Technical note : Comparison of methane ebullition modelling approaches used in terrestrial wetland models

Emission via bubbling, i.e. ebullition, is one of the main methane (CH4) emission pathways from wetlands to the atmosphere. Direct measurement of gas bubble formation, growth and release in the peat-water matrix is challenging and in consequence these processes are relatively unknown and are coarsely represented in current wetland CH4 emission models. In this study we aimed to evaluate three ebullition modelling approaches and their effect on model performance. This was achieved by implementing the three approaches in one process-based CH4 emission model. All the approaches were based on some kind of threshold: either on CH4 pore water concentration (ECT), pressure (EPT) or free-phase gas volume (EBG) threshold. The model was run using 4 years of data from a boreal sedge fen and the results were compared with eddy covariance measurements of CH4 fluxes. Modelled annual CH4 emissions were largely unaffected by the different ebullition modelling approaches; however, temporal variability in CH4 emissions varied an order of magnitude between the approaches. Hence the ebullition modelling approach drives the temporal variability in modelled CH4 emissions and therefore significantly impacts, for instance, high-frequency (daily scale) model comparison and calibration against measurements. The modelling approach based on the most recent knowledge of the ebullition process (volume threshold, EBG) agreed the best with the measured fluxes (R-2 = 0.63) and hence produced the most reasonable results, although there was a scale mismatch between the measurements (ecosystem scale with heterogeneous ebullition locations) and model results (single horizontally ho-mogeneous peat column). The approach should be favoured over the two other more widely used ebullition modelling approaches and researchers are encouraged to implement it into their CH4 emission models.Peer reviewe

Does nitrate fertilization induce nox emission from scots pine (p. sylvestris) shoots?

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Urinary metabolite profiling and risk of progression of diabetic nephropathy in 2670 individuals with type 1 diabetes

Aims/hypothesis This prospective, observational study examines associations between 51 urinary metabolites and risk of progression of diabetic nephropathy in individuals with type 1 diabetes by employing an automated NMR metabolomics technique suitable for large-scale urine sample collections. Methods We collected 24-h urine samples for 2670 individuals with type 1 diabetes from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy study and measured metabolite concentrations by NMR. Individuals were followed up for 9.0 +/- 5.0 years until their first sign of progression of diabetic nephropathy, end-stage kidney disease or study end. Cox regressions were performed on the entire study population (overall progression), on 1999 individuals with normoalbuminuria and 347 individuals with macroalbuminuria at baseline. Results Seven urinary metabolites were associated with overall progression after adjustment for baseline albuminuria and chronic kidney disease stage (p < 8 x 10(-4)): leucine (HR 1.47 [95% CI 1.30, 1.66] per 1-SD creatinine-scaled metabolite concentration), valine (1.38 [1.22, 1.56]), isoleucine (1.33 [1.18, 1.50]), pseudouridine (1.25 [1.11, 1.42]), threonine (1.27 [1.11, 1.46]) and citrate (0.84 [0.75, 0.93]). 2-Hydroxyisobutyrate was associated with overall progression (1.30 [1.16, 1.45]) and also progression from normoalbuminuria (1.56 [1.25, 1.95]). Six amino acids and pyroglutamate were associated with progression from macroalbuminuria. Conclusions/interpretation Branched-chain amino acids and other urinary metabolites were associated with the progression of diabetic nephropathy on top of baseline albuminuria and chronic kidney disease. We found differences in associations for overall progression and progression from normo- and macroalbuminuria. These novel discoveries illustrate the utility of analysing urinary metabolites in entire population cohorts.Peer reviewe

Impacts of climate and reclamation on temporal variations in CH4 emissions from different wetlands in China : from 1950 to 2010

Natural wetlands are among the most important sources of atmospheric methane and thus important for better understanding the long-term temporal variations in the atmospheric methane concentration. During the last 60 years, wetlands have experienced extensive conversion and impacts from climate warming which might result in complicated temporal and spatial variations in the changes of the wetland methane emissions. In this paper, we present a modeling framework, integrating CH4MODwetland, TOPMODEL, and TEM models, to analyze the temporal and spatial variations in CH4 emissions from natural wetlands (including inland marshes/swamps, coastal wetlands, lakes, and rivers) in China. Our analysis revealed a total increase of 25.5 %, averaging 0.52 gm(-2) per decade, in the national CH4 fluxes from 1950 to 2010, which was mainly induced by climate warming. Larger CH4 flux increases occurred in northeastern, northern, and northwestern China, where there have been higher temperature rises. However, decreases in precipitation due to climate warming offset the increment of CH4 fluxes in these regions. The CH4 fluxes from the wetland on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau exhibited the lowest CH4 increase (0.17 gm(-2) per decade). Although climate warming has accelerated CH4 fluxes, the total amount of national CH4 emissions decreased by approximately 2.35 Tg (1.91-2.81 Tg), i.e., from 4.50 Tg in the early 1950s to 2.15 Tg in the late 2000s, due to the wetland loss totalling 17.0 million ha. Of this reduction, 0.26 Tg (0.24-0.28 Tg) was derived from lakes and rivers, 0.16 Tg (0.13-0.20 Tg) from coastal wetlands, and 1.92 Tg (1.54-2.33 Tg) from inland wetlands. Spatially, northeastern China contributed the most to the total reduction, with a loss of 1.68 Tg. The wetland CH4 emissions reduced by more than half in most regions in China except for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, where the CH4 decrease was only 23.3 %.Peer reviewe

HIMMELI v1.0: HelsinkI Model of MEthane buiLd-up and emIssion for peatlands

Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. They emit CH4 because decomposition of soil organic matter in waterlogged anoxic conditions produces CH4, in addition to carbon dioxide (CO2). Production of CH4 and how much of it escapes to the atmosphere depend on a multitude of environmental drivers. Models simulating the processes leading to CH4 emissions are thus needed for upscaling observations to estimate present CH4 emissions and for producing scenarios of future atmospheric CH4 concentrations. Aiming at a CH4 model that can be added to models describing peatland carbon cycling, we developed a model called HIMMELI that describes CH4 build-up in and emissions from peatland soils. It is not a full peatland carbon cycle model but it requires the rate of anoxic soil respiration as input. Driven by soil temperature, leaf area index (LAI) of aerenchymatous peatland vegetation and water table depth (WTD), it simulates the concentrations and transport of CH4, CO2 and oxygen (O2) in a layered one-dimensional peat column. Here, we present the HIMMELI model structure, results of tests on the model sensitivity to the input data and to the description of the peat column (peat depth and layer thickness), and an intercomparison of the modelled and measured CH4 fluxes at Siikaneva, a peatland flux measurement site in Southern Finland. As HIMMELI describes only the CH4-related processes, not the full carbon cycle, our analysis revealed mechanisms and dependencies that may remain hidden when testing CH4 models connected to complete peatland carbon models, which is usually the case. Our results indicated that 1) the model is flexible and robust and thus suitable for different environments; 2) the simulated CH4 emissions largely depend on the prescribed rate of anoxic respiration; 3) the sensitivity of the total CH4 emission to other input variables, LAI and WTD, is mainly mediated via the O2 concentrations that affect the CH4 production and oxidation rates; 4) with given input respiration, the peat column description does not affect significantly the simulated CH4 emissions

The consolidated European synthesis of CH₄ and N₂O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2019

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their temporal variability as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH₄ and N₂O emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK) and updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates, and it extends the previous period of 1990–2017 to 2019. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported by parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021. Uncertainties in NGHGIs, as reported to the UNFCCC by the EU and its member states, are also included in the synthesis. Variations in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, the activities included are a key source of bias between estimates, e.g., anthropogenic and natural fluxes, which in atmospheric inversions are sensitive to the prior geospatial distribution of emissions. For CH₄ emissions, over the updated 2015–2019 period, which covers a sufficiently robust number of overlapping estimates, and most importantly the NGHGIs, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, accounting for mean emissions of 20.5 Tg CH₄ yrc (EDGARv6.0, last year 2018) and 18.4 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ (GAINS, last year 2015), close to the NGHGI estimates of 17.5±2.1 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. TD inversion estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also detect natural emissions. Over the same period, high-resolution regional TD inversions report a mean emission of 34 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. Coarser-resolution global-scale TD inversions result in emission estimates of 23 and 24 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ inferred from GOSAT and surface (SURF) network atmospheric measurements, respectively. The magnitude of natural peatland and mineral soil emissions from the JSBACH–HIMMELI model, natural rivers, lake and reservoir emissions, geological sources, and biomass burning together could account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 8 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. For N₂O emissions, over the 2015–2019 period, both BU products (EDGARv6.0 and GAINS) report a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.9 Tg N₂O yr⁻¹, close to the NGHGI data (0.8±55 % Tg N₂O yr⁻¹). Over the same period, the mean of TD global and regional inversions was 1.4 Tg N₂O yr⁻¹ (excluding TOMCAT, which reported no data). The TD and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future annual updates for the calculation of CH₄ and N₂O budgets at the national and EU27 + UK scales. Future comparability will be enhanced with further steps involving analysis at finer temporal resolutions and estimation of emissions over intra-annual timescales, which is of great importance for CH₄ and N₂O, and may help identify sector contributions to divergence between prior and posterior estimates at the annual and/or inter-annual scale. Even if currently comparison between CH₄ and N₂O inversion estimates and NGHGIs is highly uncertain because of the large spread in the inversion results, TD inversions inferred from atmospheric observations represent the most independent data against which inventory totals can be compared. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, TD inversions may arguably emerge as the most powerful tool for verifying emission inventories for CH₄, N₂O and other GHGs. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7553800 (Petrescu et al., 2023)

Effects of extreme meteorological conditions in 2018 on European methane emissions estimated using atmospheric inversions

The effect of the 2018 extreme meteorological conditions in Europe on methane (CH4) emissions is examined using estimates from four atmospheric inversions calculated for the period 2005-2018. For most of Europe, we find no anomaly in 2018 compared to the 2005-2018 mean. However, we find a positive anomaly for the Netherlands in April, which coincided with positive temperature and soil moisture anomalies suggesting an increase in biogenic sources. We also find a negative anomaly for the Netherlands for September-October, which coincided with a negative anomaly in soil moisture, suggesting a decrease in soil sources. In addition, we find a positive anomaly for Serbia in spring, summer and autumn, which coincided with increases in temperature and soil moisture, again suggestive of changes in biogenic sources, and the annual emission for 2018 was 33 +/- 38% higher than the 2005-2017 mean. These results indicate that CH4 emissions fromareas where the natural source is thought to be relatively small can still vary due to meteorological conditions. At the European scale though, the degree of variability over 2005-2018 was small, and there was negligible impact on the annual CH4 emissions in 2018 despite the extreme meteorological conditions.Peer reviewe