Modeling fire ignition probability and frequency using Hurdle models: a cross-regional study in Southern Europe

Abstract Background Wildfires play a key role in shaping Mediterranean landscapes and ecosystems and in impacting species dynamics. Numerous studies have investigated the wildfire occurrences and the influence of their drivers in many countries of the Mediterranean Basin. However, in this regard, no studies have attempted to compare different Mediterranean regions, which may appear similar under many aspects. In response to this gap, climatic, topographic, anthropic, and landscape drivers were analyzed and compared to assess the patterns of fire ignition points in terms of fire occurrence and frequency in Catalonia (Spain), Sardinia, and Apulia (Italy). Therefore, the objectives of the study were to (1) assess fire ignition occurrence in terms of probability and frequency, (2) compare the main drivers affecting fire occurrence, and (3) produce fire probability and frequency maps for each region. Results In pursuit of the above, the probability of fire ignition occurrence and frequency was mapped using Negative Binomial Hurdle models, while the models' performances were evaluated using several metrics (AUC, prediction accuracy, RMSE, and the Pearson correlation coefficient). The results showed an inverse correlation between distance from infrastructures (i.e., urban roads and areas) and the occurrence of fires in all three study regions. This relationship became more significant when the frequency of fire ignition points was assessed. Moreover, a positive correlation was found between fire occurrence and landscape drivers according to region. The land cover classes more significantly affected were forest, agriculture, and grassland for Catalonia, Sardinia, and Apulia, respectively. Conclusions Compared to the climatic, topographic, and landscape drivers, anthropic activity significantly influences fire ignition and frequency in all three regions. When the distance from urban roads and areas decreases, the probability of fire ignition occurrence and frequency increases. Consequently, it is essential to implement long- to medium-term intervention plans to reduce the proximity between potential ignition points and fuels. In this perspective, the present study provides an applicable decision-making tool to improve wildfire prevention strategies at the European level in an area like the Mediterranean Basin where a profuse number of wildfires take place

RESPONSE OF BEETLE COMMUNITIES FIVE YEARS AFTER WILDFIRE IN MEDITERRANEAN FOREST ECOSYSTEMS

Wildfires are one of the most important drivers of forest composition and biodiversity in the Mediterranean Basin. Many studies have demonstrated that fires can affect insect diversity by altering the functional traits of species groups. We examined the 5-year response of beetles to wildfires by assessing patterns of community composition across a gradient from forest interior to forest edge to burnt forest area in Southern Italy. Our objective was to characterize the relationship between distance from the forest edge and occurrence of beetle taxonomic assemblages. We analyzed the composition, similarity, and dominance of ground beetle communities in randomly selected plots located along the forest-to-burned-area gradient. We found a negative relationship between community similarity and distance from the forest edge; moreover, the composition of species assemblages (within each family) became increasingly similar with proximity to the forest edge. As the distance from the forest edge into the burned area became greater the dominance of few species increased, and species composition shifted toward habitat generalists. The results partially support the notion that the differences in beetle communities probably are driven by habitat changes caused by fires, especially for those taxa with many specialist species in feeding and oviposition habitats. Understanding the biological effects of wildfires is necessary prior to design management strategies and policies for counteracting the loss of biodiversity at the global, regional and national levels

Estimating stand volume and above-ground biomass of urban forests using LiDAR

Assessing forest stand conditions in urban and peri-urban areas is essential to support ecosystem service planning and management, as most of the ecosystem services provided are a consequence of forest stand characteristics. However, collecting data for assessing forest stand conditions is time consuming and labor intensive. A plausible approach for addressing this issue is to establish a relationship between in situ measurements of stand characteristics and data from airborne laser scanning (LiDAR). In this study we assessed forest stand volume and above-ground biomass (AGB) in a broadleaved urban forest, using a combination of LiDAR-derived metrics, which takes the form of a forest allometric model. We tested various methods for extracting proxies of basal area (BA) and mean stand height (H) from the LiDAR point-cloud distribution and evaluated the performance of different models in estimating forest stand volume and AGB. The best predictors for both models were the scale parameters of the Weibull distribution of all returns (except the first) (proxy of BA) and the 95th percentile of the distribution of all first returns (proxy of H). The R2 were 0.81 (p < 0.01) for the stand volume model and 0.77 (p < 0.01) for the AGB model with a RMSE of 23.66 m3·ha−1 (23.3%) and 19.59 Mg·ha−1 (23.9%), respectively. We found that a combination of two LiDAR-derived variables (i.e., proxy of BA and proxy of H), which take the form of a forest allometric model, can be used to estimate stand volume and above-ground biomass in broadleaved urban forest areas. Our results can be compared to other studies conducted using LiDAR in broadleaved forests with similar methods

L’esperienza delle Community Forests in Inghilterra

Community Forests can be described as multi-purpose forests that are close to people and that deliver environmental, social and economic benefits. Community Forests involve local communities in the planning, design, management and use of trees, woodland and associated green-spaces. In England, Community Forests are a national programme of environmental regeneration reaching half of the England’s population, enhancing the countryside around major towns and cities, creating beautiful landscapes, rich in wildlife with associated opportunities for recreation and education. Overall, Community Forests cover an area of over four hundred and fifty thousand hectares in England: one of the largest environmental initiatives in Europe. After twenty years, the great involvement of people shows the importance of this new strategy for environmental planning and management.

Tipologie strutturali e caratteristiche funzionali delle aree verdi periurbane: il caso di studio della città di Bari

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A Streamlined Approach by a Combination of Bioindication and Geostatistical Methods for Assessing Air Contaminants and Their Effects on Human Health in Industrialized Areas: A Case Study in Southern Brazil

Industrialization in developing countries associated with urban growth results in a number of economic benefits, especially in small or medium-sized cities, but leads to a number of environmental and public health consequences. This problem is further aggravated when adequate infrastructure is lacking to monitor the environmental impacts left by industries and refineries. In this study, a new protocol was designed combining biomonitoring and geostatistics to evaluate the possible effects of shale industry emissions on human health and wellbeing. Futhermore, the traditional and expensive air quality method based on PM2.5 measuring was also used to validate the low-cost geostatistical approach. Chemical analysis was performed using Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (EDXRF) to measure inorganic elements in tree bark and shale retorted samples in São Mateus do Sul city, Southern Brazil. Fe, S, and Si were considered potential pollutants in the study area. Distribution maps of element concentrations were generated from the dataset and used to estimate the spatial behavior of Fe, S, and Si and the range from their hot spot(s), highlighting the regions sorrounding the shale refinery. This evidence was also demonstrated in the measurements of PM2.5 concentrations, which are in agreement with the information obtained from the biomonitoring and geostatistical model. Factor and descriptive analyses performed on the concentrations of tree bark contaminants suggest that Fe, S, and Si might be used as indicators of industrial emissions. The number of cases of respiratory diseases obtained from local basic health unit were used to assess a possible correlation between shale refinery emissions and cases of repiratory disease. These data are public and may be accessed on the website of the the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Significant associations were found between the health data and refinery activities. The combination of the spatial characterization of air pollution and clinical health data revealed that adverse effects were significant for individuals over 38 years of age. These results also suggest that a protocol designed to monitor urban air quality may be an effective and low-cost strategy in environmentally contaminated cities, especially in low- and middle-income countries

A streamlined approach by a combination of bioindication and geostatistical methods for assessing air contaminants and their effects on human health in industrialized areas: A case study in Southern Brazil

© 2017 Ferreira, Ribeiro, Ferreira, Kniess, Quaresma, Lafortezza, Santos, Saiki and Saldiva. Industrialization in developing countries associated with urban growth results in a number of economic benefits, especially in small or medium-sized cities, but leads to a number of environmental and public health consequences. This problem is further aggravated when adequate infrastructure is lacking to monitor the environmental impacts left by industries and refineries. In this study, a new protocol was designed combining biomonitoring and geostatistics to evaluate the possible effects of shale industry emissions on human health and wellbeing. Futhermore, the traditional and expensive air quality method based on PM2.5 measuring was also used to validate the low-cost geostatistical approach. Chemical analysis was performed using Energy Dispersive X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (EDXRF) to measure inorganic elements in tree bark and shale retorted samples in São Mateus do Sul city, Southern Brazil. Fe, S, and Si were considered potential pollutants in the study area. Distribution maps of element concentrations were generated from the dataset and used to estimate the spatial behavior of Fe, S, and Si and the range from their hot spot(s), highlighting the regions sorrounding the shale refinery. This evidence was also demonstrated in the measurements of PM2.5 concentrations, which are in agreement with the information obtained from the biomonitoring and geostatistical model. Factor and descriptive analyses performed on the concentrations of tree bark contaminants suggest that Fe, S, and Si might be used as indicators of industrial emissions. The number of cases of respiratory diseases obtained from local basic health unit were used to assess a possible correlation between shale refinery emissions and cases of repiratory disease. These data are public and may be accessed on the website of the the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Significant associations were found between the health data and refinery activities. The combination of the spatial characterization of air pollution and clinical health data revealed that adverse effects were significant for individuals over 38 years of age. These results also suggest that a protocol designed to monitor urban air quality may be an effective and low-cost strategy in environmentally contaminated cities, especially in low- and middle-income countries.Link_to_subscribed_fulltex

Integrated forest management to prevent wildfires under Mediterranean environments

This review presents a multidisciplinary framework for integrating the ecological, regulatory, procedural and technical aspects of forest management for fi res prevention under Mediterranean environments. The aims are to: i) provide a foreground of wildfi re scenario; ii) illustrate the theoretical background of forest fuel management; iii) describe the available fuel management techniques and mechanical operations for fi re prevention in forest and wildland-urban interfaces, with exemplifi cation of case-studies; iv)allocate fi re prevention activities under the hierarchy of forest planning. The review is conceived as an outline commentary discussion targeted to professionals, technicians and government personnel involved in forestry and environmental management