Achievements and gaps in projection studies on the temperature-attributable health burden: Where should we be headed?

Future projection of the temperature-related health burden, including mortality and hospital admissions, is a growing field of research. These studies aim to provide crucial information for decision-makers considering existing health policies as well as integrating targeted adaptation strategies to evade the health burden. However, this field of research is still overshadowed by large uncertainties. These uncertainties exist to an extent in the future climate and population models used by such studies but largely in the disparities in underlying assumptions. Existing studies differ in the factors incorporated for projection and strategies for considering the future adaptation of the population to temperature. These differences exist to a great degree because of a lack of robust evidence as well as gaps in the field of climate epidemiology that still require extensive input from the research community. This narrative review summarizes the current status of projection studies of temperature-attributable health burden, the guiding assumptions behind them, the common grounds, as well as the differences. Overall, the review aims to highlight existing evidence and knowledge gaps as a basis for designing future studies on temperature-attributable health burden estimation. Finding a robust methodology for projecting the future health burden could be a milestone for climate epidemiologists as this would largely benefit the world when applying this technique to project the climate-attributable cause-specific health burden and adapt our existing health policies accordingly

A Systematic Review of Sexual and Reproductive Health Knowledge, Experiences and Access to Services among Refugee, Migrant and Displaced Girls and Young Women in Africa

Adolescent girls and young women are an overlooked group within conflict- or disaster-affected populations, and their sexual and reproductive health (SRH) needs are often neglected. Existing evidence shows that forced migration and human mobility make girls and women more vulnerable to poor SRH outcomes such as high risk sexual behaviors, lack of contraception use, STIs and HIV/AIDS. We performed a systematic literature review to explore knowledge, experiences and access to SRH services in this population group across the African continent. Two databases (PubMed and Web of Science) were searched and from 896 identified publications, 15 peer-reviewed articles published in English met the inclusion criteria for this review. These consisted of eight applied qualitative, five quantitative and two mixed-method study designs. The quality of the studies was evaluated by the mixed-methods appraisal tool (MMAT) using scores in percentages (0-100%). Available evidence indicates that knowledge of young women and girls regarding contraceptive methods, STIs and HIV/AIDS are limited. This population group often experiences gender-based and sexual violence and abuse. The access and availability of SRH services are often limited due to distances, costs and stigma. This review demonstrates that there is still a dearth of peer-reviewed literature on SRH related aspects among refugee, migrant and displaced girls and young women in Africa. The data disaggregation by sex and age should be emphasized for future research in this field

A systematic review on the association between total and cardiopulmonary mortality/morbidity or cardiovascular risk factors with long-term exposure to increased or decreased ambient temperature.

The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. METHODS: Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DISCUSSION: We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development

A cross-sectional mixed-methods study of sexual and reproductive health knowledge, experiences and access to services among refugee adolescent girls in the Nakivale refugee settlement, Uganda

Abstract Background Humanitarian crises and migration make girls and women more vulnerable to poor sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes. Nevertheless, there is still a dearth of information on SRH outcomes and access to SRH services among refugee girls and young women in Africa. We conducted a mixed-methods study to assess SRH experiences, knowledge and access to services of refugee girls in the Nakivale settlement, Uganda. Methods A cross-sectional survey among 260 adolescent girls 13–19 years old was conducted between March and May 2018. Concurrently, in-depth interviews were conducted among a subset of 28 adolescents. For both methods, information was collected regarding SRH knowledge, experiences and access to services and commodities. The questionnaire was entered directly on the tablets using the Magpi® app. Descriptive statistical analysis and multinomial logistic regression were performed. Qualitative data was transcribed and analysed using thematic content analysis. Results A total of 260 participants were interviewed, with a median age of 15.9 years. The majority of girls were born in DR Congo and Burundi. Of the 93% of girls who had experienced menstruation, 43% had ever missed school due to menstruation. Regarding SRH knowledge, a total of 11.7% were not aware of how HIV is prevented, 15.7% did not know any STI and 13.8% were not familiar with any method to prevent pregnancy. A total of 30 girls from 260 were sexually active, of which 11 had experienced forced sexual intercourse. The latter occurred during conflict, in transit or within the camp. A total of 27 of 260 participants had undergone female genital mutilation (FGM). The most preferred sources for SRH information was parents or guardians, although participants expressed that they were afraid or shy to discuss other sexuality topics apart from menstruation with parents. A total of 30% of the female adolescents had ever visited a SRH service centre, mostly to test for HIV and to seek medical aid for menstrual problems. Conclusions Adolescent refugee girls lack adequate SRH information, experience poor SRH outcomes including school absence due to menstruation, sexual violence and FGM. Comprehensive SRH services including sexuality education, barrier-free access to SRH services and parental involvement are recommended

Projection of temperature-related myocardial infarction in Augsburg, Germany

Hintergrund: Erhebliche Anstrengungen müssen unternommen werden, um das von der Pariser UN-Klimakonferenz 2015 beschlossene Klimaabkommen umzusetzen, das die Begrenzung der globalen Erwärmung auf deutlich unter 2 °C, möglichst 1,5 °C im Vergleich zum vorindustriellen Niveau vorsieht. Unsere Zielsetzung war, die Zahl künftiger temperaturbedingter Herzinfarkte (HI) in Augsburg zu prognostizieren, ausgehend von einer globalen Erwärmung um 1,5 °C, 2 °C oder 3 °C. Methoden: Unter Verwendung von täglichen HI-Zeitreihen und Temperaturprojektionen wurde basierend auf zwei Klimaszenarien jeweils die Zahl der temperaturbedingten Herzinfarkte bei unterschiedlichen Erwärmungsleveln prognostiziert. Bevölkerungsstruktur und Adaptationsgrad der Bevölkerung wurden dabei als konstant angenommen. Ergebnisse: In einem emissionsarmen Szenario, das die Erwärmung im 21. Jahrhundert auf unter 2 °C begrenzt, wird die Zahl der temperaturbedingten Herzinfarkte bei einer globalen Erwärmung um 1,5 °C mit −6 Fällen (95-%-Konfidenzintervall: [−60; 50]) pro Jahrzehnt leicht abnehmen. In einem Szenario mit hohen Emissionen, das die Ziele des Übereinkommens von Paris überschreitet, steigt pro Jahrzehnt die Zahl der temperaturbedingten Herzinfarkte bei Erwärmung um 2 °C um 18 [−64; 117] beziehungsweise bei Erwärmung um 3 °C um 63 [−83; 257] Fälle an. Fazit: Die künftige Belastung durch temperaturbedingte Herzinfarkt-Fälle in Augsburg wird bei einer globalen Erwärmung um 2 °C beziehungsweise 3 °C höher liegen als bei einer Erwärmung um 1,5 °C. Die Erfüllung des Übereinkommens von Paris mit Eindämmung der globalen Erwärmung auf 1,5 °C ist daher essenziell, um durch den Klimawandel verursachte zusätzliche Herzinfarkte zu vermeiden

A systematic review on the association between total and cardiopulmonary mortality/morbidity or cardiovascular risk factors with long-term exposure to increased or decreased ambient temperature

The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed

Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe

Background: Short-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings. Methods: We collected daily counts of CVD deaths aggregated at the small-area level in Norway (small-area level: municipality), England and Wales (lower super output areas), and Germany (district) during the warm season (May-September) from 1996 to 2018. Daily mean air temperatures estimated by spatial–temporal models were assigned to each small area. Within each country, we applied area-specific Quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the heat effects at lag 0–1 days. The area-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis to derive country-specific and overall heat effects. We examined individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors by subgroup analyses and meta-regression, respectively. Results: We included 2.84 million CVD deaths in analyses. For an increase in temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile, the pooled relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), with the country-specific RRs ranging from 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) in Norway to 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) in Germany. Heat effects were stronger among women [RRs (95% CIs) for women and men: 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) vs. 1.12 (1.00, 1.24)]. Greater heat vulnerability was observed in areas with high population density, high degree of urbanization, low green coverage, and high levels of fine particulate matter. Conclusion: This study provides evidence for the heat effects on CVD mortality in European countries using high-resolution data from both urban and rural areas. Besides, we identified individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors. Our findings may facilitate the development of heat-health action plans to increase resilience to climate change

A systematic review on the association between total and cardiopulmonary mortality/morbidity or cardiovascular risk factors with long-term exposure to increased or decreased ambient temperature

The health effects of acute exposure to temperature extremes are established; those of long-term exposure only recently received attention. We performed a systematic review to assess the associations of long-term (>3 months) exposure to higher or lower temperature on total and cardiopulmonary mortality and morbidity, screening 3455 studies and selecting 34. The studies were classified in those observing associations within a population over years with changing annual temperature indices and those comparing areas with a different climate. We also assessed the risk of bias, adapting appropriately an instrument developed by the World Health Organization for air pollution. Studies reported that annual temperature indices for extremes and variability were associated with annual increases in mortality, indicating that effects of temperature extremes cannot be attributed only to short-term mortality displacement. Studies on cardiovascular mortality indicated stronger associations with cold rather than hot temperature, whilst those on respiratory outcomes reported effects of both heat and cold but were few and used diverse health outcomes. Interactions with air pollution were not generally assessed. The few studies investigating effect modification showed stronger effects among the elderly and those socially deprived. Comparisons of health outcome prevalence between areas reported lower blood pressure and a tendency for higher obesity in populations living in warmer climates. Our review indicated interesting associations between long-term exposure to unusual temperature levels in specific areas and differences in health outcomes and cardiovascular risk factors between geographical locations with different climate, but the number of studies by design and health outcome was small. Risk of bias was identified because of the use of crude exposure assessment and inadequate adjustment for confounding. More and better designed studies, including the investigation of effect modifiers, are needed