A semiparametric bivariate probit model for joint modeling of outcomes in STEMI patients

In this work we analyse the relationship among in-hospital mortality and a treatment effectiveness outcome in patients affected by ST-Elevation myocardial infarction. The main idea is to carry out a joint modeling of the two outcomes applying a Semiparametric Bivariate Probit Model to data arising from a clinical registry called STEMI Archive. A realistic quantification of the relationship between outcomes can be problematic for several reasons. First, latent factors associated with hospitals organization can affect the treatment efficacy and/or interact with patient’s condition at admission time. Moreover, they can also directly influence the mortality outcome. Such factors can be hardly measurable. Thus, the use of classical estimation methods will clearly result in inconsistent or biased parameter estimates. Secondly, covariate-outcomes relationships can exhibit nonlinear patterns. Provided that proper statistical methods for model fitting in such framework are available, it is possible to employ a simultaneous estimation approach to account for unobservable confounders. Such a framework can also provide flexible covariate structures and model the whole conditional distribution of the response

Probing Extreme-Density Matter with Gravitational Wave Observations of Binary Neutron Star Merger Remnants

We present a proof-of-concept study, based on numerical-relativity simulations, of how gravitational waves (GWs) from neutron star merger remnants can probe the nature of matter at extreme densities. Phase transitions and extra degrees of freedom can emerge at densities beyond those reached during the inspiral, and typically result in a softening of the equation of state (EOS). We show that such physical effects change the qualitative dynamics of the remnant evolution, but they are not identifiable as a signature in the GW frequency, with the exception of possible black-hole formation effects. The EOS softening is, instead, encoded in the GW luminosity and phase and is in principle detectable up to distances of the order of several Mpcs with advanced detectors and up to hundreds of Mpcs with third generation detectors. Probing extreme-density matter will require going beyond the current paradigm and developing a more holistic strategy for modeling and analyzing postmerger GW signals.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Matches version accepted on ApJ

Image-based Lagrangian Particle Tracking in bed-load experiments

Image analysis has been increasingly used for the measurement of river flows due to its capabilities to furnish detailed quantitative depictions at a relatively low cost. This manuscript describes an application of particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) to a bed-load experiment with lightweight sediment. The key characteristics of the investigated sediment transport conditions were the presence of a covered flow and of a fixed rough bed above which particles were released in limited number at the flume inlet. Under the applied flow conditions, the motion of the individual bed-load particles was intermittent, with alternating movement and stillness terms. The flow pattern was preliminarily characterized by acoustic measurements of vertical profiles of the stream-wise velocity. During process visualization, a large field of view was obtained using two actioncameras placed at different locations along the flume. The experimental protocol is described in terms of channel calibration, experiment realization, image pre-processing, automatic particle tracking, and post-processing of particle track data from the two cameras. The presented proof-of-concept results include probability distributions of the particle hop length and duration. The achievements of this work are compared to those of existing literature to demonstrate the validity of the protocol

Dynamical Mass Ejection from Binary Neutron Star Mergers

We present fully general-relativistic simulations of binary neutron star mergers with a temperature and composition dependent nuclear equation of state. We study the dynamical mass ejection from both quasi-circular and dynamical-capture eccentric mergers. We systematically vary the level of our treatment of the microphysics to isolate the effects of neutrino cooling and heating and we compute the nucleosynthetic yields of the ejecta. We find that eccentric binaries can eject significantly more material than quasi-circular binaries and generate bright infrared and radio emission. In all our simulations the outflow is composed of a combination of tidally- and shock-driven ejecta, mostly distributed over a broad $\sim 60^\circ$ angle from the orbital plane, and, to a lesser extent, by thermally driven winds at high latitudes. Ejecta from eccentric mergers are typically more neutron rich than those of quasi-circular mergers. We find neutrino cooling and heating to affect, quantitatively and qualitatively, composition, morphology, and total mass of the outflows. This is also reflected in the infrared and radio signatures of the binary. The final nucleosynthetic yields of the ejecta are robust and insensitive to input physics or merger type in the regions of the second and third r-process peaks. The yields for elements on the first peak vary between our simulations, but none of our models is able to explain the Solar abundances of first-peak elements without invoking additional first-peak contributions from either neutrino and viscously-driven winds operating on longer timescales after the mergers, or from core-collapse supernovae.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures. We corrected a problem in the formulation of the neutrino heating scheme and re-ran all of the affected models. The main conclusions are unchanged. This version also contains one more figure and a number of improvements on the tex

Neutrino-driven Turbulent Convection and Standing Accretion Shock Instability in Three-Dimensional Core-Collapse Supernovae

We conduct a series of numerical experiments into the nature of three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamics in the postbounce stalled-shock phase of core-collapse supernovae using 3D general-relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of a $27$-$M_\odot$ progenitor star with a neutrino leakage/heating scheme. We vary the strength of neutrino heating and find three cases of 3D dynamics: (1) neutrino-driven convection, (2) initially neutrino-driven convection and subsequent development of the standing accretion shock instability (SASI), (3) SASI dominated evolution. This confirms previous 3D results of Hanke et al. 2013, ApJ 770, 66 and Couch & Connor 2014, ApJ 785, 123. We carry out simulations with resolutions differing by up to a factor of $\sim$4 and demonstrate that low resolution is artificially favorable for explosion in the 3D convection-dominated case, since it decreases the efficiency of energy transport to small scales. Low resolution results in higher radial convective fluxes of energy and enthalpy, more fully buoyant mass, and stronger neutrino heating. In the SASI-dominated case, lower resolution damps SASI oscillations. In the convection-dominated case, a quasi-stationary angular kinetic energy spectrum $E(\ell)$ develops in the heating layer. Like other 3D studies, we find $E(\ell) \propto \ell^{-1}$ in the "inertial range," while theory and local simulations argue for $E(\ell) \propto \ell^{-5/3}$. We argue that current 3D simulations do not resolve the inertial range of turbulence and are affected by numerical viscosity up to the energy containing scale, creating a "bottleneck" that prevents an efficient turbulent cascade.Comment: 24 pages, 15 figures. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. Added one figure and made minor modifications to text according to suggestions from the refere

Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science

Measuring the causal impact of state behavior on outcomes is one of the biggest methodological challenges in the field of political science, for two reasons: behavior is generally endogenous, and the threat of unobserved variables that confound the relationship between behavior and outcomes is pervasive. Matching methods, widely considered to be the state of the art in causal inference in political science, are generally ill-suited to inference in the presence of unobserved confounders. Heckman-style multiple-equation models offer a solution to this problem; however, they rely on functional-form assumptions that can produce substantial bias in estimates of average treatment effects. We describe a category of models, flexible joint likelihood models, that account for both features of the data while avoiding reliance on rigid functional-form assumptions. We then assess these models’ performance in a series of neutral simulations, in which they produce substantial (55% to 90%) reduction in bias relative to competing models. Finally, we demonstrate their utility in a reanalysis of Simmons’ (2000) classic study of the impact of Article VIII commitment on compliance with the IMF’s currency-restriction regime

Assessment of Natural Resources Use for Sustainable Development - DPSIR Framework for Case Studies in Portsmouth and Thames Gateway, U.K.

This chapter reports on the uses of the DPSIR framework to assess the sustainability of the intertidal environments within the two UK case study areas, Portsmouth and Thames Gateway. It focuses on statutory conservation areas dominated by intertidal habitats. Two are located in Portsmouth (Portsmouth and Langstone Harbours) and four in the Thames Gateway (Benfleet Marshes, South Thames Estuary, Medway Estuary and the Swale in the Thames Gateway). Based on the reduction of a number of pressures and impacts observed in recent decades and the improvement of overall environmental quality, all six SSSIs are considered to be sustainable in the short and medium term. In the future, it is possible that the impacts of climate change, especially sea-level rise, might result in further reduction in the area and/or quality of intertidal habitats. Further integration between conservation and planning objectives (both for urban development and management of flood risk) at local level is needed to support the long-term sustainability of intertidal habitats