these infections is critical, for which some neglected drugs may be an option. OBJECTIVE To determine whether fosfomycin is noninferior to ceftriaxone or meropenem in the targeted treatment of bacteremic urinary tract infections (bUTIs) due to MDR E coli. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This multicenter, randomized, pragmatic, open clinical trial was conducted at 22 Spanish hospitals from June 2014 to December 2018. Eligible participants were adult patients with bacteremic urinary tract infections due to MDR E coli; 161 of 1578 screened patients were randomized and followed up for 60 days. Data were analyzed in May 2021. INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized 1 to 1 to receive intravenous fosfomycin disodium at 4 g every 6 hours (70 participants) or a comparator (ceftriaxone or meropenem if resistant; 73 participants) with the option to switch to oral fosfomycin trometamol for the fosfomycin group or an active oral drug or pa renteral ertapenem for the comparator group after 4 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was clinical and microbiological cure (CMC) 5 to 7 days after finalization of treatment; a noninferiority margin of 7% was considered. RESULTS Among 143 patients in the modified intention-to-treat population (median [IQR] age, 72 [62-81] years; 73 [51.0%] women), 48 of 70 patients (68.6%) treated with fosfomycin and 57 of 73 patients (78.1%) treated with comparators reached CMC (risk difference, -9.4 percentage points; 1-sided 95% CI, -21.5 to infinity percentage points; P = .10). While clinical or microbiological failure occurred among 10 patients (14.3%) treated with fosfomycin and 14 patients (19.7%) treated with comparators (risk difference, -5.4 percentage points; 1-sided 95% CI. -infinity to 4.9; percentage points; P = .19), an increased rate of adverse event-related discontinuations occurred with fosfomycin vs comparators (6 discontinuations [8.5%] vs 0 discontinuations; P = .006). In an exploratory analysis among a subset of 38 patients who underwent rectal colonization studies, patients treated with fosfomycin acquired a new ceftriaxone-resistant or meropenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria at a decreased rate compared with patients treated with comparators (0 of 21 patients vs 4 of 17 patients [23.5%]; 1-sided P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study found that fosfomycin did not demonstrate noninferiority to comparators as targeted treatment of bUTI from MDR E coli; this was due to an increased rate of adverse event-related discontinuations. This finding suggests that fosfomycin may be considered for selected patients with these infections

Impact of Biological Agents on Postsurgical Complications in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Multicentre Study of Geteccu

Background: The impact of biologics on the risk of postoperative complications (PC) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is still an ongoing debate. This lack of evidence is more relevant for ustekinumab and vedolizumab. Aims: To evaluate the impact of biologics on the risk of PC. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in 37 centres. Patients treated with biologics within 12 weeks before surgery were considered “exposed”. The impact of the exposure on the risk of 30-day PC and the risk of infections was assessed by logistic regression and propensity score-matched analysis. Results: A total of 1535 surgeries were performed on 1370 patients. Of them, 711 surgeries were conducted in the exposed cohort (584 anti-TNF, 58 vedolizumab and 69 ustekinumab). In the multivariate analysis, male gender (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2–2.0), urgent surgery (OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2–2.2), laparotomy approach (OR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and severe anaemia (OR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3–2.6) had higher risk of PC, while academic hospitals had significantly lower risk. Exposure to biologics (either anti-TNF, vedolizumab or ustekinumab) did not increase the risk of PC (OR: 1.2; 95% CI: 0.97–1.58), although it could be a risk factor for postoperative infections (OR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.03–2.27). Conclusions: Preoperative administration of biologics does not seem to be a risk factor for overall PC, although it may be so for postoperative infections