Dengue transmission risk in a changing climate: Bangladesh is likely to experience a longer dengue fever season in the future

Our changing climate is already affecting the transmission of dengue fever, the fastest growing vector-borne viral disease in the world. This issue presents a significant public health concern for some nations, such as Bangladesh, which already experience regular seasonal outbreaks of dengue fever under present day conditions. To provide guidance for proactive public health planning to potentially mitigate the severity of future outbreaks, we explored the impact of climate change on dengue infections by calculating the change in vectorial capacity (VC) of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes at a seasonal level for all regions in Bangladesh under two scenarios for future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. For each of the four climate models used, and for both scenarios, our analysis revealed that the annual VC remains at a level that would enable potential dengue epidemic transmission in all regions in Bangladesh. We found a slight decline in VC in half of the regions examined during the last two decades of the 21st century for the lower-concentration scenario, with a pronounced decline in VC in all geographic regions beginning in 2060 for the higher-concentration scenario. The likely reason is that in many regions, warming will lead to sub-optimal mosquito breeding temperatures. However, seasonal differences in VC will dissipate as the climate warms, to the point that there is almost no observable seasonality for the higher-concentration scenario during the last two decades of this century. This finding suggests the dengue transmission season could eventually extend to all-year-round transmission, with outbreaks occurring at any time. Consequently, disease surveillance and control activities would need to be geographically and temporally adapted to mitigate dengue epidemic risk in response to climate change

Atlantic multidecadal variability and the U.K. acsis program

Abstract Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the term used to describe the pattern of variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that is characterized by decades of basinwide warm or cool anomalies, relative to the global mean. AMV has been associated with numerous climate impacts in many regions of the world including decadal variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, hurricane activity, and sea level changes. Given its importance, understanding the physical processes that drive AMV and the extent to which its evolution is predictable is a key challenge in climate science. A leading hypothesis is that natural variations in ocean circulation control changes in ocean heat content and consequently AMV phases. However, this view has been challenged recently by claims that changing natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings are critical drivers of AMV. Others have argued that changes in ocean circulation are not required. Here, we review the leading hypotheses and mechanisms for AMV and discuss the key debates. In particular, we highlight the need for a holistic understanding of AMV. This perspective is a key motivation for a major new U.K. research program: the North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study (ACSIS), which brings together seven of the United Kingdom’s leading environmental research institutes to enable a broad spectrum approach to the challenges of AMV. ACSIS will deliver the first fully integrated assessment of recent decadal changes in the North Atlantic, will investigate the attribution of these changes to their proximal and ultimate causes, and will assess the potential to predict future changes.</jats:p

In the interests of time: Improving HIV allocative efficiency modelling via optimal time-varying allocations

Introduction: International investment in the response to HIV and AIDS has plateaued and its future level is uncertain. With many countries committed to ending the epidemic, it is essential to allocate available resources efficiently over different response periods to maximize impact. The objective of this study is to propose a technique to determine the optimal allocation of funds over time across a set of HIV programmes to achieve desirable health outcomes. Methods: We developed a technique to determine the optimal time-varying allocation of funds (1) when the future annual HIV budget is pre-defined and (2) when the total budget over a period is pre-defined, but the year-on-year budget is to be optimally determined. We use this methodology with Optima, an HIV transmission model that uses non-linear relationships between programme spending and associated programmatic outcomes to quantify the expected epidemiological impact of spending.We apply these methods to data collected from Zambia to determine the optimal distribution of resources to fund the right programmes, for the right people, at the right time. Results and discussion: Considering realistic implementation and ethical constraints, we estimate that the optimal time-varying redistribution of the 2014 Zambian HIV budget between 2015 and 2025 will lead to a 7.6% (7.3% to 7.8%) decrease in cumulative new HIV infections compared with a baseline scenario where programme allocations remain at 2014 levels. This compares to a 5.1% (4.6% to 5.6%) reduction in new infections using an optimal allocation with constant programme spending that recommends unrealistic programmatic changes. Contrasting priorities for programme funding arise when assessing outcomes for a five-year funding period over 5-, 10- and 20-year time horizons. Conclusions: Countries increasingly face the need to do more with the resources available. The methodology presented here can aid decision-makers in planning as to when to expand or contract programmes and to which coverage levels to maximize impact

The biological origin of linguistic diversity

In contrast with animal communication systems, diversity is characteristic of almost every aspect of human language. Languages variously employ tones, clicks, or manual signs to signal differences in meaning; some languages lack the noun-verb distinction (e.g., Straits Salish), whereas others have a proliferation of fine-grained syntactic categories (e.g., Tzeltal); and some languages do without morphology (e.g., Mandarin), while others pack a whole sentence into a single word (e.g., Cayuga). A challenge for evolutionary biology is to reconcile the diversity of languages with the high degree of biological uniformity of their speakers. Here, we model processes of language change and geographical dispersion and find a consistent pressure for flexible learning, irrespective of the language being spoken. This pressure arises because flexible learners can best cope with the observed high rates of linguistic change associated with divergent cultural evolution following human migration. Thus, rather than genetic adaptations for specific aspects of language, such as recursion, the coevolution of genes and fast-changing linguistic structure provides the biological basis for linguistic diversity. Only biological adaptations for flexible learning combined with cultural evolution can explain how each child has the potential to learn any human language

Near-Field Analysis of Rectangular Waveguide Probes Used for Imaging

Near-field microwave imaging of composite structures has received considerable attention recently. The success achieved on the experimental level motivated the development of a theoretical model to describe the high quality images obtained using near-field microwave imaging [1–4]. This theoretical model will also help in building an intuitive understanding of the behavior of the fields inside dielectric materials in the near-field of an open-ended rectangular waveguide probe. A near-field microwave image is the result of several factors such as probe type (example rectangular waveguide, circular waveguide or coaxial line), field properties (i.e. main lobe, sidelobes and half power beam width, etc.), geometrical and physical properties of both the defect and the material under inspection. Thus, in order to characterize a defect, the effect of all non-defect factors needs to be taken out of an image. One of the dominant non-defect factors which influences an image significantly is the radiator field properties. Thus, it is essential to formulate the properties of the fields radiating out of an open-ended rectangular waveguide in its near-field. This knowledge will aid in formulating the forward problem when imaging a defect, and will be used to solve the inverse problem for obtaining defect properties. In this paper fields radiating out of an open-ended rectangular waveguide, into an infinite half-space of a dielectric material, are calculated and used to explain some of the features observed in experimental near-field microwave images

Chromatophore Activity during Natural Pattern Expression by the Squid Sepioteuthis lessoniana: Contributions of Miniature Oscillation

Squid can rapidly change the chromatic patterns on their body. The patterns are created by the expansion and retraction of chromatophores. The chromatophore consists of a central pigment-containing cell surrounded by radial muscles that are controlled by motor neurons located in the central nervous system (CNS). In this study we used semi-intact squid (Sepioteuthis lessoniana) displaying centrally controlled natural patterns to analyze spatial and temporal activities of chromatophores located on the dorsal mantle skin. We found that chromatophores oscillated with miniature expansions/retractions at various frequencies, even when the chromatic patterns appear macroscopically stable. The frequencies of this miniature oscillation differed between “feature” and “background” areas of chromatic patterns. Higher frequencies occurred in feature areas, whereas lower frequencies were detected in background areas. We also observed synchronization of the oscillation during chromatic pattern expression. The expansion size of chromatophores oscillating at high frequency correlated with the number of synchronized chromatophores but not the oscillation frequency. Miniature oscillations were not observed in denervated chromatophores. These results suggest that miniature oscillations of chromatophores are driven by motor neuronal activities in the CNS and that frequency and synchrony of this oscillation determine the chromatic pattern and the expansion size, respectively

Decadal changes of the Western Arabian sea ecosystem

Historical data from oceanographic expeditions and remotely sensed data on outgoing longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed and ocean color in the western Arabian Sea (1950–2010) were used to investigate decadal trends in the physical and biochemical properties of the upper 300 m. 72 % of the 29,043 vertical profiles retrieved originated from USA and UK expeditions. Increasing outgoing longwave radiation, surface air temperatures and sea surface temperature were identified on decadal timescales. These were well correlated with decreasing wind speeds associated with a reduced Siberian High atmospheric anomaly. Shoaling of the oxycline and nitracline was observed as well as acidification of the upper 300 m. These physical and chemical changes were accompanied by declining chlorophyll-a concentrations, vertical macrofaunal habitat compression, declining sardine landings and an increase of fish kill incidents along the Omani coast

Representation of Time-Varying Stimuli by a Network Exhibiting Oscillations on a Faster Time Scale

Sensory processing is associated with gamma frequency oscillations (30–80 Hz) in sensory cortices. This raises the question whether gamma oscillations can be directly involved in the representation of time-varying stimuli, including stimuli whose time scale is longer than a gamma cycle. We are interested in the ability of the system to reliably distinguish different stimuli while being robust to stimulus variations such as uniform time-warp. We address this issue with a dynamical model of spiking neurons and study the response to an asymmetric sawtooth input current over a range of shape parameters. These parameters describe how fast the input current rises and falls in time. Our network consists of inhibitory and excitatory populations that are sufficient for generating oscillations in the gamma range. The oscillations period is about one-third of the stimulus duration. Embedded in this network is a subpopulation of excitatory cells that respond to the sawtooth stimulus and a subpopulation of cells that respond to an onset cue. The intrinsic gamma oscillations generate a temporally sparse code for the external stimuli. In this code, an excitatory cell may fire a single spike during a gamma cycle, depending on its tuning properties and on the temporal structure of the specific input; the identity of the stimulus is coded by the list of excitatory cells that fire during each cycle. We quantify the properties of this representation in a series of simulations and show that the sparseness of the code makes it robust to uniform warping of the time scale. We find that resetting of the oscillation phase at stimulus onset is important for a reliable representation of the stimulus and that there is a tradeoff between the resolution of the neural representation of the stimulus and robustness to time-warp. Author Summary Sensory processing of time-varying stimuli, such as speech, is associated with high-frequency oscillatory cortical activity, the functional significance of which is still unknown. One possibility is that the oscillations are part of a stimulus-encoding mechanism. Here, we investigate a computational model of such a mechanism, a spiking neuronal network whose intrinsic oscillations interact with external input (waveforms simulating short speech segments in a single acoustic frequency band) to encode stimuli that extend over a time interval longer than the oscillation's period. The network implements a temporally sparse encoding, whose robustness to time warping and neuronal noise we quantify. To our knowledge, this study is the first to demonstrate that a biophysically plausible model of oscillations occurring in the processing of auditory input may generate a representation of signals that span multiple oscillation cycles.National Science Foundation (DMS-0211505); Burroughs Wellcome Fund; U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Researc

Deletion of parasite immune modulatory sequences combined with immune activating signals enhances vaccine mediated protection against filarial nematodes

&lt;p&gt;Background: Filarial nematodes are tissue-dwelling parasites that can be killed by Th2-driven immune effectors, but that have evolved to withstand immune attack and establish chronic infections by suppressing host immunity. As a consequence, the efficacy of a vaccine against filariasis may depend on its capacity to counter parasite-driven immunomodulation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methodology and Principal Findings: We immunised mice with DNA plasmids expressing functionally-inactivated forms of two immunomodulatory molecules expressed by the filarial parasite Litomosoides sigmodontis: the abundant larval transcript-1 (LsALT) and cysteine protease inhibitor-2 (LsCPI). The mutant proteins enhanced antibody and cytokine responses to live parasite challenge, and led to more leukocyte recruitment to the site of infection than their native forms. The immune response was further enhanced when the antigens were targeted to dendritic cells using a single chain Fv-αDEC205 antibody and co-administered with plasmids that enhance T helper 2 immunity (IL-4) and antigen-presenting cell recruitment (Flt3L, MIP-1α). Mice immunised simultaneously against the mutated forms of LsALT and LsCPI eliminated adult parasites faster and consistently reduced peripheral microfilaraemia. A multifactorial analysis of the immune response revealed that protection was strongly correlated with the production of parasite-specific IgG1 and with the numbers of leukocytes present at the site of infection.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: We have developed a successful strategy for DNA vaccination against a nematode infection that specifically targets parasite-driven immunosuppression while simultaneously enhancing Th2 immune responses and parasite antigen presentation by dendritic cells.&lt;/p&gt