Discharge assimilation in a distributed flood forecasting model

International audienceIn the field of operational flood forecasting, uncertainties linked to hydrological forecast are often crucial. In this work, data assimilation techniques are employed to improve hydrological variable estimates coming from numerical simulations using all the available real-time water level measurements. The proposed assimilation scheme, a classical Kalman filter extension to non-linear systems, is applied in a rainfall-runoff distributed model based on the SCS-CN approach. The complex hydrological system of the Toce river basin is studied, a mountainous catchment of about 1500 km2 in the Italian alps, through the development of a prototype available for operational use. For the considered flood event, the assimilation scheme is stable, even when available observations show gaps or outliers. It allows significant improvements in the simulation results, in particular when the focus is addressed to the peak

Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting: the Piemonte Region case study

International audienceThe development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Region's hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure is described. The area of interest is the Upper Po River basin (north-west Italy) of approximately 37000 km2 and its river network of about 3000 km and three big lakes. FloodWatch, a GIS-based decision support system for real-time flood forecasting, has been developed and used operationally at the Piemonte Region's Room for the Situation of Natural Hazards in Torino, Italy, since January 2000. The system is linked directly to the telemetric gauges system, uses daily quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts issued by the Regional Meteorological Service and automatically supplies operational forecasts of water-level and discharge at about 30 locations for up to 48 hours. Strengths and limits of the system and its link with operational flood alert and management are discussed. The case study presented is the October 2000 flood event, when the north-west of Italy experienced one of the largest floods on record. Results highlight how the uncertainty linked to the use of meteorological forecasts greatly influences the quality of the hydrological forecasts. The proposed alert procedure, based on coded risk levels, can help effectively in facing forecast uncertainties

The hydro-meteorological chain in Piemonte region, North Western Italy - analysis of the HYDROPTIMET test cases

International audienceThe HYDROPTIMET Project, Interreg IIIB EU program, is developed in the framework of the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to severe hydro-meteorological events and aims to the optimisation of Hydro-Meteorological warning systems by the experimentation of new tools (such as numerical models) to be used operationally for risk assessment. The objects of the research are the mesoscale weather phenomena and the response of watersheds with size ranging from 102 to 103 km2. Non-hydrostatic meteorological models are used to catch such phenomena at a regional level focusing on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF). Furthermore hydrological Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) are performed by the simulation of run-off generation and flood propagation in the main rivers of the territory. In this way observed data and QPF are used, in a real-time configuration, for one-way forcing of the hydrological model that works operationally connected to the Piemonte Region Alert System. The main hydro-meteorological events that affected Piemonte Region in the last years are analysed, these are the HYDROPTIMET selected test cases of 14?18 November 2002 and 23?26 November 2002. The results obtained in terms of QPF and QDF offer a basis to evaluate the sensitivity of the whole hydro-meteorological chain to the uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Different configurations of non-hydrostatic meteorological models are also evaluated

Integrating glaciers raster-based modelling in large catchments hydrological balance: the Rhone case study

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Operational flood-forecasting in the Piemonte region – development and verification of a fully distributed physically-oriented hydrological model

Abstract. A hydrological model for real time flood forecasting to Civil Protection services requires reliability and rapidity. At present, computational capabilities overcome the rapidity needs even when a fully distributed hydrological model is adopted for a large river catchment as the Upper Po river basin closed at Ponte Becca (nearly 40 000 km2). This approach allows simulating the whole domain and obtaining the responses of large as well as of medium and little sized sub-catchments. The FEST-WB hydrological model (Mancini, 1990; Montaldo et al., 2007; Rabuffetti et al., 2008) is implemented. The calibration and verification activities are based on more than 100 flood events, occurred along the main tributaries of the Po river in the period 2000–2003. More than 300 meteorological stations are used to obtain the forcing fields, 10 cross sections with continuous and reliable discharge time series are used for calibration while verification is performed on about 40 monitored cross sections. Furthermore meteorological forecasting models are used to force the hydrological model with Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for 36 h horizon in "operational setting" experiments. Particular care is devoted to understanding how QPF affects the accuracy of the Quantitative Discharge Forecasts (QDFs) and to assessing the QDF uncertainty impact on the warning system reliability. Results are presented either in terms of QDF and of warning issues highlighting the importance of an "operational based" verification approach

Evaluation of the hydro-meteorological chain in Piemonte Region, north western Italy - analysis of two HYDROPTIMET test cases

International audienceThe HYDROPTIMET Project, Interreg IIIB EU program, is developed in the framework of the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to severe hydro-meteorological events and aims to the optimisation of Hydro-Meteorological warning systems by the experimentation of new tools (such as numerical models) to be used operationally for risk assessment. The object of the research are the Mesoscale weather phenomena and the response of watersheds with size ranging from 102 to 103 km2. Non-hydrostatic meteorological models are used to catch such phenomena at a regional level focusing on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF). Furthermore hydrological Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) are performed by the simulation of run-off generation and flood propagation in the main rivers of the interested territory. In this way observed data and QPF are used, in a real-time configuration, for one-way forcing of the hydrological model that works operationally connected to the Piemonte Region Alert System. The main hydro-meteorological events that interested Piemonte Region in the last years are studied, these are the HYDROPTIMET selected test cases of 14-18 November 2002 and 23-26 November 2002. The results obtained in terms of QPF and QDF offer a sound basis to evaluate the sensitivity of the whole hydro-meteorological chain to the uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Different configurations of non-hydrostatic meteorological models are also analysed

Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins

Abstract. In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological purposes. After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key role played by temperature during snowy precipitation. In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event, which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase, influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total contributing area related to the snow line of the event. In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects which can radically modify the discharge forecast. Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological warning with a crucial snow line over the basin. The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall–runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano

Low Temperature Solution-Phase Deposition of SnS Thin Films

The solution-phase deposition of inorganic semiconductors is a promising, scalable method for the manufacture of thin film photovoltaics. Deposition of photovoltaic materials from molecular or colloidal inks offers the possibility of inexpensive, rapid, high-throughput thin film fabrication through processes such as spray coating. For example, CdTe, Cu(In,Ga)(S,Se)_2 (CIGS), and CH_3NH_3Pb(Cl,I)_3 perovskite-based thin film solar cells have been previously deposited using solution-based processes. Inks have also recently been developed for the solution deposition of Cu_2ZnSn(S,Se)_4 (CZTS) and FeS_2 (iron pyrite) absorber layers for thin film solar applications, in order to provide sustainable alternatives to materials that contain environmentally harmful heavy metals (e.g., Cd, Pb) and/or scarce elements (e.g., Te, In)

Batch and Flow Synthesis of Nucleosides by Enzymatic Transglycosylation

Enzymatic methods for the preparation of high-value products have clearly shown their potential in many areas, including nucleic acid chemistry. Enzymes of nucleic acid metabolism such as nucleoside phosphorylases (NPs, EC 2.4.2) can be conveniently used as biocatalysts in the synthesis of nucleoside analogues. These enzymes catalyze the reversible cleavage of the glycosidic bond of (deoxy)ribonucleosides in the presence of inorganic phosphate (Pi) to generate the nucleobase and \u3b1-D-(deoxy)ribose-1-phosphate (phosphorolysis). If a second nucleobase is added to the reaction medium, the formation of a new nucleoside can result (transglycosylation). Because of its broad substrate specificity [1,2], a purine nucleoside phosphorylase from Aeromonas hydrophila (AhPNP) was exploited to catalyze the \u201cone-pot, one-enzyme\u201d transglycosylation of 7-methylguanosine iodide with a series of 6-substituted purines, resulting in a moderate to high conversion (18-65%) of the bases into a 22-compound library of 6-substituted purine ribonucleosides [2]. Successively, AhPNP was covalently immobilized [3,4] in a pre-packed column containing aminopropyl silica particles. The resulting AhPNP-IMER (Immobilized Enzyme Reactor) was coupled on-line to a HPLC apparatus containing a semi-preparative chromatographic column. In such a system, \u201cone-enzyme\u201d transglycosylation and product purification were run in a single platform, affording a set of 6-modified purine ribonucleosides at a mg scale [4]. Using this \u201cflow-based\u201d approach, the synthesis of adenine nucleosides through a \u201ctwo-enzyme\u201d transglycosylation was carried out by connecting the AhPNP-IMER to uridine phosphorylase from Clostridium perfringens, immobilized on a silica monolithic column (CpUP-IMER)