Calibration of SARRA-H model for climatic risk zoning of cowpea in Eastern Amazon.

Esta pesquisa teve como objetivo calibrar e testar o modelo de cultura SARRA-H (Système d’Analyse Régionale des Risques Agroclimatologiques) para o caupi, bem como realizar o zoneamento de risco climático para esta cultura em uma região localizada na Amazônia Oriental, a fim de permitir a identificação de locais e datas de semeadura que favoreçam a produção considerando tanto o déficit hídrico como a probabilidade de ocorrência de chuvas severas durante o período da colheita. O modelo foi calibrado e validado com dados de experimentos realizados entre 2013 e 2016 no município de Castanhal, PA. As áreas de baixo risco climático foram definidas como aquelas que apresentaram índice de satisfação da necessidade hídrica (WRSI) maior ou igual a 0,5 na fase reprodutiva combinado com a ocorrência de chuvas abaixo de 20 mm na colheita por, pelo menos, 80% dos anos onde foi simulado o plantio. O modelo foi capaz de simular o balanço hídrico, crescimento e desenvolvimento do feijão-caupi nas condições climáticas e de solo da região estudada com boa precisão e exatidão. O período de ótima semeadura para o feijão-caupi compreende o intervalo entre 5 e 25 de junho para regiões localizadas acima de 2° S, e entre 25 de março e 15 de abril para regiões abaixo de 2º S

Spatial and Temporal Trends of Global Pollination Benefit

Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5′ by 5′ latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Genome-wide association study identifies novel loci associated with resistance to bovine tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis is a re-emerging disease of livestock that is of major economic importance worldwide, as well as being a zoonotic risk. There is significant heritability for host resistance to bovine TB (bTB) in dairy cattle. To identify resistance loci for bTB, we undertook a genome-wide association study in female Holstein–Friesian cattle with 592 cases and 559 age-matched controls from case herds. Cases and controls were categorised into distinct phenotypes: skin test and lesion positive vs skin test negative on multiple occasions, respectively. These animals were genotyped with the Illumina BovineHD 700K BeadChip. Genome-wide rapid association using linear and logistic mixed models and regression (GRAMMAR), regional heritability mapping (RHM) and haplotype-sharing analysis identified two novel resistance loci that attained chromosome-wise significance, protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor T (PTPRT; P=4.8 × 10(−7)) and myosin IIIB (MYO3B; P=5.4 × 10(−6)). We estimated that 21% of the phenotypic variance in TB resistance could be explained by all of the informative single-nucleotide polymorphisms, of which the region encompassing the PTPRT gene accounted for 6.2% of the variance and a further 3.6% was associated with a putative copy number variant in MYO3B. The results from this study add to our understanding of variation in host control of infection and suggest that genetic marker-based selection for resistance to bTB has the potential to make a significant contribution to bTB control